UK Headed For Coldest March Since 1970
By Paul Homewood
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
Currently the CET is running at 1.5C colder than the 1961-90 baseline, or, more relevantly, about 2.0C below the 1981-2010 average now used by the Met Office.
The week ahead is forecast to turn even colder, with more snow predicted and a Met Office yellow alert issued.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/
If the month remains at 3.8C, it will finish as the coldest March since 1970, which was 3.7C.
The second coldest March since 1970 was in 1987, when the CET was 4.1C. Given that, hopefully, things might start to get a little warmer towards the end of the month, we will probably end up slightly higher than 1987.
However, the next coldest since then was 4.5C in 1996. It seems unlikely temperatures this month will beat that.
Following on from another cold winter, and a dismal 2012, global warming seems to be passing us by.
Welcome the LIA – look at the sunspots!
When these small spots disappear over the suns limb and no new spots emerge the sun will be blank yet again. The Stormy Geomagnetic conditions also seem to be short lived for this solar max.
Low solar activity and a weak solar cycle with the occurrence of a major cold period proves to me that the Anthropogenic global warming alarmists have used temperatures recorded during very active solar cycles to inflate their alarm, this is why they dismiss the sun.
Looking at the latest run of the European model, looks like UK temps should average well below normal thru the 28th. The models can bust with storms but are generally fairly good with overall weather pattern.
Most of US pretty cold as well, with even a couple more snow threats for DC. It is getting very late in late seaaon for us. Will believe it when I see it.
All this raises the interesting question – what use are ‘explanations’? I have always thought of them as a way of stopping people asking questions. Because of the complexity of the world and the paucity of our understanding of it, ‘explanations’ seem to have no more than social value. The history of the AGW ‘explanation’ will make interesting reading. Seemingly, there is a good chance that it will not be theoretical physics that will refute the AGW theory but cold hard facts that will be observable by everyone in the street. I think that we al too easily attribute the advances in civil living of the last two centuries to science. Perhaps it was technology, rather than science, that deserves our salute.
You’re right. But I sometimes think we “humans” have a need for explanations, even where none exist. How many times do we watch conjurers and then want to know how nthey do it.
I think it is something to do with the need to feel we are in control.
But is this a human ‘need’ or a cultural artefact as it were? It seems to me that since the Enlightenment we have come full circle from innocent acceptance of things as they are (kismet rules OK?) through empirical experiment and observation and a belief in fundamental “Laws” of Nature to passive acceptance of the utterances of “experts”. Now we are surprised to find that the experts are humans fallible or corrupt like the priests of old. Have we come to believe that we have a ‘right’ to ask ‘why?’ and so have accepted that resulting ‘explanation’ as a ‘good’ to be transacted in a some kind of market place? Perhaps there should be a ‘cap’ on concept trading and we should just get on with living as best we can? Sorry, just been reading Wittgenstein in the doctor’s waiting room!
Paul,
Did you see today’s European model run? Looks like UK is going to run the table with easterlies and much below temps for the rest of the month! If so, how will this March rank for cold in historical terms? Beat 1970?
Had much snow lately?
Quite cold in much of US as well.
Thanks,
Andy
Hi Andy
The forecast through Sunday suggests we will stay at or below 1970 level. Forecast for next is anybody’s guess, but my guess is that it will come slightly warmer.
It’s now March the 31st here in blizzard country, Englandland. Just writing this to the record.
The nice man who dances in front of the BBC weather chart has told us its looking like the coldest day in March for 50 years.
Even so, we must note the powerful cold Easterlies creating snow as the warmer, wetter air from the South is trying and failing to come in.
Paul
Do you have any thoughts on whether the CET record has run ‘overwarm’ in recent years as not suffcient allowance has been made for UHI by the Met office since their meagre readjustment for UHI?.
In my historical research, looking at observations, crop records, bird migration, forestry etc it is difficult to see too much difference between today and the 1740’s 1640’s and various other periods but the instrumental record shows otherwise. I suspect not enough allowance for UHI.
If the real explanation is that the temperatures WERE higher around 1995-2005 than at any other time in recent history, we might as well all emigrate if the short blip of warmth is too be replaced by ‘normal’ temperatures that we have enjoyed either side of the warm blip
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
tonyb
Tony
I was told they allow 0.2C for a UHI adjustment, which does not seem a lot.
I have done some number crunching with Eskdalemuir which is pretty much rural. (I have been up there a few times). Comparing temperature change there with Paisley, the 0.2C did not seem unrealistic, but this was only on temperature trends since 1910.
It may well be that a UHI effect was already strong in Paisley by 1910, that would not have shown up 200 years earlier.
I suppose what we really need is a direct comparison of 18thC records with similar rural locations today, but there is a distinct lack of the latter in England.
Paul
Yes, an 0.2C adjustment seems rather trivial bearing in mind that the whole of the UK is a giant heat island. I understand our entire country is smaller than New York state.
It just seems impossible that we are now looking longingly in the back mirror as the ‘warmest ever ‘decade disappears rapidly from view. Is what we have now truly what we should think of as ‘normal-or even slightly warmer than normal? Its a depressing thought.
The historic non instrumental records I researched in order to write ‘The long slow thaw’ seem to suggest we have had periods as warm as today in the last 500 years.
http://judithcurry.com/2011/12/01/the-long-slow-thaw/
I have ready access to the met office library, what sort of records were you thinking of in order to make a direct comparison and identify the correct uhi figure?
tonyb
We would need to compare trends in temperature using 18thC records v current ones, if genuinely rural locations still exist nearby. Then compare this with CET.
At the end of the day though, what is “normal”? Surely normal is what we have all experienced in the recent past, say 30 yrs, rather than what our fathers lived with, never mind their great great grandfathers. Under that definition, the last few years have definitely been colder than normal.
Paul
What is normal? looks like its back to the cold of the 70’s. How depressing…I wonder how long it will be before the powers that be realise that Plan ‘B’ is needed
Tonyb