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Guardian Have All Bases Covered

September 28, 2012

By Paul Homewood

 

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Just in case we get a cold winter this year, the Guardian thought it advisable to warn us that this would no doubt be because of global warming.

The record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer may mean a cold winter for the UK and northern Europe. The region has been prone to bad winters after summers with very low sea ice, such as 2011 and 2007, said Jennifer Francis, a researcher at Rutgers University

Well yes, Jennifer. It has also been prone to mild winters recently. It was also prone to cold winters when the Arctic had more summer ice, and also mild winters in other years at the time. It is actually called “weather”.

Jennifer helpfully explains

"The jet stream is clearly weaker," said Francis. That means weather systems, be it rain or dry conditions, are slow to move on and last longer. Ultimately this can result in "blocking" events, such as the conditions that produced the terrible heatwave in western Russia during the summer of 2010, she said.

What Jennifer is referring to is what meteorologists call a “meridional jet stream”. Meteorologist Jeff Haby explains this phenomenon in layman terms below.

 

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http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/159/

 

Are you keeping up so far, Jennifer? Good. Let’s go onto stage two then.

Hubert Lamb is one of the best known climate scientists of all time, and founded the Climate Research Unit at the UEA. In his book, “Climate: Past, Present & Future”, he talks about the climate during the 1960’s and early 70’s when the Arctic was getting colder and sea ice expanding. He identifies one of the effects of this Arctic shift as

“changes over middle latitudes, where the most significant feature has been the very awkward type of variability from year to year, associated with the behaviour of blocking systems and meridional circulation patterns.” which led to “the extremes of cold and warmth, drought and flood associated with the occurrences of blocking in middle latitudes.”

Scientists at the time even identified the mechanism involved

“The slight drop in temperature produces large numbers of pressure centres in the upper atmosphere. These break up the smooth flow of westerly winds over temperate areas.The stagnant air produced in this way causes an increase in extremes of local weather such as droughts, floods, extended dry spells, long freezes, delayed monsoons and even local temperature increases.”

Of course Lamb and his colleagues might have been wrong. But, if so, perhaps Jennifer might like to explain the UK’s Big Freeze of 1963, which lasted three months and was caused, according to the Met Office, by a high pressure system stuck for most of the winter to the north-east?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1962%E2%80%931963_in_the_United_Kingdom

 

Meanwhile, whether this winter is mild, cold, wet, dry, snowy, windy, or just plain normal, the hacks at the Guardian will have the answer. Global Warming!

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7 Comments
  1. September 28, 2012 5:16 pm

    The climatologists and, consequently, the MSM are not considering the effect of the Sun and we are already at the beginning of a new grand minimum. The great oscillations of “weather” are expected at the beginning due to the adaptation of the climate to the new trend, as a kind of local inertia to the greater, global change.

    The polar glaciers react almost immediately to the solar radiation, but the Arctic ice is more vulnerable due to the large landmasses of N. America and Asia nearby, inducing a more immediate response than in the Antarctic continent.

    After a few years, depending on the intensity of the minimum, the average trend becomes clearly manifested in all aspects of climate, wind patterns, ocean temperatures and oscillations, variations of the jet stream, stratosphere temperature, etc., and the entire Planet starts to cool.

    Some believe that the “warning period” before the colder trend starts full force will be 2013-2017, as in the following interesting comment of Phil Rockke, (and the links there)

    http://iceagenow.info/2012/05/cycles-coming/#comment-27128

    I think that when solar radiation is “normal”, not very low (grand minimum) or very high (as in the 2nd half of the XX century), the climate can be highly influenced by air circulation, the oscillatory heat patterns of the oceans, etc., but during the extremes of solar radiation the entire system quickly adapts to the overwhelming power of the Sun and usually it does so in a matter of few years.
    I believe that in the case of the present minimum this will happen until the end of this decade, as Phil said probably after a couple of years of “instability”.

  2. September 28, 2012 8:18 pm

    Reblogged this on Tallbloke's Talkshop.

  3. Ed Fix permalink
    September 28, 2012 8:52 pm

    OK, so if the winter is exceptionally mild, it’s because of gloal warming. If the winter is exceptionally harsh, it’s because the Arctic ice melted due to global warming. If the winter is normal, we need a huge research grant to discover whether natural variability is making an exceptionally cold winter warmer, or a mild winter colder–but it’s all due to global warming. Have I missed anything?

  4. Sparks permalink
    September 28, 2012 9:58 pm

    Reblogged this on Sparks ~Engineering and Science..

  5. September 28, 2012 10:41 pm

    Global warming, global cooling, and even global saminess are all due to the influence of the magic gas. It’s the ultimate in unfalsifiable metatheory.

    Whether co2 makes it warm or whether it makes it cold, whether is the new weather, whatever.

  6. September 29, 2012 4:54 am

    Reblogged this on contrary2belief and commented:
    Churnalism at its peak!
    Filling the blanks between the adverts can be done by a 4-year-old. As the Guardian demonstrates.

  7. Brian H permalink
    October 3, 2012 8:32 am

    And all so easy because CO2 has virtually no effect, so it’s the perfect patsy.

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