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NOAA Deception Over 2012 Heatwave

January 26, 2013

By Paul Homewood

 

As part of their “2012 Second Most Extreme Year” propaganda, NOAA include a section entitled “Summer Days over 100F”. They comment:-

The nation has experienced its warmest and 2nd warmest summers in back-to-back years. The heatwave that gripped the Southern Plains in 2011 was intense and long lasting, resulting a record warm June-August for several southern states. While the summer heatwave in 2012 was not as intense, it was further reaching. In 2012, approximately one-third of the nation’s population experienced ten or more days of 100°F temperatures.

They then show the map below.

image

 

 

 

An unaware reader would be excused for thinking that this was all utterly unprecedented, but, if they do they, will have been tricked.

The first thing to notice is that NOAA offer nothing against which to compare these numbers. So let’s help them out.

Kansas certainly lies at the heart of the summer heatwave in both 2011 and 2012.

 

NOAA, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information ServiceNational Climatic Data Center, U.S. Department of Commerce

page delimiter

Climate At A Glance

Summer (Jun-Aug) Temperature
Kansas


 

image

A quick look at the NCDC graph of summer temperatures for Kansas shows straightaway that NOAA have not been telling the whole truth. Temperatures were much higher in 1934 and 1936. Indeed there have been eight summers, since 1895, that have been hotter than 2012.

But what about days over 100F. I hear you ask!

Horton is a small town in Kansas, with a population of 1776. According to the metadata, the USHCN station has been in exactly the same spot since 1893. The original hand written monthly meteorological records are available for all USHCN stations, via NOAA’s website. These list daily temperature observations, as in the example below from July 1934.

 

image

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-3F639F96-1006-4BE0-9CC8-05B9425DEA26.pdf

 

Using these records, let’s compare the summers of 2011 and 2012, with those of 1934, 1936 and 1980.

 

Year Days 100F & Over Days 106F & Over
1934 49 27
1936 43 24
1980 25 8
2011 5 0
2012 17 1

 

Clearly, the heatwave was much longer and more intense in both 1934 and 1936, and even 1980. The hottest day last year was 106F, but these sort of temperatures were commonplace in previous years. Indeed, in 1934, the temperature reached 111F on three separate days, while two years later there were two days which were even hotter, at 112F.

 

Nobody is denying that the summer last year was unusually warm, both in Kansas and the rest of the US. However, for NOAA to publish the information, that they have, without putting it into context, is misleading and dishonest.

NOAA, it seems, are making a habit of this. Jane Lubchenko’s claim that “Scientific integrity is at the core of producing and using good science. By being open and honest about our science, we build understanding and trust” rings rather hollow these days.

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18 Comments leave one →
  1. Andy DC permalink
    January 26, 2013 11:52 pm

    Thanks, Paul for excellent documentation that the 1930′s were overall considerably hotter than the last 2 summers. The 1930′s are the dirty little secret that the alarmists are desperate to hide.

    • boodybull permalink
      January 27, 2013 5:46 pm

      the same sort of thing has happened in Australia. the 1930′s were very hot here, same years too and other years as well (like 1896) but somebody decided to erase (lost?) the very hottest of days changing the record temperatures that are still located in old newspapers! this altered the graphs (how could that have been an accident?) that fraudulently shows australia has been warming. australias official record temp at oodnadatta (i think thats how its spelt lol) is 51. 1 degrees celsius (124 f) and has been beaten, according to old newspapers, many times in many places. there are articles on this out there its just been a few weeks, its late and i am going to bed! sorry for no links.

  2. Gary H permalink
    January 27, 2013 7:13 pm

    Would certainly be interesting to see a similar analysis for OK and TX.

    And anyone — the GISS – GISS Surface Temperature Analysis site. . . has been down for quite some time; here — http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/. Anytime one tries to click on a location to access the data, you get “Page Not Available” w/ this note: —

    Please Note —
    Due to technical problems with the GISS webserver, no interactive content, such as creating scientific plots using web forms or searching the publications database, is currently enabled.

    Are they busy making more adjustments?

    • January 27, 2013 7:20 pm

      I spoke to Reto about it a week ago. He seems as fed up as me!

      • Anthony Bremner permalink
        January 30, 2013 4:02 am

        The whole site went down on Jan 9th after I complained to Reto about 4 yrs of data missing from most of the city graphs. He was unaware of the problem and blamed NOAA/NCDC for the incorrect data. Did he have any explanation ? Perhaps he is an honest scientist who refuses to publish false data?

  3. William Lippincott permalink
    January 28, 2013 5:12 pm

    A strong rebuttal to NOAA’s assertion. But … I am uncomfortable with the focus solely on Kansas [and the Horton station?]. It would be better with stronger national or (better) continental representation.

  4. James permalink
    January 31, 2013 5:10 pm

    Ridiculous post….he cherry picks one spot, Horton KS, which was in NE KS, away from the super dome of heat. Why not compare the entire state, and include low temperatures as well…? Oh wait, if you did, your silly post would fall flat on its face. If the 1930s were so dam hot, then why did so many places and states break records for the hottest summers on record, including the state of Oklahoma during the past two summers? This type of cherry picking data does nothing to promote science, rather it shows how to manipulate the masses….

  5. ianh permalink
    February 19, 2013 1:23 am

    “The nation has experienced its warmest and 2nd warmest summers in back-to-back years.”

    True.

    “The heatwave that gripped the Southern Plains in 2011 was intense and long lasting,”

    True.

    “resulting a record warm June-August for several southern states.

    True

    “While the summer heatwave in 2012 was not as intense, it was further reaching.”

    True.

    “In 2012, approximately one-third of the nation’s population experienced ten or more days of 100°F temperatures.”

    True.

    What’s the problem? It’s all true.

    “An unaware reader would be excused for thinking that this was all utterly unprecedented, but, if they do they, will have been tricked. The first thing to notice is that NOAA offer nothing against which to compare these numbers.”

    And an unaware reader of your posts would be excused for thinking that the year 2012 in the US wasn’t as warm as years in the 1930s. Even though 2012 broke prior records by a mile. http://www.the9billion.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/hottest-us-year.jpg

    See two can play the “they didn’t mention it” game.

  6. Mike K. permalink
    August 29, 2013 6:16 pm

    NOAA: “The nation has experienced its warmest and 2nd warmest summers in back-to-back years. The heatwave that gripped the Southern Plains in 2011 was intense and long lasting, resulting a record warm June-August for several southern states.”

    This seems easy to understand, both statements are straightforward and both statements are true & correct. I am having no problem determining the meaning.

    • August 29, 2013 6:37 pm

      You need to pay attention to what they don’t tell you.

      The heatwaves of 1934 and 1936 were much more intense in the southern plain states than either 2011 or 2012.

      e.g Oklahoma

      http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/02/01/oklahoma-summer-much-hotter-in-1934/

      Even the EPA admit heatwaves were much, much worse in the 1930′s.

      http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/11/30/epa-say-heatwaves-much-worse-in-1930s/

      http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/weather-climate/high-low-temps.html

      • Mike K. permalink
        August 31, 2013 3:49 am

        NOAA : “The nation has experienced its warmest and 2nd warmest summers in back-to-back years. The heat wave that gripped the Southern Plains in 2011 was intense and long lasting, resulting a record warm June-August for several southern states.”

        The NOAA statements are not based on a tally of the high temperatures of each day, The NOAA assertion is based on the average temperature for the entire 24 hour day, not on the high temperatures of the day. Likewise, the NOAA calculation is based on the average temperature for the entire month and the average temperature for the entire summer season not on a tally of the daily highs, but on the average temperature for each day. If you look at the graphs and the data it becomes readily apparent the low temperatures of the day, are, as a long range trend, becoming warmer and of course this means the average temperature of the entire 24 hour day is also on the rise.

        NOAA states: “The nation has experienced its warmest and 2nd warmest summers in back-to-back years.” NOAA is basing this on the average temperature of the entire day, the average temperature of the entire month and the average temperature of the entire summer from the low of each day to the high of each day.

        NOAA is referring to the entire nation as a whole, not each individual state. Some states did not have their warmest summers ever in 2011 & 2012, but the 48 contiguous states together did have their warmest summer since records have been kept which allow making this determination possible.

        For instance to look at the average annual temperature for the entire State of Kansas, 1934 was 57.9678′ 1936 was 55.9001, 1954 was 57.8277, 2006 was 57.7476 and 2011 was 56.0026. The years 1934, 1954 and 2006 were the three years with the highest annual average temperature on record for the state of Kansas

        To look at the record there is no doubt a warming trend was occurring in the 20′s and 30′s and into the 40′s in Kansas. In the mid 40′s the warming trend stopped and a slight cooling trend began which lasted until about 1970. In 1970 a well defined warming trend began and that trend has continued to the present time.

      • August 31, 2013 9:17 am

        But the heatwave they talk about was not as intense as 1934 and 1936, when top temperatures were much higher.

        So why did not they tell us this?

        You do actually make a pertinent comment about the length of the heatwave. For instance, the Texas summer of 2011 was hotter than both 1934 and 1980, not because temperatures were higher, but because the heatwave lasted through to the end of August, whereas the others ended early in the month.

        This is an extremely important distinction, and one that NOAA should have made.

Trackbacks

  1. 2012 Didn’t Rank In The Top Ten For Hot Summer Afternoons | Real Science

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