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UK Winter Forecast From The Met Office

November 3, 2011



The Met Office has now published its 3 month “forecast” for Nov – Jan . As usual it is hedging its bets, giving a 25% chance of colder than normal, 15% warmer and 60% average. However reading between the lines, some interesting statements emerge.

“Whilst the risk that the UK will experience prolonged, very cold conditions like those seen in late November and December 2010 is low, it is not negligible – it is in fact about twice as high as one would expect from just the climatological record.”

If mean UK temperature for November-December-January ends up below normal we would expect the frequency of snow and ice to be markedly above normal.” (Which rather puts the lie to the claim that snow is the result of warmer weather!)

“Sea temperatures around the UK are now close to normal at the surface, and slightly below normal at depth.” (Normal is defined as 1971-2000)

“Forecasts from various sources for November show little agreement, and also highlight a wide range of possible outcomes. For this reason the November forecast shows a broad distribution that favours no particular outcome” (In other words they have not got a clue)

“The forecast slant towards drier-than-average conditions should not be misinterpreted as implying less snow than normal. The frequency of snow and ice is more closely related to temperature – for example last winter was relatively ‘dry’ , but very cold, and snow and ice occurred very often. (So snow is caused by cold NOT by warmth and/or moisture caused by global warming).


The full forecast is here.

Dept for Transport Plans

In response to my FOI request the Department for Transport has given some indication of their winter weather planning which includes :-

1) Having a substantial national strategic salt reserve. (I can personally vouch for this – our local salt mountain is probably 3 times bigger than in previous years).

2) Expansion of the fleet of snow clearance and ice treatment trains for the rail network.

3) Heathrow and Gatwick airports have made significant investments in additional snow and ice clearance capacity,  worth £38 million.


Perhaps nobody has told them about CO2!


  1. Mike Davis permalink
    November 4, 2011 11:14 pm

    I guess your DOT decided to listen to the MET and do the opposite of their forecast. With the Met reputation that was a wise move.

  2. November 5, 2011 3:34 pm

    You hit the nail right square on the head, they are referring to and preparing for the complete opposite of what we were told by the main media outlets and the Anthropogenic climate change alarmist front of these carbon trading scams and international climate policy shysters.

  3. Steve Brown permalink
    November 11, 2011 8:04 pm

    West Sussex County Council have now got almost 100% more salt in store than they had this time last year; they’ve got 2 or 3 more big road salters and at least half a dozen smaller (Landrover-drawn) trailer-salters available for the B roads which remained unsalted for days last year.
    Seems that they don’t believe the MET weasel-word ridden ‘forecasts’ either.

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