Met Office Fail Again
By Paul Homewood
For us lucky souls living in the UK, April has been a pretty miserable month, cold, wet and windy. Next week does not seem much better either.
So how did the lads down at the Met Office fare with their forecast for the month. Silly question, I suppose.
On 26th March they issued their 3 month outlook (available here). They had this to say about precipitation.
The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months.
Well I suppose anybody can make a mistake and, after all, who could have predicted that these cloud things might drop a bit of rain or two. But surely, you ask, they must have at least forecast temperatures correctly?
For April the forecast also favours temperatures being warmer than the 1971-2000 reference period. …….The probability that mean UK temperature for April-May-June will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is 55-60% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
Oh dear! A warmer than average May and June as well. I guess I might as well put the BBQ back in the garage.