Texas Summer 2011 Heat Wave Seen In Perspective

By Paul Homewood

 

                Summer (Jun-Aug) Temperature
                                            Texas

 

According to James Hansen in his still unpublished climate analysis, “Perceptions of Climate Change: The New Climate Dice.”

“We conclude that extreme heat waves, such as that in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 , were ‘caused’ by global warming, because their likelihood was negligible prior to the recent rapid global warming,”

Certainly last year’s Texas summer was the hottest on record, but does this tell the whole story? How does 2011 compare with previous hot summers, such as 1934 and 1980?

 

McCamey is a small town in the heart of Texas, so is pretty representative of the state’s climate. It is also a USHCN station.

Analysis of the daily temperature records there shows the following distribution of days where maximum temperatures exceeded 105 F :-

 

 

In 2011, the maximum temperature recorded was 108 F and there were nine days above 105 F. By contrast, in 1980, 16 such days, including seven at 109 F or more, and a top temperature of 111 F. In 1934 the maximum temperature reached 113 F, with 11 days over 105 F.

So why was the summer as a whole hotter last year? Quite simply, the heat wave in 2011 lasted longer, right through to the end of August. Indeed on the 31st August the temperature was still 105 F. In comparison, the temperature in August 1980 did not exceed 100 F after the 10th of the month. In 1934, as well, the temperatures were dropping off towards the end of August, with one day down to only 79 F.

The effect of this can easily be seen on the NCDC graph for August temperatures.

 

August Temperature
Texas

 

August temperatures for both 1934 and 1980 were unexceptional.

Last year’s heat wave was no hotter than earlier ones; it simply lasted longer. Hansen is supposed to be a climatologist, so perhaps he might care to explain why this was so.

 

References

1) USHCN temperatures – http://cdiac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/broker?_PROGRAM=prog.climsite_daily.sas&_SERVICE=default&id=415707