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Back To School For Baroness Verma

October 28, 2014

By Paul Homewood  

 

All you need to know about the relationship between annual CO2 emissions and global temperatures. 

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.4.3.0.0.annual_ns_avg.txt

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/

Baroness Verma In Wonderland

October 27, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Paul2

image

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2809995/Government-measures-slowed-global-warming-Energy-minister-claims-policies-playing-role-curbing-rising-temperature.html

 

 

We really are ruled by cretins. Which planet are these idiots living on?

 

Just for the record, these are the CO2 emissions for 2008 and last year (million tonnes carbon).

 

  2008 2013 Inc/(Dec)
UK 142 126 (16)
Rest of World 8641 9735 1094

 

 

Or, to look at it in another way.

 

image

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/

 

 

What has she been smoking to imagine that the UK’s reduction of 16 million tonnes can have had the slightest effect on climate, when the Rest of the World has increased their emissions by 68 times as much?

And, God forbid, this ludicrous woman is actually an Energy Minister! Heaven help us all.

Comparing Temperature Trends At Valentia & Shannon Airport

October 27, 2014
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood     

 

We’ve seen how the GHCN record for Ireland is heavily reliant on airport sites, and that high quality rural stations such as Valentia have had artificial warming trends introduced via the homogenisation process, as they have been compared with urban sites.

How much difference might all this make?

 

We can compare the temperature records of Valentia and Shannon Airport, which are only 78 miles apart.

 

Bear in mind the following chart is based on the unadjusted GHCN temperatures.

 

image

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data_v2/

 

 

It can be seen that the temperature trend at Valentia is much less than Shannon’s. Indeed. the latter is nearly 1C/century greater.

 

Read more…

Cooling The Past In Ireland

October 27, 2014

By Paul Homewood 

 

Let’s take a closer look at the GHCN temperature record for Ireland.

 

I mentioned earlier that GHCN adjustments had added a false warming trend to the temperature record at the long running, high quality rural site at Valentia Observatory. It turns out that the situation is actually much worse.

Altogether, there are seven current temperature stations in Ireland, which are used by GHCN. Four of these are airport sites, and only three rural.

 

Rural
Valentia
Belmullet
Malin Head
 
Urban
Cork Airport
Shannon Airport
Casement Airport
Dublin Airport

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/v3.temperature.inv.txt

 

 

 

According to the GHCN database, four of these, including the rural sites at Valentia and Malin Head, have been artificially adjusted upwards. The remaining four sites are unchanged.

 

 

62103953000

62103980000

62103969000

62103955000

 

 

So we find that the GHCN record for the whole of Ireland is based heavily on airport/urban sites, with artificial warming adjustments added at four of the seven sites, including two of the three rural ones.

At none of the sites has any allowance been made for UHI, despite the rapid growth of the airports concerned.   

The GHCN record for Ireland bears no resemblance to reality. The whole thing is a joke.

 

 

NOTE

According to GISS, who in turn source the data from GHCN, the Dublin station is at the airport. However, according to the Station Metadata Database, maintained by NOAA, the station (confirmed by the GHCN reference number) is at Phoenix Park in Dublin.

Meanwhile, the Irish Met Service have data for both sites!

Wind Power Can Never Deliver Energy Security

October 27, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

image

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/windpower/11186206/Wind-farms-can-never-be-relied-upon-to-deliver-UK-energy-security.html

 

 

My first reaction was no s*** Sherlock!

But a report out by the Adam Smith Institute includes some detailed modelling. The Telegraph report:

 

Wind farms can never be relied upon to keep the lights on in Britain because there are long periods each winter in which they produce barely any power, according to a new report by the Adam Smith Institute.

The huge variation in wind farms’ power output means they cannot be counted on to produce energy when needed, and an equivalent amount of generation from traditional fossil fuel plants will be needed as back-up, the study finds.

Wind farm proponents often claim that the intermittent technology can be relied upon because the wind is always blowing somewhere in the UK.

But the report finds that a 10GW fleet of wind farms across the UK could “guarantee” to provide less than two per cent of its maximum output, because “long gaps in significant wind production occur in all seasons”.

Modelling the likely output from the 10GW fleet found that for 20 weeks in a typical year the wind farms would generate less than a fifth (2GW) of their maximum power, and for nine weeks it would be less than a tenth (1GW).

Output would exceed 9GW, or 90 per cent of the potential, for just 17 hours.

Read more…

Temperature Adjustments At Valentia Observatory

October 27, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

A little bit more information on Valentia Observatory, the long running, high quality, rural site in Ireland. As we saw yesterday, GHCN algorithms had added an artificial warming trend, based on trends from nearby urban sites.

 

First, the GHCN plots showing the unadjusted and adjusted data.

 

62103953000

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v3/products/stnplots/6/62103953000.gif

 

Let’s home in on the graphs, to see them more clearly. The top, red, plot is the unadjusted trend.

Essentially, all temperatures prior to 1967 have been arbitrarily reduced by 0.4C. There is nothing in the temperature record to suggest any break points.

 

62103953000

 

 

Read more…

Urbanisation Bias In The GHCN Dataset

October 26, 2014
tags:

By Paul Homewood    

 

A few months ago, I reported on a paper from Ronan Connolly which revealed serious flaws in the UHI adjustments produced by GISS. The effect of these problems was that UHI adjustments were almost certainly understated.

 

Ronan has also produced another paper, analysing UHI bias in the GHCN series, “Urbanization bias III. Estimating the extent of bias in the Historical Climatology Network datasets”.

 

 

ABSTRACT

 

xGHCN_urban_ratio

 

The extent to which two widely-used monthly temperature datasets are affected by urbanization bias was considered. These were the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN). These datasets are currently the main data sources used to construct the various weather station-based global temperature trend estimates.

Although the global network nominally contains temperature records for a large number of rural stations, most of these records are quite short, or are missing large periods of data. Only eight of the records with data for at least 95 of the last 100 years are for completely rural stations.

In contrast, the U.S. network is a relatively rural dataset, and less than 10% of the stations are highly urbanized. However, urbanization bias is still a significant problem, which seems to have introduced an artificial warming trend into current estimates of U.S. temperature trends.

The homogenization adjustments developed by the National Climatic Data Center to reduce the extent of non-climatic biases in the networks were found to be inadequate, inappropriate and problematic for urbanization bias. As a result, the current estimates of the amount of “global warming” since the Industrial Revolution have probably been overestimated.

 http://oprj.net/articles/climate-science/34

 

Read more…

The Australian Youth Climate Coalition

October 25, 2014

By Paul Homewood 

 

Backlash: This AYCC billboard was the target of criticism

image

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2806024/Climate-change-action-group-forced-pull-proposed-billboard-image-critics-accuse-paedophilic-overtones.html

 

  

I always find it ironic.

 

Thirty years ago, left wingers were fighting attempts to shut down loss making coal mines.

 

So, who are the Australian Youth Climate Coalition? According to their website:

 

We believe that climate change is the single greatest threat facing humanity, and puts young people and future generations at risk. We also believe that addressing the climate crisis is our biggest opportunity to create a world that is more sustainable, just and fair.

We believe that the only way to solve the climate crisis is through a social movement – a groundswell of support and momentum that is powerful enough to inspire the change we need and hold decision-makers to account. This will require thousands of people committed to changing hearts and minds and willing to take deep action

At the AYCC we believe that the best way to build this movement is to give young people the tools to make it happen. It’s our future at stake, and it’s our creativity and vision that will inspire those around us to act.

That’s why since 2007 we’ve helped thousands of young Australians take action in their schools, their universities, and their communities, and take part in campaigns that put climate change in the national spotlight.

The AYCC now has more than 80,000 members, 100 local groups, and more than 500 regular volunteers.

 

 

 

Simply translated, we brainwash a load of impressionable youngsters, who have not quite worked out yet where the electricity comes from to power their iPads, or the fuel to run their daddies’ cars to ferry them around where they want, or the energy to sustain their very comfortable way of living.

I do not wish to mock. We have all been there before, and then we grew out of it. But that does not mean we should pay the least attention to any of the nonsense they spout.

 

But, more pertinently, who is funding this nonsense?

 

Well, according to the AYCC website, three donors.

 

Read more…

Greens Lose The Plot

October 25, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

A couple of letters in last week’s Sunday Telegraph, regarding the debate over Owen Paterson’s speech and the Climate Change Act. One fairly sensible, the other – well, I’ll let you decide!

 

Scan

 

 

 

Well, let’s see just how complicit we are.

 

These are the CO2 emissions from CDIAC for 2010 to 2012 (million tonnes of carbon).

 

  2010 2012 Increase/(Dec)
UK 134 128 (6)
China 2259 2625 366

 

So, in just nine months China has added more CO2 than the UK emits in total.

Perhaps the good doctor would like to explain what difference it will make even if the UK eliminates all of its emissions? He might then like to consider standing as a Green Party candidate in downtown Beijing!

Sea Level Rise Not Accelerating Around North Sea

October 25, 2014
tags:

By Paul Homewood 

 

There was a paper out last year, Interannual and long term mean sea level changes along the North Sea coastline by Wahl et al, which looked at long term tidal gauge records around the North Sea.

 

image

 

They clearly show that sea levels began rising in the last couple of decades of the 19thC. Apart from a slow down in the 1960’s and 70’s, the rate of rise during the period has been pretty much constant.

 

image

 

 

 

The authors conclude:

 

Linear long term trends in the Inner North Sea (1.6 mm/yr) are similar to global trends (1.7 mm/yr) but smaller in the English Channel (1.2 mm/yr).

Although the recent rates of sea level rise were high, there is no evidence yet that sea level rise has accelerated over the last decades in the North Sea region….

In summary, the results presented here show that the recent rates of SLR in the North Sea were high but not unusual to what has been observed at other times in the 19th

and 20th century.

 

None of this should come as any surprise to anyone who has read my posts on sea level rise around the UK.