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Global Temperature Updates–November 2012

December 21, 2012

By Paul Homewood

 

  RSS UAH HADCRUT4 GISS
November 2012 Anomaly 0.20 0.28 0.51 0.69
Increase/Decrease From Last Month -0.09 -0.06 -0.01 0.01
12 Month Running Average 0.19 0.15 0.44 0.53
Average 2002-11 0.26 0.19 0.47 0.55
1998 Annual 0.55 0.42 0.52 0.59
Nov 2012 v 1998 -0.35 -0.14 -0.01 +0.10

 

For a change this month, I have focussed in the 2001-2011 period on the graphs. This shows recent trends much more clearly.

 

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Comments

  • 12 month averages on all four sets are still below the 2002-11 baseline.
  • Satellite figures continue to diverge from GISS, with HADCRUT somewhere in the middle.
  • Comparison of all four sets, using 1998 as the baseline, confirms just how much GISS has diverged, and raises serious credibility issues about the latter.
  • If current levels are maintained for the next year, GISS will be showing 2013 as hotter than 1998, (and, indeed, 2010!)
  • RSS and UAH seem to best reflect the ENSO changes this year, which saw the La Nina fizzling out in February and being replaced by a mild El Nino, which lasted up to August,(see below). In contrast, there have been some erratic movements on GISS this year, whilst HADCRUT reflects the change from La Nina to El Nino, but has not yet picked up the return to ENSO neutral conditions.

 

ENSO Changes

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

 

In the March/April period, the MEI turned positive. Although it has now returned near to zero, at its peak in June/July, it reached 1.139, a comparable level to previous moderate El Nino events, such as 2005.

The figures for the year are:-

 

Dec 2011 /Jan 2012 -1.046
Jan/Feb -0.702
Feb/March -0.410
March/Apr 0.059
Apr/May 0.706
May/Jun 0.903
Jun/Jul 1.139
Jul/Aug 0.579
Aug/Sep 0.271
Sep/Oct 0.103
Oct/Nov 0.166

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

 

It also appears that we are heading for at least a few months at ENSO neutral conditions. The last time there was a long period of neutral conditions was April 2001-March 2002, when the MEI averaged –0.003. It should therefore be possible to make some meaningful comparisons over the next few months, if neutral conditions hold.

Taking HADCRUT as an example, the average anomaly from April 2001-March 2002 was 0.50C, and the current month stands at 0.51C. If it stays around this level for the coming months, a strong case is made that there has been no underlying warming for 10 years.

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2 Comments leave one →
  1. Brian H permalink
    December 23, 2012 5:01 pm

    GISS is an outlier, which must be truncated from the data set(s).

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