Rainfall Trends In England And Wales

By Paul Homewood

 

 

The UK Met Office have now brought their data up to date for 2011, so what do their rainfall trends look like in England?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/actualmonthly/

 

2011 was drier than usual with only 85% of the 1971-2000 average, but the long term trend is remarkably stable, meandering up and down with no discernible direction. Seasonal trends are below.

 

 

 

 

The Spring of 2011 was notable for its lack of rain, with high pressure systems influencing the weather for much of the time. Nevertheless, the average over the last few years is typical of what was seen between about 1935 and 1960. Summer and Autumn rainfall trends are pretty flat and interestingly it is winter rainfall that seems to be declining. (DEFRA’s Climate Risk Assessment Report is forecasting an increase of between 3% and 70% in winter rainfall – there is also some daily rainfall analysis here.)

What about regional trends?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/

 

Again there seem to be no significant trends. There are slight downward trends in the South East and North East, but these appear to be a reflection of higher rainfall levels up to about 1961, Since 1961, the downward trend seems to disappear, as below:-

 

 

Maybe the English climate is more stable than we sometimes think. In the meantime, the BBQ is stopping in the garage!

 

P.S. Apologies to our Welsh friends. The Met Office include Wales within English regions, but not on a national level.