More Muller Errors Found

By Paul Homewood

 

 

We have already seen that there are large discrepancies between Professor Muller’s Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset (BEST) and the official NCDC figures in Alabama. Muller’s figures quote an increase of 0.72F/century since 1910, whereas NCDC say that temperatures have declined at a rate of 1.3F/century. In other words BEST temperatures appear to overestimated warming by 2.02F. (The full story is here).

Was this just an isolated error? It does not seem so. The same sort of discrepancy has now been found throughout the South Eastern region of the USA. The BEST trends are listed below for the six states which make up this region.

 

 

State	Mean Rate of Change Since 1910 – Degree Centigrade /Century	Divisional Weighting %	Weighted Average Degree Centigrade
Alabama	0.40	17.576	0.0703
Florida	0.62	19.944	0.1237
Georgia	1.32	20.052	0.2649
N Carolina	0.58	17.952	0.1041
S Carolina	0.44	10.576	0.0465
Virginia	0.75	13.900	0.1043
Weighted Regional Total			0.7138

 

BEST data can be seen for individual states below.

http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/alabama

http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/florida

http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/georgia

http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/north-carolina

http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/south-carolina

http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/virginia

 

NCDC calculate the relative areas of each state to work out divisional weighting, which is accessed here.

The BEST graphs below also illustrate these trends.

 

 

So effectively BEST are claiming that temperatures across the South East have been increasing at a rate of 0.7138C or 1.28F per century since 1910. But according to the official NCDC numbers, they have not done anything of the sort. Temperatures have actually declined at a rate of 0.50F/century. The BEST figures therefore have overestimated the warming trend by 1.78F/century.

 

DOC > NOAA > NESDIS > NCDC

NCDC / Climate At A Glance / Climate Monitoring / Search / Help

Climate At A Glance

Annual Temperature
Southeast Region

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Annual 1901 – 2000 Average = 62.90 degF
Annual 1910 – 2010 Trend = -0.05 degF / Decade

 

And remember, the NCDC figures already include adjustments of about 1.0F which have introduced an artificial warming trend by cooling past temperatures.

 

http://nidis1.ncdc.noaa.gov/GHCNViewer/

 

If the BEST dataset is so badly in error across a large swathe of the US, how much credibility can the whole global record retain?