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Latest Hurricane Stats From NOAA

April 28, 2013

By Paul Homewood

 

 

NOOA’s National Hurricane Centre keep records of all US landfalling hurricanes, starting in 1851. The decadal numbers are shown below, including 2012, which recorded two Cat 1’s, Isaac and Sandy.

 

 

 

Saffir-Simpson Category

 

1

2

3

4

5

ALL

3+

1851-60 8 5 5 1 0 19 6
1861-70 8 6 1 0 0 15 1
1871-80 7 6 7 0 0 20 7
1881-90 8 9 4 1 0 22 5
1891-00 8 5 5 3 0 21 8
1901-10 10 4 4 0 0 18 4
1911-20 10 4 4 3 0 21 7
1921-30 5 3 3 2 0 13 5
1931-40 4 7 6 1 1 19 8
1941-50 8 6 9 1 0 24 10
1951-60 8 1 5 3 0 17 8
1961-70 3 5 4 1 1 14 6
1971-80 6 2 4 0 0 12 4
1981-90 9 1 4 1 0 15 5
1991-00 3 6 4 0 1 14 5
2001-10 8 4 6 0 0 18 6
2003-12 10 4 6 1 0 21 7
Av/Decade 7.2 4.6 4.6 1.1 0.2 17.7 5.9

Number of US Landfalling Hurricanes

 

 

Figures 1&2 show the annual distribution of all hurricanes and major Cat 3+ ones, along with a 10-year running average.

 

image

Figure 1

 

image

Figure 2

 

Despite the busy seasons in 2004 and 2005, the 10 year trends show no increase since, and are not unusually high by historical standards. It is also perhaps significant that, despite these two years, current decadal averages for Cat 4 and Cat 5 storms are below average. This surely gives the lie to the claim that hurricanes are becoming more intense.

Remember, as well, that we are in the middle of the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or AMO. NOAA have this to say:-

 

During warm phases of the AMO, the numbers of tropical storms that mature into severe hurricanes is much greater than during cool phases,at least twice as many. Since the AMO switched to its warm phase around 1995, severe hurricanes have become much more frequent and this has led to a crisis in the insurance industry.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/faq/amo_faq.php

 

tsgcos.corr.78.146.138.16.117.7.34.3

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/tsanalysis.pl?tstype1=91&tstype2=0&year1=1900&year2=2012&itypea=0&axistype=0&anom=0&plotstyle=0&climo1=&climo2=&y1=&y2=&y21=&y22=&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=11&Submit=Calculate+Results

 

The busy hurricane seasons of the 1940’s and 50’s clearly correlate with the warm phase of the AMO, just as the quieter years in the 1970’s and 80’s do with the cold phase.

 

References

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

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7 Comments leave one →
  1. April 28, 2013 6:23 pm

    I believe that the reasons that there is a perception that weather events are becoming more intense is because insurance claims are rising, people are more settled, and people have more personal goods, all of which become relevant when weather events affect people.

  2. John F. Hultquist permalink
    April 29, 2013 2:38 am

    A couple of years does not constitute a trend. However, the AMO in the last year or two does not appear to be doing what it was told. If I understand the literature the AMO should be on its way to a peak in 2015, or 2020, or some time thereafter.

    The title of the chart claims “Jan to Dec: 1856 to 2013” . . .

    The http request under the chart seems to be asking for “1900 to (or thru) 2012” , and the chart displays those years.

    There is a set of numbers here:

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

    . . . that bring the index up thru March of 2013. As there are several ways of reporting the AMO these may not be exactly the same thing. Either way, this doesn’t seem to be a concept that is easy to work with nor one to bet a company’s future on.

  3. April 29, 2013 3:49 pm

    Mark Vogan suggested this could be an more active season.

    Eye balling the charts the 50s seemed comparable reminding me of Joe Bastardi’s thoughts over the past few years. The current Weatherbell Hurricaine forecast for 2013 goes with this as well

    March 30, 2013
    A wild season is on the way, and the “major hit drought” on the US coast should end. In fact, multiple major hits are likely this year with the cold PDO, warm AMO decadal signal favoring the East Coast, as in the 1950s.

    http://www.weatherbell.com/2013-Hurricane-Season-Forecast

  4. mkelly permalink
    April 30, 2013 6:04 pm

    The last two lines of the Saffir chart double count 2003-2010.

    The largest number of hurricanes in a 50 year period was 1871-1920 with 102 and those were cold years. At least colder than today. So much for the rapidly rising temperature causing lots of hurricanes.

    • April 30, 2013 6:22 pm

      Yes that’s right. I wanted to show the latest 10 yrs, as well as 2001-10.

      I also have grave doubts about the low figures in the 1860′s. There must have been more important things to do at that time than count hurricanes!

Trackbacks

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