UK Climate Change Card – 2012
By Paul Homewood
Climate Change Act 2008
Four years ago, the UK Climate Change Act was passed, committing the UK to huge economic upheaval and a cost, on the governments own figures, of £18 billion a year.
We already know that the government had not sought advice on how much difference the Act would make on temperatures, either globally or nationally. But presumably they would not have passed this legislation unless the effects of climate change in the UK were already becoming noticeable and damaging. So let’s take a look at how the effect that climate change has had on the UK in recent years.
- Using a five year running average, temperatures for 2007-11 are a mere 0.3C higher than the period 1945-49, or the equivalent of driving 42 miles south!
- Using the longer term CET record, the last five years’ temperature averages 10.0C, and compares with 9.85C for the decade 1730-39, an even less significant increase.
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The hottest days measured in Sheffield were 1976 and 1990, when a record of 34.3 was set. in contrast, the highest temperature in the last decade was 31.4C.
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Again in Sheffield, the number of days over 30.0C are on the decline, and in the last decade has been less than the 30’s, 40’s and 70’s.
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Sea levels, after allowing for rising/falling land surfaces, have risen over the last 30 years by between 62mm at North Shields, in the North East, and 48mm in Newlyn in the South West. In other words about 6 to 8 inches per century, and about the same rate it has been rising at since the late 19thC.
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There are no discernible trends in rainfall patterns. The average UK precipitation for 2002-11 is 1150mm p.a., and compares to the long term 1971-2000 average of 1126mm. There has been little change either in seasonal or geographical distribution.
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There has been no increase in heavy rainfall events.
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Extreme weather? The highest wind speed recorded at a low level site in England was 118mph, set in 1979 in Cornwall. Highest 24 hour rainfall? 279mm in Dorset, 1955. Highest 60 minute rainfall? 92mm, Berkshire in 1901. (The only record set in the last decade was the 2-day record for rainfall at Seathwaite.)
The UK government has unsurprisingly been trying to alarm us all with scares ranging from rising sea levels, floods and droughts to extinctions of species, higher insurance costs and tropical diseases. Would it be too much to expect that they check the facts first?
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
References
1) Temperature trends – https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/07/19/uk-temperature-trends/
2) Sea levels – https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/04/30/sea-level-changes-at-holyhead/
3) Rainfall trends – https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/02/09/rainfall-trends-in-england-and-wales/
4) Heavy rainfall – https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/03/04/are-heavy-rainfalls-on-the-increase-in-the-ukpart-ii/
5) Extreme weather – http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/extremes/
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Anyone reading that Directgov page could be forgiven for not realising it was directed at UK citizens. It even manages to make the positive sound negative –
“There are already changes to the way plants and animals live in this country. The period between spring and autumn when plants grow is now about a month longer in central England than it was in around 1900.”
– and the problem with that is WHAT precisely?
Followed by the old hoary “If global temperatures rise by two degrees Celsius, 30 per cent of all land-living species could be threatened by an increased risk of extinction.”. That “magic” 2-degree “threshold” is based on WHAT published research? Then they cap it all with the best source possible – the Stern report!
This is a cracker – “These forests currently absorb large amounts of carbon dioxide that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere.” – do power stations pump the stuff direct to the forests rather than “releasing it into the atmosphere” perhaps?
The graphs tell their own story really, but let’s interpret them in another way:
Using a five year running average, temperatures for 2007-11 are a whopping 0.9C higher than the period 1918-22, or the equivalent of a 126mile Southerly climatic displacement!
Using the longer term CET record, the last five years’ temperature averages 10.0C, and compares with 8.2C for the decade 1690-1700, an even more significant increase!
Temperatures measured in Sheffield show only 4 days reached above 30.0C for the period 1950-1970, compared with 19 days for the period 1990-2010!!
Again in Sheffield, the number of days over 30.0C are on the increase, with 19 in the period 1930-1970 and 32 in the period 1970-2010!!
The smoothed kernel filter in figure 7 shows an upward trend in rainfall volume since the 1970’s, which is consistent with the same trend in mean temperatures shown in figure 1..
It’s great to see this data presented – but all data can be manipulated into the service of one’s own bias and worldview as, I hope, my distorted analysis shows.
Best wishes
All true, but it is really a question of putting current climate into a longer term perspective.