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More Muller Errors Found

August 13, 2012

By Paul Homewood



We have already seen that there are large discrepancies between Professor Muller’s Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset (BEST) and the official NCDC figures in Alabama. Muller’s figures quote an increase of 0.72F/century since 1910, whereas NCDC say that temperatures have declined at a rate of 1.3F/century. In other words BEST temperatures appear to overestimated warming by 2.02F. (The full story is here).

Was this just an isolated error? It does not seem so. The same sort of discrepancy has now been found throughout the South Eastern region of the USA. The BEST trends are listed below for the six states which make up this region.



State Mean Rate of Change Since 1910 – Degree Centigrade
Divisional Weighting
Weighted Average
Alabama 0.40 17.576 0.0703
Florida 0.62 19.944 0.1237
Georgia 1.32 20.052 0.2649
N Carolina 0.58 17.952 0.1041
S Carolina 0.44 10.576 0.0465
Virginia 0.75 13.900 0.1043
Weighted Regional Total     0.7138


BEST data can be seen for individual states below.


NCDC calculate the relative areas of each state to work out divisional weighting, which is accessed here.

The BEST graphs below also illustrate these trends.




So effectively BEST are claiming that temperatures across the South East have been increasing at a rate of 0.7138C or 1.28F per century since 1910. But according to the official NCDC numbers, they have not done anything of the sort. Temperatures have actually declined at a rate of 0.50F/century. The BEST figures therefore have overestimated the warming trend by 1.78F/century.


NOAA, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information ServiceNational Climatic Data Center, U.S. Department of Commerce


NOAA NCDC / Climate At A Glance / Climate Monitoring / Search / Help
page delimiter

Climate At A Glance

Annual Temperature
Southeast Region

Annual 1901 – 2000 Average = 62.90 degF
Annual 1910 – 2010 Trend = -0.05 degF / Decade

Output Graph


And remember, the NCDC figures already include adjustments of about 1.0F which have introduced an artificial warming trend by cooling past temperatures.




If the BEST dataset is so badly in error across a large swathe of the US, how much credibility can the whole global record retain?

One Comment
  1. Brian H permalink
    August 13, 2012 11:37 pm

    Muller means miller, one who mills, grinds, pulverizes. The product is then baked into loaves shaped to taste.

    Rarely has such high self-regard been so little deserved.

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