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Arctic Ice Minimum 2nd Highest Since 2006

September 26, 2014
tags:

By Paul Homewood 

 

Arctic sea ice extent certainly seems to have moved well past the minimum now. While NSIDC have this year’s extent slightly below last year’s, and therefore 3rd highest since 2006, both NORSEX and DMI rank this year’s extent above that of 2013, and therefore 2nd highest since 2006.

 

ssmi_ice_ext

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

 

icecover_current_new

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

 

 

 

DMI also maintain their old system, which masks out the coastal zones. On this system, this year’s extent is actually the highest since 2006.

bum

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

Colorado wildfires NOT MORE SEVERE since 1800s, says ‘massive’ UColorado study

September 26, 2014
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

Re-posted from Junk Science.

 

Bookmark this one.

 

More warmist myth goes up in smoke.

Media release below:

Colorado’s Front Range fire severity not much different than past, say CU study

Perception that present-day fires Front Range fires significantly worse than past not supported by evidence

The perception that Colorado’s Front Range wildfires are becoming increasingly severe does not hold much water scientifically, according to a massive new study led by the University of Colorado Boulder and Humboldt State University in Arcata, Calif.

The study authors, who looked at 1.3 million acres of ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forest from Teller County west of Colorado Springs through Larimer County west and north of Fort Collins, reconstructed the timing and severity of past fires using fire-scarred trees and tree-ring data going back to the 1600s. Only 16 percent of the study area showed a shift from historically low-severity fires to severe, potential crown fires that can jump from treetop to treetop.

The idea that modern fires are larger and more severe as a result of fire suppression that allowed forest fuels to build up in the past century is still prevalent among some, said CU-Boulder geography Professor Thomas Veblen, a study co-author. “The key point here is that modern fires in these Front Range forests are not radically different from the fire severity of the region prior to any effects of fire suppression,” he said.

Read the rest here.

 

This Colorado study comes to the same conclusions as studies in California, for instance here and here.

90 Degree Days Decreasing In Pennsylvania

September 25, 2014
tags:

By Paul Homewood 

 

image

http://www.climateshift.com/downloads/northeast/confronting-climate-change-in-the-u-s-northeast.pdf

 

According to Katharine Hayhoe in 2007, 

More frequent days with temperatures above 90F are occurring across the Northeast, and, these observed changes are consistent with those expected to be caused by global warming.

 

She must have forgotten to check Pennsylvania.

 

image

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/broker?_PROGRAM=prog.climsite_daily.sas&_SERVICE=default&id=369050&_DEBUG=0

 

She also mentions that

Since 1970 the Northeast has been warming at a rate of nearly 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit per decade.

 

 Has nobody told her about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation?

 

multigraph

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

 

 

tsgcos.corr.86.182.234.125.267.4.28.33 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/tsanalysis .pl?tstype1=91&tstype2=0&year1=1895&year2=&itypea=0&axistype=0&anom=0&plotstyle=0&climo1=&climo2=&y1=&y2=&y21=&y22=&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=1&mon1=0&mon2=11&Submit=Calculate+Results

 

Can anyone tell Katharine what will happen to Northeast temperatures when the AMO starts to turn back downhill in the next few years?

Mail Uncovers DiCaprio’s Hypocrisy

September 25, 2014

By Paul Homewood  

 

image

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2766871/Leonardo-DiCaprio-s-climate-change-hypocrisy-As-Hollywood-star-lectures-U-N-MailOnline-reveals-jetset-lifestyle-includes-19-flights-world-year-borrowing-mega-yacht-owned-oil-billionaire.html?%3Fito%3D=social-twitter_dailymailus

 

The Mail goes to town on the UN’s new Messenger of Peace.

 

With his speech in front of the United Nations today, Leonardo DiCaprio cemented his reputation as one of the world’s highest-profile activists on climate change.

‘You can make history …or be vilified by it,’ he dramatically told world leaders.

After marching with 400,000 others on the streets of New York this weekend to demand tough regulations to cut the amount of CO2 being pumped into the air, DiCaprio opened a UN climate change summit by urging the world to crack down on polluters and ‘put a price tag on carbon emissions.’

But the 39-year-old Hollywood star’s own jetset lifestyle reveals a double-standard on the issue of climate change.

In his speech to the UN, he said: ‘This disaster has grown beyond the choices that individuals make.’

MailOnline can report that DiCaprio took at least 20 trips across the nation and around the world this year alone – including numerous flights from New York to Los Angeles and back, a ski vacation to the French Alps, another vacation to the French Riviera, flights to London and Tokoyo to promote his film Wolf of Wall Street, two trips to Miami and trip to Brazil to watch the World Cup.

 

Read the rest here.

10 Ways To Tell Tuesday’s UN Climate Summit Isn’t About Climate

September 24, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

This is worth reposting from Roy Spencer’s blog.

 

Wolf-of-the-UN

 

Next Tuesday’s UN climate conference in NYC (called Climate Summit 2014) is for politicians, celebrities, and rent seekers. It’s not about climate science, nor Saving the Earth from “carbon emissions” of fossil fuels.

Here are ten ways to tell the United Nations really isn’t interested in climate per se. Some of us suspected over 20 years ago this would happen, back when the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was being formed to help combat “global warming”.

 

1. There is no way with current technology to get beyond 15%-20% renewable energy in the next 20 years or so….and even that will be exceedingly expensive. No matter how much you care about where your energy originates, physics and economics trump emotions.

2. The UN doesn’t care that global warming stopped 17 years ago. It doesn’t matter. Full steam ahead.

3. The UN’s own climate models have grossly over-forecast warming. Doesn’t matter. Full steam ahead.

 

Read the rest here.

No Evidence That Tornadoes Are Peaking Earlier In Year

September 24, 2014

By Paul Homewood 

 

A recent paper, “Peak tornado activity is occurring earlier in the heart of “Tornado Alley” by Long and Stoy, claimed to find that, over the period 1954-2009, the tornado season had been gradually peaking earlier in the year in Tornado Alley, (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Oklahoma). Of course, this is a double edged sword, as it could also be stated that the peak tornado season is ending earlier in the year.

The authors speculate that this may be due to Spring arriving earlier.

There have been criticisms of their methodology, in particular attempting to compare tornado statistics from different decades, when it is well established that, because of different observation practices, there are many more tornadoes “recorded” now than in earlier decades. As this evolution of observational changes has been a gradual process over the period, caution needs to be taken when drawing conclusions.

In particular, using data from the 1950’s and 60’s is especially dangerous. McCarthy & Schaeffer, for instance, describe this period as the tornado growth period:

This period [their chosen period is 1970 to 2002] does not include the tornado growth period that occurred as official records began to be kept in Tornado Data (through 1957) and Storm Data (in subsequent years.) Also, the years 1950-1969 were a growth period because it was the start of the public awareness and communication revolution that gave tornadoes increased publicity due to television news coverage and graphic depictions of tornadoes and tornado damage.

 

 

To address some of these problems, we can do two things:

1) Begin the analysis from 1970.

2) Exclude the weaker F0 tornadoes. As NOAA explain,

With increased National Doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the United States, the total number of EF-1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF-3 to EF-5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These tornadoes would have likely been reported even during the decades before Doppler radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports.

 

Using tornado data from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, we can plot the proportion of annual tornadoes which occurred up to the end of April, to see if there is any pattern of tornadoes peaking earlier. The chart below covers the whole of the US, and not just Tornado Alley. (One particular criticism of the Long & Stoy paper was that there was great variability in their results from State to State, suggesting natural variability might be affecting the results).

The analysis is up to 2009, as in the Long & Stoy paper.

 

image

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

 

The results clearly show little evidence of any trend to tornadoes peaking earlier in the year, or for that matter later. The last two decades are virtually identical, and while they show an increase on the 1980’s, they are down on the 1970’s.

There will, no doubt, be variation from year to year, and from State to State, but in overall terms, whether Spring is arriving earlier nor not, there seems to be little change in the tornado season. 

More Hayhoe Tripe

September 24, 2014

By Paul Homewood 

 

image

http://www.climateshift.com/downloads/northeast/confronting-climate-change-in-the-u-s-northeast.pdf

 

 

Let’s return to Katharine Hayhoe’s predictions for climate change in the Northeast, and consider this gem.

 

image

 

Uniontown is one of the longer running USHCN stations in Pennsylvania, and, lying in the southern part of the state, should be seeing an increase in 100F+ days. The USHCN database has daily data dating back to 1895, and the following chart plots all days of 100F and over.

 

image

 

Apart from one day in July 2012, there has been a notable absence of 100F+ days in recent decades. This contrasts starkly with the 1930’s, when there were seven such days, including four that set the all-time record of 102F.

 

Meanwhile, the daily record temperatures (i.e. record temperatures for each day of the year), show a similar pattern, both for summer and all year round.

The records include ties, so there is no statistical reason why earlier decades should show more records. Yet both the 1930’s, and also the two prior decades have most summer temperature records, and along with the 1940’s, most all-year round records as well.

As for the last decade, only the 1970’s recorded fewer daily summertime records.

 

 

broker

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/broker?id=369050&_PROGRAM=prog.decadal_d9k_424.sas&_SERVICE=default&_DEBUG=0&tempvar=htx&seasvar=sum

 

 

If it is true that record high temperatures are an indication of global warming, then it follows that the 1930’s would have been a warmer decade globally than the last couple. It is no wonder that, as far as Hayhoe is concerned, history began in 1970.

Emma Knows Best

September 24, 2014

By Paul Homewood 

 

image

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/19/campaigners-london-march-climate-change

 

Climate Scientist Actress Emma Thompson tells us “We can’t go on pretending nothing’s happening”.

 

trend

DiCaprio Takes Time Out From His Super-Yacht To Fight Climate Change

September 24, 2014

By Paul Homewood  

 

image

http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/klima/leonardo-di-caprio-fuehrt-klimaschutz-demo-an-37761172.bild.html

 

 

Pierre Gosselin carries the report of the Bild, Germany’s leading newspaper, of Leonardo DiCaprio’s appearance at New York’s Climate March For World Socialism.

 

Online German daily Bild, the world’s sixth largest daily in print by circulation, reported on the climate demonstration in New York and on the stars who appeared, foremost Leonardo DiCaprio.

At first Bild describes the event as the “largest climate demonstration of all time” and how the event drew more than 300,000 in New York, making it sound impressive.

But then Bild pours cold water on the noble planet rescue attempt and made it look like one hijacked by big Hollywood publicity seekers, and making star Di Caprio look like a hypocrite for demanding climate action while living a lavish life of luxury, mega-yachts, private jets and limousines.

Bild writes:

DiCaprio’s dedication however drew derisive comments. US news site “The Daily Caller“ accused the actor of hypocrisy.

At Twitter critics ridiculed how the star flew over to New York for the demonstration with his private jet. Others pointed out with outrage that the actor was a guest on the giant yacht of an Arabian multi-billionaire earlier this summer.”

Reactions/comments by Bild readers are practically unanimous, with the underlying message: Climate science is a farce and DiCaprio is behaving like a hypocrite. What follows are just a random few I’ve translated:

Reader Liliia Lilianenko comments:

Leonardo di Caprio should refrain from his luxury yacht if he doesn’t want climate change.”

Flecha Rota wrote:

In the meantime lots of scientists are recognizing that solar activity influences the climate one hundred times more than man ever will! But it just doesn’t register in the heads of climate fanatics. As is the case with all fanatics, facts that counter their nonsense are simply blocked out.”

Carlos Hathcock writes:

The great climate lies – and (almost) everyone is fooled by it!”

Stephen Putt:

Climate swindler Al Gore: In 2013 Arctic will be ice-free, but the ice sheet of the Arctic compared to a year earlier has grown by more than 50%.”

Robert Robson:

Photos of Leo spending his holidays on some luxury yacht is what first impressed me along with the headline…Likely he also rides in an SUV to the organic food store three blocks away :)”

 

 

The super-yacht in question was this giant thing, apparently the fifth largest in the world, which Leonardo hired so he and his cronies could stay on it during the Brazilian World Cup a couple of months ago.

 

world-cup-leo-topaz yacht

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/leonardo-dicaprio-rents-abu-dhabi-sheikh-s-yacht-for-brazil-world-cup-554181.html#.VCHzmxb_HZg

 

Arabian Business.Com describe the ship and DiCaprio’s arrangement to hire it:

 

American actor Leonardo DiCaprio has hired the mega yacht owned by the Abu Dhabi billionaire sheikh who owns English football club Manchester City for use during his stay in Brazil for the World Cup, according to the Daily Star newspaper.

The ‘Wolf of Wall Street’ star has reportedly rented the Topaz yacht to enjoy the football tournament in the Southern American country with 21 of his millionaire friends, the report said.

The 147 metre vessel was custom-built for Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed bin Sultan bin Zayed bin Khalifa Al Nahyan, the deputy prime minister of the United Arab Emirates, minister of presidential affairs and member of the ruling family of Abu Dhabi.

Topaz was launched in May 2012 and is the world’s fifth largest private yacht. It has three swimming pools, a gym, Jacuzzi, fitness hall, cinema and helipad.

 

 

All of this has, without doubt, helped to fight global warming!!

Computer Models Overestimating Antarctic Sea Temperatures

September 23, 2014
tags:

By Paul Homewood  

 

image

http://news.agu.org/press-release/elephant-seals-help-uncover-slower-than-expected-antarctic-melting/

 

In short, a new study, which has managed to measure real sea temperatures below Antarctic ice shelves, has discovered that temperatures are much lower than had been estimated by “computer models”.

As the AGU report:

 

It turns out that past studies, which were based on computer models without any direct data for comparison or guidance, overestimate the water temperatures and extent of melting beneath the Fimbul Ice Shelf. This has led to the misconception, Hattermann said, that the ice shelf is losing mass at a faster rate than it is gaining mass, leading to an overall loss of mass. The model results were in contrast to the available data from satellite observations, which are supported by the new measurements.

The team’s results show that water temperatures are far lower than computer models predicted, which means that the Fimbul Ice Shelf is melting at a slower rate. Perhaps indicating that the shelf is neither losing nor gaining mass at the moment because ice buildup from snowfall has kept up with the rate of mass loss, Hattermann said.

 

Future generations of scientists will look back and wonder why the current generation placed so much reliance on computer models, whilst ignoring what the real world data was telling them.