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China’s New Energy Plan Forecasts Big Rise In CO2 Emissions

November 21, 2014

By Paul Homewood  


News from Enerdata that China has published a new Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020), presumably following on from the US-China agreement last week.


The State Council of China has unveiled a new Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020) focusing on the development of renewables and capping primary energy consumption at 4.8 Gtce/year until 2020, i.e. limiting the primary energy consumption growth rate to 3.5%/year until 2020. China aims to limit coal consumption to 4.2 Gt/year until 2020, a 16% increase over the 2013 consumption level of 3.6 Gt. China will also target a reduction of coal in the primary energy mix to under 62% by 2020, to the advantage of non-fossil fuels (15% by 2020 and 20% by 2030, from about 10% in 2013) and gas (10% by 2020). By 2020, the installed nuclear power capacity is expected to reach 58 GW, with an additional 30 GW under construction; inland nuclear power projects will be studied, while the construction of nuclear reactors on coastal areas will begin "at a proper time". China targets an installed hydropower capacity of 350 GW by 2020, with wind and solar capacities reaching 200 GW and 100 GW respectively. Shale gas and coalbed methane production should reach 30 bcm by 2020 and the energy self-sufficiency rate will be boosted to about 85%.


A number of things stand out here:


1) Capping primary energy consumption at 4.8 Gtce/year until 2020

This refers to “Gigatonnes Carbon Equivalent”. Provisional figures for 2013, from CDIAC, give carbon emissions as 2.7Gtce, so China are allowing themselves a substantial amount of headroom to continue growing emissions. (See Update)

There should be no surprise here. As I pointed out a year ago, China’s promise to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP were actually likely to lead to a doubling of emissions, dependent on economic growth.

As their commitment is to peak emissions by 2030, we can expect the figure of 4.8Gtce to continue to rise through the 2020’s.


Read more…

China Invest $73Bn In Global Oil Production

November 21, 2014

By Paul Homewood  




Obama seems to think that the Chinese govt is serious about reducing CO2 emissions.

Meanwhile, Chinese oil companies, still primarily owned by the state, have been busy investing in oil production around the world.

According to the latest report from the IEA, China has spent $73 billion in the last three years and now control 7% of world output.

I somehow don’t think they will chuck that investment down the drain.

House of Commons Cancels Sceptics’ Climate Meeting

November 20, 2014

By Paul Homewood  


I mentioned a while back a meeting on climate and energy issues which was scheduled to take place in the House of Commons on 5th Nov. UKIP MEP, Roger Helmer, was one of the speakers invited.

I was therefore astonished to see Roger’s post today on the event.


Dear Rt Hon John Bercow MP,

Climate Meeting: House of Commons: Nov 5th

On Wednesday November 5th I travelled from Brussels to London, where I had been invited to speak at a meeting on climate and energy issues which was scheduled to take place in the House of Commons in Meeting Room Nine.  The Room had been booked by Mr. Sammy Wilson MP.  Press releases had been issued, as well as 45 formal invitations, though attendance was expected to be close to double that figure.

On arrival, I was advised that the relevant parliamentary office had peremptorily cancelled the booking the previous day, despite the prior arrangements and advance publicity.  The organisers managed to find a new venue at the John Harvard Library in Southwark, but naturally it was difficult to ensure that all attendees were advised.

To add injury to insult, visitors arriving at the House of Commons and enquiring for the meeting were variously told that “it had been cancelled”, or that staff knew nothing about it.  As a result, the meeting in Southwark was poorly attended.

Attendees included distinguished figures from the climate debate, including Piers Corbyn of Weather Action (the brother of your member Jeremy Corbyn MP), Professor Peter Gill of the Institute of Physics, and blogger Derek Tipp – as well, of course, as myself, the Energy Spokesman for a major political party.

It seems to me that this action by your administration was reprehensible, and reflects very poorly on your House.  I have never before had occasion to compare the House of Commons unfavourably with the European parliament, but I cannot believe that such a peremptory cancellation would have taken place in Brussels.

This was a deliberate attempt to frustrate public debate on a major political issue, and it was a calculated snub to the Party which won the European elections in May this year, and which is now represented in your House.

I should be grateful for your explanation of these circumstances, and I believe that a formal public apology would be in order.

Yours faithfully.

Roger Helmer



Now maybe, just maybe, there was a justifiable reason for this cancellation. On the face of it, though, the whole affair stinks.

Harrabin’s Black Water Vapour

November 20, 2014

By Paul Homewood      


h/t Mick J


roger harrabin


Now I wonder why Roger Harrabin would have this picture on his Twitter home page?


Answers on a postcard to the Global Warming Propaganda Dept at the BBC.

Another Dopey Journalist Can’t Tell Smoke From Steam

November 20, 2014

By Paul Homewood  


h/t Joe Public


It’s not just the BBC!!






It appears that Associated Press journalists don’t know the difference between smoke and steam either.


To make matters worse, they seem to suggest that China should away from steel production and manufacturing. Back to the Dark Ages then!

Germany’s Energy Dilemma

November 19, 2014

By Paul Homewood


Following news of the political battle going on in Germany over climate targets, it is perhaps time to see what progress they have actually been making in taking fossil fuels out of the mix.


The Energy Information Administration (EIA), part of the US Dept of Energy, has data up to 2012 on electricity generation, which I have used for the analysis below.


  2009 2010 2011 2012
Nuclear 128 133 102 94
Fossil Fuels 326 346 340 344
Hydro 17 19 16 20
Solar 7 12 19 28
Wind 39 38 46 46
Biomass 36 40 44 44
TOTAL 552 587 567 576

Electricity Generation TWh,&syid=2007&eyid=2012&unit=BKWH


Since 2009, the contribution from fossil fuels has gone up. As far as renewables are concerned, wind has barely increased at all, with solar catching up. However, neither wind or solar has made much of a dent in the overall figures.




As far as 2013 is concerned, we can glean a few things from provisional analysis.

1) According to EIS, nuclear has remained steady with 92 TWh.

2) Wind is virtually unchanged with 47 TWh. According to Platts McGraw Hill Financial:

Up until November, 2013, wind power output trailed 2012 levels, but a stormy December with more than 7 TWh of wind power output meant new records for both wind and solar power production in Germany, the data shows.

3) Solar increased by 2TWh, to 30 TWh, again according to Platts.


Basically, the mix last year won’t look much different to 2012. But what about going forward?


Read more…

Strongest Typhoon Claims Refuted By Philippines Weather Agency After Typhoon Yolanda

November 18, 2014

By Paul Homewood 


Thanks to M Kelly for reminding me what the Philippines National Weather Agency  had to say in the aftermath of Typhoon Yolanda. From the New York Times:


Before the typhoon made landfall, some international forecasters were estimating wind speeds at 195 m.p.h., which would have meant the storm would hit with winds among the strongest recorded. But local forecasters later disputed those estimates. “Some of the reports of wind speeds were exaggerated,” Mr. Paciente said [a forecaster with the Philippine government’s national weather agency].

The Philippine weather agency measured winds on the eastern edge of the country at about 150 m.p.h., he said, with some tracking stations recording speeds as low as 100 m.p.h.

Typhoon Yolanda One Year On

November 18, 2014

By Paul Homewood




Philip Eden has a largely sensible piece on Typhoon Haiyan, or Yolanda as the Philippines named it, just over a year after it hit.


Read more…

Germany To Drop 2020 Climate Targets

November 17, 2014

By Paul Homewood




Since the Federal elections in Germany, earlier this year, there has been a running battle between Sigmar Gabriel, minister for economic affairs and energy, and Barbara Hendricks, the environmental minister.

Gabriel has been keen to drop CO2 targets, because of the damage they have been doing to the economy, while his colleague takes the opposite view. According to Der Spiegel, it is Gabriel who has won the battle.


Breitbart report:


Read more…

Who Is Guy Smith?

November 17, 2014

By Paul Homewood


St Osyth Farmer Guy Smith has been elected NFU vice president


I reported yesterday on how the NFU (National Farmers Union) Vice President, Guy Smith, had been making nonsensical claims about the weather becoming more volatile at a Parliamentary event last week.


So who is Guy Smith? And, more to the point, does he reflect the concerns of ordinary farmers?


Smith was elected to his new post in February this year, but according to the East Anglian Daily Times:


He has represented Essex on the NFU’s Council for eight years and is a former regional chairman of NFU East Anglia. He also chairs the NFU’s communications committee and wrote the book marking the NFU’s centenary in 2008.


The structure of the NFU has been criticised in the past as being “elitist, undemocratic and deeply embedded with multinational businesses”.

Read more…