Muller’s Alabama Temperatures Hopelessly Inaccurate
By Paul Homewood
It is nearly a year since Professor Muller published his BEST global temperature figures, which made so many headlines at the time. WUWT has neatly summarised some of the fundamental errors Muller made, so I won’t revisit old ground. However the Sunshine Hours blog has highlighted some more problems. I would highly recommending his post on this in full as he has done a lot of work collating the data. You can read it here.
In essence though it seems that there are some huge discrepancies between the BEST figures and the official NCDC ones for parts of the USA. Compare these two graphs.
Annual 1910 – 2011 Trend = -0.13 degF / Decade
It is well known and accepted by the NCDC that Alabama, along with the rest of the South East of the US has bucked the trend by getting cooler since their records began in 1895. The trend since 1910 has been a decline of 0.13F/decade as their graph shows.
So why does BEST show a warming trend? According to the table shown below their graph (click on their website for this), the Mean Rate of Change per Century in Alabama since 1910 has been an increase of 0.40C/century (0.72F), so there is a difference of 2.02F/century. Remember as well that NCDC figures are already fully adjusted for TOBS and other factors and that the raw figures show a greater cooling trend than NCDC does. (See footnote).
All this raises the question – do the same discrepancies exist in other parts of the US, and indeed globally? Of course it could be that NCDC’s figures are hopelessly wrong, but perhaps in that case someone should tell them.
The graph below is produced by NOAA, and shows the difference between the old “divisional datasets” that were based on raw temperatures, and the new “ GHCN version” that contains adjustments for TOBS etc. From the 1930’s to the present the new version adds a warming trend of about a degree fahrenheit. It is this new version that the NCDC graph is based on.
So there are now two sets of warming trends introduced:-
RAW + WARMING TREND = NCDC
NCDC + WARMING TREND = BEST