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What Gummer Didn’t Tell You About Mexico’s Climate Pledge

October 19, 2014
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood 

 

h/t Guenier

 

Yesterday I looked at CO2 emission trends for some of the major emitters around the world, other than the EU, US, China & India. One country I picked out was Mexico, where emissions had increased by 5% in the last three years.

Mexico happens to be one of the countries highlighted by John Gummer’s Committee on Climate Change as having passed a Climate Act.

 

image

http://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Owen-Patersons-speech-to-the-GWPF-the-CCCs-response1.pdf

 

GLOBE, the Global Legislators Organisation, the group originally set up British MP’s to encourage legislators worldwide to tackle climate change, have a database which gives more detail on individual countries’ legislative actions to date. Their entry for Mexico is intriguing.

 

image

http://www.globeinternational.org/pdfviewer

 

Note the “2020 Pledge” box.

 

30% GHG emissions reduction with respect to business as usual scenario by 2020 (given adequate financial and technical support from developed countries).

 

No figure is provided for how much money they want, no doubt this will be left open for negotiation. But it is apparent that we can expect little action from Mexico until the West coughs up large amounts of money.

 

Read more…

Antarctic Temperature Trends

October 19, 2014
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

It has been claimed that atmospheric temperatures over the Antarctic have been increasing in recent years.

Satellite measurements from both UAH and RSS, which date back to 1979, tell a different tale.

 

image

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt

 

image

http://data.remss.com/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt

 

Both datasets show a small declining trend. Any increase in recent years is merely a recovery from the sharp drop in temperatures between 1998 and 2000.

Notably, the peaks seen in the last decade are lower than others recorded earlier in the record.

 

Read more…

Rest of World Ignoring The UK’s “World Leading” Climate Change Act

October 18, 2014
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood

 

When global CO2 emissions are discussed, attention is naturally focussed on the large emitters of China and India. In doing so, however, we risk losing track of what many medium sized countries are doing.

 

In their response to Owen Paterson, the Committee on Climate Change had this to say:

 

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http://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Owen-Patersons-speech-to-the-GWPF-the-CCCs-response1.pdf

 

 

Talk is cheap of course, but actions speak louder. So, what have some of the largest emitters, outside of the EU, USA, China and India, been doing in terms of cutting back CO2 emissions?

Not a lot according to figures from CDIAC.

 

Read more…

John Cook Says Record Antarctic Ice Is Due To Warmer Southern Ocean

October 18, 2014
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood  

 

According to John Cook, Antarctic sea ice has been expanding because the Southern Ocean is getting warmer. He also claims that anyone thinking more ice is due to colder conditions is “ignorant”.

 

He forgets that some of us know how to check the data.

Bob Tisdale produces analyses of sea surface temperatures each month, and these have shown that the Southern Ocean has been getting considerable colder since 1981, and particularly in the last 8 years.

 

14-southern

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/10/12/september-2014-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/

 

 

All of Bob’s data is sourced from the KNMI website here.

Do Guardian Readers Really Believe This Crap?

October 17, 2014
tags:

By Paul Homewood  

 

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http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/16/rising-sea-levels-isnt-a-scientific-threat-its-happening-outside-my-window

 

It just had to be the Guardian, didn’t it?

 

They say all politics is local so this week when scientist John Church published a report in the world’s most prestigious science journal, Nature, about sea level rise, it made me look out my kitchen window.

I live in a town where sea level rise is not just academic. My life is spent surrounded by salt water. My home is a very modest south coast fibro cottage on a promontory at Moruya Heads, four hours drive south of Sydney.

Writing about his new paper, Time of Emergence for Regional Sea-Level Change, Church said:

Our new analysis of sea-level projections … indicates that regional sea-level rise will be generally noticeable before 2030. By then the average sea-level rise globally will be about 13 centimetres higher than the average sea level calculated between 1986 and 2005.

As soon as I had read Church’s report I went and scrabbled through my files for a letter that had arrived in my letterbox a couple of months ago from the Eurobodalla Shire Council.

Across the road from me is the main channel of the Moruya River and my back boundary is a tributary of the estuary, known as Gilmours Creek. At the end of my road are two spectacular beaches that are part of the Batemans Marine Park. I don’t need to consult charts to see whether it is high tide or low – I just look across the water.

It’s the kind of sleepy little place where the postman is the same guy nearly every day, and he waves when he delivers the mail. In August he dropped off an envelope from the council.

I am writing to advise you of a draft report relating to sea level rise that is currently on public exhibition … As the owner of a property that is currently identified as ‘potentially at risk from future sea level rise’ we invite you to comment and give feedback during the exhibition period.

If the report is adopted, it will provide the basis for consideration of sea level rise in future plans and policies including the preparation of the Coastal Zone Management Plan for Eurobodalla which will include public consultation.

Like most people, I have been concerned about climate change as an esoteric issue. I have worried about how it will impact on my children and grandchildren. But here was climate change in my actual letter box – formal correspondence about how climate change was going to impact on me.

 

 

 

I am afraid, Mr Woodford, you have been conned.

 

Read more…

Renewable Energy Campaigners Deflated!

October 17, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t ES 

 

This is great. Protesters pushing for more renewable energy inflated a blow-up coal power plant using renewable energy, but it deflated after 45 minutes because they didn’t have enough solar and wind energy to keep it inflated. They later admitted they normally would have used a gas-powered generator instead of a solar powered generator.

Watch:

 

 

http://therightscoop.com/fitting-renewable-energy-protesters-in-wisconsin-failed-by-renewable-energy/

Gummer Denies The Pause

October 17, 2014

By Paul Homewood 

 

As part of their response to Owen Paterson’s calls to scrap the Climate Change Act, John Gummer’s Committee on Climate Change (CCC) came up with this:

 

image

http://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Owen-Patersons-speech-to-the-GWPF-the-CCCs-response1.pdf 

 

 

This is a grossly deceptive reply.

Let’s leave aside the fact that RSS satellite measurements show no warming at all since 1997.

 

from 1997

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1997/trend/plot/rss/from:1997

 

It is highly misleading to claim that using 1998 as a starting point has artificially depressed the warming trend. As Dr David Whitehouse has pointed out, the double La Nina in 1999 and 2000 more than offset the 1998 El Nino, as the HADCRUT graph below shows.

 

from 1997

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1997/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1997

 

Certainly, HADCRUT shows a small warming trend since 1997, but it is so small as to be statistically insignificant, a fact that Gummer forgot to mention.

But this is not the real reason why I find the CCC statement so deceptive. However we regard the use of 1997 as a starting point, and the significance or otherwise of the trend since then, there has been effectively no warming at all since 2001.

 

from 2001

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2001/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2001

 

This is not a case of cherry picking start points. The year of 2001 is simply the furthest point that we can go back to find this position. In any event, 2001/2 marked a year long ENSO neutral period, which demolishes Gummer’s argument about using the 1998 El Nino as a start point. 

Gummer claims:

 

The warming has not stopped.

 

As he should know, this is untrue. The warming actually stopped 13 years ago. And don’t just take my word for it. In July 2013, the UK Met Office published a paper “The recent pause in global warming : What are the potential causes? “, which looked at the lack of warming over the previous 10-15 years.

 

Read more…

Gummer’s Renewable Dream Land

October 17, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

 

Bishop Hill reports on the Committee on Climate Change’s response to Owen Paterson’s speech, calling for the scrapping of the Climate Change Act. In particular, he notes their response to worries that “the lights will go out”.

 

image

 

I know I am going over old ground, but someone really has to expose this dangerous nonsense.

 

Current Situation

The current capacity situation is tight, but still manageable. Timera Energy report that system margins could fall below 5% next year as capacity is shut down. Nevertheless, wind and solar power, which supplied 8% of total energy last year, is still insignificant enough for conventional power stations to step up and supply the shortfall when the wind does not blow.

 

Even so, renewable subsidies have already soared to £2.6bn in 2012/13, about £100/household, and DECC now need to sign up 53GW of standby capacity for 2018/19 at great cost. Most of this, of course, will be fossil fuel based power anyway. DECC have already estimated the cost of various subsidies and levies in support of low carbon generation will be £7.6 billion by 2020, and this will increase sharply in following years, as more renewable capacity is added and Hinckley C comes on stream.

(As an aside, the CCC claim that energy bills to households will only increase by £10 a year up to the mid 2020’s – can any of their figures be trusted?)

However, the real problem will arise in the 2020’s.

 

Read more…

Yeah But, No But, Yeah But!!

October 16, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

th

 

The Vikki Pollards at the Met Office seem to have got their knickers in a twist over their latest 3-month outlook.

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/6/e/A3_plots-precip-OND.pdf

 

Worried that the media have interpreted this as forecasting another wet and stormy winter, they have had to issue this response on their blog:

 

Read more…

The Cherry-Picking Climate Change Committee

October 16, 2014

By Paul Homewood

Dr David Whitehouse has responded to the Committee on Climate Change’s response to Owen Paterson’s GWPF lecture last night.

In its response to the 2014 Annual GWPF Lecture given last night by Owen Paterson, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has issued a statement to what Mr Paterson said. It was immediately taken up by the twittersphere, with some calling it “robust and thorough.” Unfortunately when it comes to Paterson’s claim that the earth’s surface temperature hasn’t risen in 18 years the CCC shows itself to be out of step with what has now become mainstream scientific opinion.

In any physical measurement of continuous variables in the real world, especially the various temperature measurements used as climate change metrics, it is meaningless to quote a measurement without its associated error. Thus the CCC in quoting a 1998-2013 annual average global surface temperature ‘trend’ of 0.04 deg C per decade (based on HadCrut4 data). According to the CCC this is proof that Paterson is wrong. In reality, the CCC is being misleading.

In any time series it is unlikely that over a selected period the gradient would be zero – even if the statistical properties of that time series are stationary. In other words, just finding a gradient doesn’t mean there is a real trend. The reason is simple: If the gradient falls within the errors of measurement then the standard scientific practice is to conclude that there is no statistical evidence for a trend. The 0.04 deg C per decade figure quoted by the CCC should have an error of +/- 0.15 deg C, a figure that is four times larger than that quoted by the CCC. The reason why the CCC finds a (statistically insignificant) positive gradient at all has nothing to do with global warming but the presence of two La Nina years – 1999 and 2000.

 

 

Hadcrut4new

Here is HadCrut4 from 1998 to the present day. The data ranges from a temperature anomaly of 0.14 to 0.85 deg C with no statistically significant gradient. There is no trend. Click on image to enlarge.

The CCC should have also followed standard scientific practices. Firstly, starting any trend analysis with 1998, which was a strong El Nino year, is clearly nonsense. Trend analysis should also vary the start and end points to look at how inter-year variability might affect the outcome. Carry out the same analysis for 2001-2014 gives a cooling of 0.02 deg C per decade (+/- 0.17 deg C). Starting with 2003 gives a cooling of 0.047 +/- 0.22. Starting in later years yields with one exception a cooling “trend.” Note all errors are 2 standard deviations.

So the CCC has been unscientific, cherry-picking and misleading. If a thorough analysis of HadCrut4 is performed over the past 17 years there is no statistically significant trend, either positive from 1998 or negative from 2001 onwards. The claim that global temperature is rising in this data set is absolutely rejected. This is not a slower rate of temperature rise, the data show no temperature rise in this period – period.

Of course the world has warmed during the period in which global estimates could be made, post 1880. One can go back before the last 17 years and show there has been a rise and dilute the impact of the recent standstill. But there is no getting away from the fact that after 40 years of no change in global surface temperature (1940-1980), it started to rise again for 17 years (1980-1997) but has been constant since then. The rise and the subsequent standstill are now of equal length. It is curious then that the CCC say that the “temporary slowdown” has not been long enough to alter projections of future change when those very projections were based on a period of equal duration.

Only campaigners, committees and some commentators use misleading phrases like ‘slowdown’ or ‘warming trend.’ In the peer-reviewed scientific literature, most scientists call it a temperature “hiatus” or “pause.” In fact, the global warming pause has become, as the journal Nature acknowledges, the biggest problem in climate science. It is a real problem that the CCC think it doesn’t actually exist

http://www.thegwpf.com/cherry-picking-climate-committee/