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Krebs Worries About Heatwaves

July 23, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10955143/Hospitals-at-increasing-risk-of-overheating-due-to-climate-change.html

 

The Telegraph report:

 

Nine out of ten hospital wards may be at risk of overheating, increasing the dangers for vulnerable patients who are left sweltering in temperatures of more than 26C (78.8F), government advisers have warned.

Poor ventilation, thin walls, low ceilings and big windows that can barely be opened are contributing to temperatures far exceeding acceptable levels during hot weather, according to the Committee on Climate Change.

One fifth of domestic properties could also already be overheating, with flats especially vulnerable, it finds.

The number of people dying prematurely from overheating could triple to 7,000 per year by the 2050s as global warming makes deadly heatwaves of the kind seen in 2003 the norm, unless housing and hospitals are adapted to cope with the heat, the CCC says.

In a wide-ranging report chaired by Lord Krebs, the CCC – the government’s official climate change advisors – suggest England is ill-prepared for the increased heatwaves and flooding that are expected to arise from “inevitable” global warming in coming decades.

 

 

This all comes on top of the NHS Heatwave Plan, which essentially tells us to put sun tan cream on, drink plenty of fluids, and don’t sit in the sun too long. All the things my mum told many moons ago!

 

But is there any evidence that heatwaves are becoming more common, or hotter? Well, not according to the Central England Temperature Series, which lists daily temperatures back to 1878. From this, we can plot all of the days which hit 29C or higher.

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

 

The heatwaves of 2003 and 2006 stand out, just as the ones in 1975 and 76 do. It is clear, though, that the latter had more days above 29C.

 

No of Days 29C+
1975 4
1976 14
2003 5
2006 5

 

The hottest days recorded were in 1976 and 1990, hitting 33.2C. Meanwhile, since 2006, there has only been one day over 29C.

There is no evidence that the summers of 2003 and 2006 were anything other than weather, just as earlier summers had been. And there is certainly no evidence or pattern of such heatwaves increasing.

Indeed, there have been 43 days since 1878, which have recorded 30C or higher, yet it is now 8 years since the last. (The highest recorded this year so far is 23.7C in May- as at end of June).

 

The Telegraph notes:

The assessment of hospital wards comes from forthcoming Cambridge University research, which shows that temperatures are already exceeding 30C (86F) in some wards when the outside temperature is 22C (71.6F) – suggesting many hospital wards may have reached uncomfortably high temperatures during last week’s warm weather. 

Professor Alan Short, the author of the Cambridge research, said that most modern hospitals were all of a type prone to overheating, with the worst performers being “very lightweight 1960s buildings”, with lots of windows, often pointing southwards, that were restrained from opening, high occupancy and thin walls.

Health and safety rules “not to allow any windows to be opened by more than four inches” had the “unintended consequence” of preventing adequate ventilation, he said.

The only type of hospital identified as being resilient to overheating were “Nightingale ward” buildings, which the last Labour government vowed to eliminate because they involved large numbers of patients on mixed wards.

 

If this is really true, it is clear there has been a very real problem for decades. It is therefore sad that it has taken climate change alarmism to highlight the issue.

Hospitals, just as much as the rest of us, are having to pay more for their electricity as a result of the government’s climate change policies. Perhaps that money might have better employed installing a few air conditioners. Unfortunately, the government’s mad rush to save CO2 emissions will probably make that even more unlikely.

Footnote

I wrote this before I went on holiday last week, so it does not reflect the hot weather of the last few days.
I will be updating the graphs etc, once the Met Office confirm the numbers for July.
However my reading of the situation suggests that maybe one day last week crept up to 30C.

Pat Michaels comments on the Eisenmann Saga

July 23, 2014

WUWT has some follow up analysis on the recent Eisenmann paper, which claims that some of the expansion of Antarctic sea ice in recent years is spurious and due to incorrect measurements (though he does not know when!).

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/22/of-mountains-molehills-and-noisy-bumps-in-the-sea-ice-record/

The response is by Pat Michaels and Chip Knappenberger. There is little to add, but I found this comment by Pat summarises rather well how such nonsense gets to be published these days.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/22/of-mountains-molehills-and-noisy-bumps-in-the-sea-ice-record/#comment-1692415

Pat Michaels says:
July 22, 2014 at 10:28 pm

There is a reason I wrote that there were problems in the reviewing process “at all levels”. The authors who let this thing go had to have had one last look at it. But they signed off. They did this despite indications that running everything after 2004 would invalidate the result. The editor had to have had one last look at it, after seeing the peer reviews. But he signed off.

If I were Eisenman’s Department Chair, I would have him in the office tomorrow, to explain how he could publish such a misleading paper. I would also advise that this wasn’t a good idea for an Assistant Professor at a tier-one research university. I would have the coauthors subject to inquiry, also. If I were Copernicus, the publisher, I would have the editor in the office to explain.

And then I would seriously consider retracting the paper.

Polar bears and melting ice: three facts that shouldn’t surprise you | polarbearscience

July 22, 2014

http://polarbearscience.com/2014/07/20/polar-bears-and-melting-ice-three-facts-that-shouldnt-surprise-you/

The real facts about polar bears, but you won’t read them in USA Today.

Only about 3% of CO2 in atmosphere due to burning fossil fuels | Climate Change Dispatch

July 22, 2014

http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/only-about-3-of-co2-in-atmosphere-due-to-burning-fossil-fuels.html

According to this paper, only about 15 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere are due to burning fossil fuels.

Update

CCD have this comment from Denica Bozhinova, one of the authors of the study.

Denica Bozhinova 2014-07-23 16:57
A reply from the authors of the scientific article on the “review” on The Hockey Schtick blog has pointed out that the results cited are grossly misinterpreted and the blog has taken down the entire review and following comments.

As the post appears to have been taking down, I cannot offer any more details.

Denica also adds

Denica Bozhinova 2014-07-24 07:22
To be fair, I only notified the author of this entry for this issue yesterday. I am hoping he will correct it or note it somehow on his version as soon as possible.

Meanwhile if the authors care to provide a potted version of how they interpret their findings, I will be more than happy to publish.

Why Solar Will Never Work

July 21, 2014
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

image

http://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/news/chris_huhne_criticises_former_colleagues_on_renewables_policy_35872#.U7Vr1KL9xAM.twitter

 

It seems that a criminal record has not prevented Chris Huhne from being invited by the British Photovoltaic Association & DECC to give a keynote speech at their conference last week, designed to prop up the hugely inefficient and highly subsidised solar industry.

 

So it might be an appropriate time to look at just how little contribution solar power makes to the UK’s energy needs.

 

From the official DECC statistics, let’s compare solar output in Q3 last year, and Q1 this year.

 

  Q3 2013 Q1 2014
Capacity 2593MW 3481MW
Output @ 100% Utilisation 5678GWh 7623GWh
Actual Output 843GWh 294GWh
Actual Utilisation 14.8% 3.9%

 

 

So effectively, during winter months, solar output runs at about a quarter of the level that it does during summer. Indeed, it is even worse, as output in January will be even lower than the Q1 average, precisely at the time when energy demand is at its highest.

 

Total electricity generation during Q1 this year was 93.33TWh, so solar contributed just 0.3%.

 

But you won’t hear any of this from the criminal Huhne, or the obscenely subsidised industry that he touts for.

HH Lamb & The Early Holocene

July 20, 2014
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

Continuing my review of Hubert Lamb’s “Climate, History and the Modern World”, originally published in 1982, let’s take a look at what he had to say about the early holocene, between the end of the ice age and around 1000 BC.

 

 

He points out how the Sahara was a much wetter place than today, and how this began to change around 3000 BC, coinciding with the time of the Piora Oscillation, when glaciers began advancing in the Alps and elsewhere.

 

Scan

 

In Chapter 7, he goes into more detail.

 

Read more…

90 Degrees? Take Off That Jumper!

July 19, 2014

Public Health England, yet another Quango, issued its “Heatwave Plan 2014″ earlier in the year, for which I am sure we are all very grateful.

If anyone has not read it, and is worried they might melt or something, here is a list of their main tips:

Tips for coping in hot weather

The following advice applies to everybody when it comes to keeping cool and comfortable and reducing health risks:

    Shut windows and pull down the shades when it is hotter outside. If it’s safe, open them for ventilation when it is cooler.
    Avoid the heat: stay out of the sun and don’t go out between 11am and 3pm (the hottest part of the day) if you’re vulnerable to the effects of heat.
    Keep rooms cool by using shades or reflective material outside the windows. If this isn’t possible, use light-coloured curtains and keep them closed (metallic blinds and dark curtains can make the room hotter).
    Have cool baths or showers, and splash yourself with cool water.
    Drink cold drinks regularly, such as water and fruit juice. Avoid tea, coffee and alcohol.
    Stay tuned to the weather forecast on the radio or TV, or on the Met Office website.
    Plan ahead to make sure you have enough supplies, such as food, water and any medications you need.
    Identify the coolest room in the house so you know where to go to keep cool.
    Wear loose, cool clothing, and a hat if you go outdoors.
    Check up on friends, relatives and neighbours who may be less able to look after themselves

http://www.nhs.uk/Livewell/Summerhealth/Pages/Heatwave.aspx

Looks like I had better take my woolly hat, coat and scarf off, maybe my jumper too. How would we possibly manage without these quangocrats?

I understand they are now working on their “What to do when it rains plan”, which will include such gems as :

Wear a mac.
Take an umbrella with you.
Avoid puddles.
Don’t sit around with wet clothes on.
If you feel wet and cold when you come in, put the fire on and make a nice hot cup of tea.

Nurse, where’s the Shiraz?

Global Penguin Population Booms Despite Global Warming Fears | Climate Change Dispatch

July 18, 2014

http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/global-penguin-population-booms-despite-global-warming-fears.html

Remember when Al Gore and his cronies warned us that penguins were at risk from global warming?

It will come as no surprise that they were lying.

Wind subsidy harvesting industry’s reputation up in smoke: 10 times more fires than reported | Tallbloke’s Talkshop

July 17, 2014

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/07/17/wind-subsidy-harvesting-industrys-reputation-up-in-smoke-10-times-more-fires-than-reported/

Now I wonder why the wind industry won’t tell us the truth?

Carbon tax goes, snow falls. Sceptics celebrate | Climate Change Dispatch

July 17, 2014

http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/carbon-tax-goes-snow-falls-sceptics-celebrate.html

Seems like the Gore effect strikes again, as snow falls on Melbourne!