By Paul Homewood
|Change from last month||0.10||0.03||0.02||0.10|
|12 month running average||0.20||0.22||0.49||0.61|
- UAH & HADCRUT slightly up, GISS & RSS with a slightly larger rise.
- 12 Month average virtually unchanged, and still remains close to the 10-Year average.
Please note the 2004-13 average has been revised, as my original figures were wrong.
For anyone not familiar with all this, UAH and RSS are the two satellite datasets, that measure temperatures in the lower troposphere, from the surface up to about 8000 metres. The HADCRUT and GISS datasets measure surface temperatures.
All temperatures are presented as anomalies, i.e the difference, measured against a baseline, that is different across all four sets. (This means that the anomalies are not directly comparable between sets)
The baselines used are:
RSS – 1979-98
UAH – 1981-2010
HADCRUT – 1961-90
GISS – 1951-80
HADCRUT is maintained the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre in conjunction with the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.
GISS is run by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at NASA.
UAH is the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and their dataset is part of an ongoing joint operation with NOAA and NASA.
RSS is a scientific research company, Remote Sensing Systems.
By Paul Homewood
h/t Joe Public
According to the 2009 report:
“Met Office climate predictions suggest that by 2080 the average winter night-time temperature in the Highlands will be 2C – four degrees higher than the current average of -2C.”
Meanwhile, back in the real world.
By Paul Homewood
Julia Slingo seems determined to push the “more intense rainfall” claim. I have already shown that there is no evidence of this at a national level during this winter.
But let’s take a closer look at a local level, as national figures don’t always tell the whole story. Oxford has been at the heart of the flooding problems this winter, and it also has a weather station with long running records.
By far the wettest month there this winter was January, which recorded 146.9mm of rainfall, compared to an average of 56.6mm.(December 2013 was much lower, with 97.7mm.) However, monthly totals of this sort of level are not that uncommon, coming along about once every decade on average. We can compare the daily rainfall pattern with some of these earlier years, to see if there is evidence that daily intensity is increasing.
The Met Office have supplied me with daily data at Oxford since 1930, as records prior to that are, apparently, not digitalised. From these, I have selected four months to compare with last month, ignoring recent years for obvious reasons.
The results are shown below, and are quite startling, and show that, far from daily intensity increasing, the reverse has been the case.
|Dec 1934||Nov 1940||Oct 1949||Nov 1970||Jan 2014|
|Total Rainfall mm||142.2||175.5||161.8||150.3||146.9|
|Highest Daily Rainfall||17.0||30.7||36.1||20.6||14.5|
|No of Days >14.5mm||2||5||4||4||0|
- Average rainfall per rainday in Jan 2014 was the lowest of the five, and less than half that recorded in 1940.
- The highest rainfall recorded this year was 14.5mm, yet in 1949 there daily totals of 36.1,126.96.36.199 and 20.6mm.
- In all of the previous four years, there many days with much higher totals than the highest recorded this year.
There was one very good reason why last month was so wet – it rained for every single day of the month except one. This is the total opposite of claims that “daily rainfall intensity” is increasing.
The graph below illustrates well the distribution of daily rainfall for last month and November 1940. In January 2014, the rainfall is actually pretty steady and relentless, whereas in 1940 the rain came in big bursts.
OK, Oxford is just one location, but it would be hard to find anywhere else in England with such anomalously high rainfall in January.
Julia Slingo has all of this information at her fingertips, so why is she telling the opposite story to the press?
By Paul Homewood
When somebody says to you that “97% of scientists agree”, does this not make you just a little bit slightly suspicious?
By Paul Homewood
I have already covered this ridiculous nonsense here. At this time of year, maximum temperatures at Sochi are well over 50F, hardly the proper place to run a winter Olympics.
But what really interests me is the tack that CBS take in their report “Could climate change mean the end of skiing?”.
Jiminy Peak Mountain Resort in Massachusetts offsets the lack of natural snow by making almost 90 percent of it themselves. The cost of snowmaking prompted the resort to build a $4 million wind turbine.
“It was something that no one had ever done before,” said Tyler Fairbank, the resort’s chief executive officer. “And it has been an absolute home run for us.”
Lower electric bills allow Fairbank to be more optimistic about the resort’s future.
“We’re in a constant state of climate change,” he said. “I don’t know if we’re seeing- I know what we’re certainly not seeing – the kinds of patterns and data that suggests that, you know, the sky is falling.”
When asked about his comments, Fox still disagrees.
“I wish he was right. I really do,” said Fox. “I would tend to believe the thousands of scientists that disagree with that opinion.”
Dahler asked Fox why there is so much resistance.
“I think there’s a long history of doubting science when it goes against the grain of what you want to happen,” said Fox.
He told Dahler that if people start reducing carbon emissions now, the loss of snow can be slowed down. But he’s not optimistic.
“Glaciers in Europe, Alpine glaciers, they’ve lost half of their volume, and that’s in the last 150 years. It’s disappearing very quickly,” he said. “There’s a chain reaction that happens when snow disappears that’s really devastating to everyone living downstream.”
Has it never occurred to this idiot that alpine glaciers expanded rapidly, and to hugely disastrous effect, during the Little Ice Age, which ended in the late 19thC. (Just think about that term for a minute, moron).
Respected historian, Brian Fagan, in his book “The Little Ice Age”, describes the advance of the glaciers at the time:-
In the 16th Century the occasional traveller would remark on the poverty and suffering of those who lived on the marginal lands in the glacier’s shadow. At that time Chamonix was an obscure poverty stricken parish in “a poor country of barren mountains never free of glaciers and frosts…half the year there is no sun…the corn is gathered in the snow…and is so mouldy it has to be heated in the oven”. Even animals were said to refuse bread made from Chamonix wheat. Avalanches caused by low temperatures and deep snowfall were a constant hazard. In 1575 a visitor described the village as “a place covered with glaciers…often the fields are entirely swept away and the wheat blown into the woods and onto the glaciers”.
In 1589 the Allalin glacier in Switzerland descended so low that it blocked the Saas valley, forming a lake. The moraine broke a few months later, sending floods downstream. Seven years later 70 people died when similar floods from the Gietroz glacier submerged the town of Martigny.
As the glaciers relentlessly pushed downslope thousands of acres of farm land were ruined and many villages were left uninhabitable such as La Bois where a government official noted “where there are still six houses. all uninhabited save two, in which live some wretched women and children…Above and adjoining the village there is a great and horrible glacier of great and incalculable volume which can promise nothing but the destruction of the houses and lands which still remain”. Eventually the village was completely abandoned.
The same official visited the hamlet of La Rosiere in 1616 and found” “The great glacier of La Rosiere every now and then goes bounding and thrashing or descending…There have been destroyed 43 journaux of land with nothing but stones and 8 houses, 7 barns and 5 little granges have been entirely ruined and destroyed”.
Alpine glaciers, which had already advanced steadily between 1546 and 1590, moved aggressively forward again between 1600 and 1616. Villages that had flourished since medieval times were in danger or already destroyed. During the long period of glacial retreat and relative quiet in earlier times, opportunistic farmers had cleared land within a kilometer of what seemed to them to be stationary ice sheets. Now their descendants paid the price with their villages and livelihoods threatened.
Between 1627 and 1633 Chamonix lost a third if its land through avalanches, snow, glaciers and flooding, and the remaining hectares were under constant threat. In 1642 the Des Bois glacier advanced “over a musket shot every day, even in August”.
By this time people near the ice front were planting only oats and a little barley in fields that were under snow for most of the year. Their forefathers had paid their tithes in wheat. Now they obtained but one harvest in three and even the grain rotted after harvesting. “The people here are so badly fed they are dark and wretched and seem only half alive”.
In 1715 the village of Le Pre-du-Bar vanished under a glacier caused landslide. The glacial high tide in the Alps came around 1750 and gradually the glaciers began their retreat, much to the relief of the people who lived there.
“There’s a chain reaction that happens when snow disappears that’s really devastating to everyone living downstream.?”
Can he really be so thick? Perhaps Mr Fox would prefer to go back to living under an advancing glacier 300 year ago?
And, while making his mind up, he might like to consider what caused the climate to cool so abruptly after the golden age of the Middle Ages.
I wonder what the serfs of the 13thC would have thought about the idea of a carbon tax?
By Paul Homewood
A phrase we keep hearing over and over again, is that we are “loading the dice”. The idiot Miliband is the latest to jump on the bandwagon
"If you keep throwing the dice and you keep getting sixes then the dice are loaded. Something is going on.”
(BTW – he has referred to 2012 as the “second wettest winter on record”. In the UK, the winter of 2012/13 was actually the 28th wettest since 1910. (2011/12 was even drier). To think we’re likely to have this cretin running the country next year!)
It is easy, of course, to pick one month or one year and say how wet it has been. Just as it is easy for me to find other wetter episodes. But if there is any truth in “loading the dice”, we should see two things:-
1) An increasing trend in the number of wet winters.
2) Extremely wet months becoming more common and more intense.
By Paul Homewood
Readers will no doubt remember that, just a couple of weeks ago, a certain Julia Slingo was explaining with regard to recent wet weather that
“All the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change”.
Her logic was that the position of the jet stream, that had brought all the bad weather, was linked to the Arctic plunge in the USA, which in turn was linked to some rain in Indonesia.
Well, it appears that her little theory has not lasted long. The BBC tell us that, this week, the jet stream will start to reorientate itself, thus removing the high pressure block, that has brought the Arctic air so far south.
One positive benefit from this is that it will hopefully bring plenty of rain to California.
As far as the UK is concerned, it looks likely that the jet stream will slow down and resume more of a usual position further north by next week.
So it turns out it was just weather after all.
FORECAST CHANGES TO JET STREAM
By Paul Homewood
A glimpse of the future if Kevin Anderson and his buddies at the (taxpayer funded) Tyndall Centre get their way!
Meanwhile, guess what allowance the jokers at (taxpayer funded) GISS have made for UHI at Seoul since 1940? Yes, that place with the bright light, and city to 6 million people.
NIL, ZILCH, NADA, ZIPPO,BUGGER ALL!
BEFORE UHI ADJUSTMENT
AFTER UHI ADJUSTMENT
Sometimes, I think I’ll wake up and find it has all been a bad dream.
By Paul Homewood
From the BBC:
As many as 1,500 of Indonesia’s islands could be under water by 2050 because of rising sea levels, it’s been reported.
In the capital city, Jakarta, the main international Soekarno-Hatta Airport could be below sea level as soon as 2030, with outlying districts turned into lakes, says Singapore’s Straits Times, quoting a report from Maplecroft’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index.
"This archipelago’s biggest threat is rising sea levels, where 42 million people living 3km from the coast are vulnerable," Ancha Srinivasan of the Asian Development Bank says.
Twenty-four islands have already disappeared off the coast of Aceh, North Sumatra, Papua and Riau, according to official research, and experts are worried this trend could accelerate. Indonesia comprises around 17,500 islands, of which approximately 6,000 are permanently inhabited.
Would it surprise you to find that the BBC have not been telling you the whole story? No, thought not.
The major factor in “sea level rise” in Indonesia has nothing to do with global warming, melting glaciers or wicked Republicans. It is that the land is sinking, as this study by Yanagi & Akaki in 1994 showed.
And they include these maps, showing the rate of sinking, and where the plates meet. Around Jakarta, the land is reckoned to be sinking at 8.7mm a year, about 34 inches a century. In other parts it is worse still.
But the BBC’s omissions don’t stop there. According to the Jakarta Globe:
So, when you add the effects of sinking and subsidence together, an odd millimetre or so a year is neither here nor there.
And, for the record, what is sea level doing, in other parts of the Pacific, away from the dramatic changes around Indonesia? Freemantle, in Western Australia, has a long running tidal gauge, and according to Church & White, the land there is rising by a relatively small 0.25mm pa.
Sea levels have been slowly and steadily rising by 1.54mm a year since before 1900. Furthermore, the rate of increase has actually been DECLINING in recent decades.
But don’t expect the BBC to tell you any of this. It suits their agenda to let you think it is all due to global warming.