Letter to My MP Sent
By Paul Homewood
I have now sent the letter to my local MP, about the Climate Change Act.
Thanks for all of the comments, most of which I have incorporated.
I will be publishing any reply I get.
BTW – If anybody is doing the same, please send any replies you get to me, as I would like to either print them, or collate the results.
April Global Temperatures
By Paul Homewood
GISS figures are now out for April, so a quick look while we are waiting for HADCRUT.
| RSS | UAH | GISS | |
| April 2013 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| Change from last month | 0.01 | -0.08 | -0.09 |
| 12 month running average | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.59 |
| Average 2003-12 | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.58 |
| Change since Sep/Oct Peaks | -0.17 | -0.24 | -0.22 |
Temperatures have dropped sharply since Sep/Oct last year, when they peaked after the small El Nino, despite neutral conditions since.
12-month running averages are likely to fall over the next few months as these higher temperatures are taken out of the system.
The drop in April, is wholly limited to the Northern Hemisphere, on GISS figures, which have dropped 0.17C since March. The last time the annual GISS anomaly for the NH was as low as the current 0.61C was in 2000.
The GISS map below, showing temperature anomalies for April against the 2001-10 average, illustrates just how far temperatures have dropped. Note the top right hand corner, –0.10C is the amount by which global temperatures have changed this month compared to April figures for 2001-10.
By Paul Homewood
We looked yesterday at the report issued by an outfit called Living With Environmental Change, or LWEC, about the impact of climate change on biodiversity. But who are they?
According to their website:-
The LWEC Partnership: 22 public sector organisations that fund, carry out and use environmental research and observations. They include the UK research councils, government departments with environmental responsibilities, devolved administrations and government agencies. The private sector is represented by a Business Advisory Board
In other words, just another quango. The public sector organisations mentioned are basically a mix of government departments and agencies, along with some of the (government funded) Research Councils.
I was intrigued though to see who was on the Business Advisory Board. Surely this board should be there to provide private sector input as a counter balance to the prevailing public sector viewpoint, and inject a bit of realism to counter the academic approach.
If you did think this, you would be wrong. Let’s take a look at some of their bios.
Climate Change Impact On Biodiversity
By Paul Homewood
http://www.lwec.org.uk/resources/report-cards/biodiversity
I reported the other day about the new Channel 4 series concerning a “wildlife crisis caused by climate change in the UK”. Most of what they claimed was nothing more than unsubstantiated hype.
They say that the series is based around a new report from an outfit called “ Living With Environmental Change”, a partnership of 22 public sector organisations. So I thought I would delve into the report to see if it stands up to scrutiny.
The report, “Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Impacts” lists a number of statements under the heading, “ What Has Happened” :-
How Chichon & Pinatubo Affected Temperature Trends
By Paul Homewood
I questioned the other day whether there had been as much warming over the last three decades as is sometimes perceived, pointing out that last year’s temperature was only 0.17C higher than it was in 1981, based on RSS.
My choice of years was quite deliberate. Last year was, effectively, ENSO neutral, with La Nina fading out in March to be replaced by a small El Nino during the summer, a fact reinforced by temperatures dropping back down since October. Furthermore, last year’s temperature, as well as current ones, are below the 10-Year average.
So picking 2012 cannot be seen as cherry picking in any way, but what about 1981? That year was also ENSO neutral, and, although warmer than some of the bitterly cold years of the 70’s, was not as warm as 1944, as Figure 1 shows. In fact over the period of 1940-81, temperatures had been declining very slightly.
By Paul Homewood
h/t QV
http://www.channel4.com/news/green-pleasant-land-british-countryside-nature-crisis
According to Channel 4 News, the British countryside is facing unprecedented change with "wildlife in crisis". In a special series, “Green and Pleasant Land”, Channel 4 News finds iconic species and habitats facing wipeout.
The series, based on a report by Living With Environmental Change, started last night, with the following introduction.
Britain is being fast altered by a changing climate and an increase in extreme weather.
Climate has always varied, but it’s four seasons are more like two, and it is the pace of change that is destabilising the environment, which underpins our natural world.
The Channel 4 website gives some examples to back up these claims in the introduction to the series, but before we test them it is worth looking at the comment that they report from Martin Harper, head of the RSPB
“Our wildlife is in crisis. In just a few decades, we’ve lost 44 million birds from our skies, with some species plummeting as much as 90 per cent and facing a very real extinction.”
Just a few decades! This immediately blows a huge hole in Channel 4’s argument. Bird numbers were declining long before the recent uptick in UK temperatures, caused by a whole host of factors, such as agricultural and habitat changes. This point is reinforced by the next comment:-
Over 70 per cent of our butterfly species are in decline, as well as our bugs and insects on which our whole ecosystem depends, with only 2 per cent of our wildflower meadows still remaining. And the hedgehog is facing the same rapid decline as the tiger, dropping from 36 million in 1950 to just 1 million today.
It is not climate change that has removed 98% of our meadows, or started killing millions of hedgehogs in 1950.
But let’s now look at some of the programme’s specific claims.
Open Letter To My Local MP
By Paul Homewood
I know it’s been tried before, but I am writing to my Member of Parliament, to ask how she can justify continuing to support the UK Climate Change Act.
The draft is below. Any comments would be appreciated, and everyone is welcome to use this template if they wish.
New HADCRUT Version 4.2.0
By Paul Homewood
h/t Green Sand
The Hadley Centre have issued a new update to their HADCRUT4 series, Version 4.2.0.0
The changes from the previous Version 4.1.1.0 are only small, but nevertheless increase the warming trend, as my chart shows.
The changes all arise from modifications to the CRUTEM4 land series, so obviously the differences are much greater on this set, as the chart below shows.
The full reference notes are here.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/crutem4/data/CRUTEM.4.2.0.0_release_notes.html
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/versions/HadCRUT.4.2.0.0_release_notes.html
Global Temperature Updates–March 2013
By Paul Homewood
HADCRUT figures have finally been released, so we can have a look at the March numbers.
| RSS | UAH | HADCRUT4 | GISS | |
| March 2013 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| Change from last month | 0.01 | 0.18 | -0.07 | 0.10 |
| 12 month running average | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| Average 2003-12 | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| March 2013 v 1981-2010 Baseline | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.20 |
By Paul Homewood
h/t NIPCC
Chinese scientists have looked at precipitation records on the North China Plain, for the period 1960-2007.
In setting the stage for their study, Fan et al. (2012) write that "as the most important production area of food grains in China," the North China Plain (NCP) "is suffering from a serious water shortage problem, due to increasing water demand and limited available water resources," which situation could, in their words, "be exacerbated due to climate change, particularly changes in precipitation."
In an effort designed to determine what may have been happening in this regard over the past half-century, Fan et al. analyzed daily precipitation data from 47 representative stations in the NCP for changes in "the trend and amplitude of variation in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation, annual maximum continuous no-rain days, annual rain days, rainfall intensity, and rainfall extremes from 1960 to 2007, using the Man-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator."
According to the four researchers who conducted the study, "no significant changing trend was found for the annual, dry and wet season precipitation and rainfall extremes in the majority of [the] NCP," with the exception that "the northern part of [the] NCP was becoming wetter in [the] dry season and drier in [the] wet season." And in the case of maximum length of consecutive no-rain days, which they say is "an important drought indicator," they found that "of all the 47 stations, 35 stations showed a significant decreasing trend."
In commenting on their findings, the Chinese scientists say that "with global warming, seasonal variation of precipitation in [the] NCP tends to be declined … particularly in the semi-arid/sub-humid northern part." And with less variability in this regard, there are likely to be fewer precipitation extremes throughout this important region. In addition, they state that "as the maximum consecutive no-rain days occurred in [the] dry season, and also in the growing period of winter wheat, the decreasing trend could be a benefit for wheat growth."
All in all, therefore, a continuation of these precipitation trends would appear to be a significant positive development for the people of China.
Reference
Fan, L., Lu, C., Yang, B. and Chen, Z. 2012. Long-term trends of precipitation in the North China Plain. Journal of Geographic Sciences 22: 989-1001.
