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Global Temperature Updates–August 2012

September 28, 2012

By Paul Homewood

 

This post is the first of a regular monthly series, which will bring the latest global temperature numbers from the four major datasets – GISS, HADCRUT, UAH and RSS. For ease of access, it can also be located on the category bar at the top of the page, under “Global Temperature Adjustments”.

As well as giving the latest monthly figures, I will be keeping track of the 12 month running averages. This, hopefully, will smooth out monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of longer term trends. Currently I believe we tend to be over fixated on calendar year figures, which can change significantly from year to year with ENSO changes and other factors. Use of running averages will remove this concern.

The links below give access to each of the four datasets.

 

August 2012

 

So, first of all, let’s look at the actual numbers for August. HADCRUT numbers are still not available for the month, so I will update these in due course. However the running averages of the other three sets are all either at or below the 2002-11 baseline. (HADCRUT were also below in July).

 

  RSS UAH HADCRUTV3 GISS
August 2012 Anomaly 0.26 0.34 N/A 0.56
Increase/Decrease From Last Month -0.03 +0.06   +0.09
12 Month Running Average 0.16 0.18   0.50
Average 2002-11 0.26 0.18   0.55

                                Global Temperature Anomalies – Degree Centigrade

 

A quick note at this stage :-

1) Each dataset uses a different baseline to calculate their anomaly from, and this is one reason the numbers vary so much and, of course, cannot be compared directly. For information, the periods used are :-

RSS : 1979-1998

UAH : 1981-2010

HADCRUT : 1961-1990

GISS : 1951-80

 

Now let’s take a closer look at the 12 month running averages.

 

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Again, the current position suggests temperatures are at, or below, the run of years between 2002 and 2007.

I had hoped to include a section illustrating how the four datasets had diverged over the years, but will have to delay this until the HADCRUT data is in.

4 Comments
  1. Paul Matthews permalink
    October 3, 2012 11:26 am

    Hadcrut3 for August is 0.51, up 0.06 from July.

    • October 6, 2012 5:38 pm

      Thanks Paul.

      I ‘m just back from a week in Scotland, so I will be catching up with things now.

  2. October 5, 2012 10:43 am

    Paul if you adjust the baseline to 1980-2010, which coincides with a warm PDO cycle, its 0.23 for GISS. And thats with 1200 km smoothing.

    Will keep an eye on these figures, they are adjusting 1950s and 1960s temps to make the current anomaly go higher. Eventually GISS will show warming whilst the other datasets show cooling…and thats when its game over.

    • October 6, 2012 5:37 pm

      You’ll be interested in the graph I am putting up next time, which shows the divergence of the 4 sets since 1980.

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