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Cold Winters Caused By………Cold!

March 23, 2013

By Paul Homewood



Springtime in Yorkshire



There have been recent attempts to link some of the cold weather and snow, experienced in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere in the last few winters, to global warming.

For instance, Skeptical Science claimed in 2011:-

Well, the effects of global warming are all around us. That harsh winter that we are experiencing, it is not proof that global warming is not happening, but rather serves as proof that it is indeed happening, and even a bit faster than we might like to think. It also shows why the phrase "Climate Change" is a better term to describe the effects of man on his environment. “

and quoted Vladimir Petoukhov, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute

These anomalies could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe and northern Asia. Recent severe winters like last year’s or the one of 2005-06 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it. “

More recently, the International Arctic Research Centre reported on a study by Chinese scientists with the headline “Climate change brings colder winters to Europe and Asia”.

WWF Russia made similar claims, as did Jennifer Francis of Rutgers last September.


However, the latest data from GISS shows that such claims are just so much hot air (sorry for the pun!).




Figure 1 – GISS Temperature Anomalies


The map shows the temperature anomalies, for the winter just ended, against the 1981-2010 baseline. In the top right hand corner is the global anomaly – a mere 0.10C. So the global warming, that is claimed to be the cause of the recent (and continuing) cold winter, simply does not exist at all to any significant degree, particularly since most of the little warming identified arose in the 1980’s and 90’s.

Indeed, in the last 10 years global temperatures for Dec to Feb have declined by 0.19C, as can be seen in Figure 2.




Figure 2 – Winter Temperature Trend 2004-2013



So, as global temperatures have actually fallen during the NH winter in recent years, cold winters cannot be due to global warming. No warming, no theory! If I were to hazard a guess, they might just have been caused by global cooling!





Two totally unconnected questions spring to mind, when looking at the above maps.


1) In Figure 1, there is a chunk of the Arctic just above Finland which is bright red. Yet it is next to a large swathe of dark blue. Given the lack of stations up there, how reliable is this projection?

2) Australia has just had its supposedly record breaking “Angry Summer”. Yet, looking at Figure 2, it looks, if anything, colder than 2004. Odd?

  1. March 24, 2013 12:37 am

    Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings.

  2. Sleepalot permalink
    March 24, 2013 2:01 am

    Sorry to be off-topic, but I’ve been looking at the Crutem3 database and I think I’ve found something interesting, but I’m just an
    ignorant “Joe Public”. Is this something, or nothing?

    • Sleepalot permalink
      March 26, 2013 11:53 am

      I got 50 views and no comments, so I’m no wiser as to why Phil Jones would want to systemataically warm winters and cool summers.
      Still, this one is easier to understand …
      my error: has been updated: was Holar Hornafirdi

      • Sleepalot permalink
        March 27, 2013 6:51 pm

        My appologies to readers, Imade a mistake onHolar Hornafirdi. Updated graph here –
        Holar Hornafirdi 2

  3. max moose permalink
    March 24, 2013 7:44 am

    You simply do not understand the science behind global warming. If the weather is warm, that’s global warming. If the weather is cold, that is also because of global warming. If there are hurricanes and tornadoes…global warming. But if there are blizzards in late March, also global warming! If the weather is wet it’s global warming, if the wheather is dry it’s global warming. Here in Florida we have had several years of freakisly cold winters in a row, obviously the results of global warming. As the winters grow worse in the Northern U.S. and we slide toward a new ice age, just remember: no matter what the the weather or the climate is, it’s global warming!!!

  4. March 24, 2013 11:53 am

    Max Moose, you forgot two obligatory phrases 1) AGW is settled science, 2) Its simple physics!

  5. Ian W permalink
    March 24, 2013 4:12 pm

    You are a member of the ‘Team’ you have persuaded politicians to fund you and you have come out with an unfalsifyable hypothesis that suits the aims of the funding politicians perfectly more taxes more power. The various ‘money men’ and banks see ways of salami slicing more profits from managing complex taxing schemes. The only problem is that it has stopped warming. The public who initially swallowed the hypothesis as it _was_ indubitably warmer are now getting restive. They are being taxed heavily on everything, the ‘free energy’ actually costs more – a LOT more, with the result that more jobs go to India and China (Maurice Strong’s new home) and so the productivity of the country drops and the one club golfer politicians put taxes and energy prices higher. It gets colder still with the effect that even in dynamic Germany more than 600,000 are in energy poverty and started to live ‘off grid’. In UK they are forecasting rolling power cuts due to closing coal fired generating stations because of Global Warming and CO2 limits. Deaths of old people are now increasing noticeably…..

    If the public get wind of the fact that this was all a scam that got researchers funding and tenure – and the researchers were assisting the politicians at lining their pockets. And granny has just died of cold. There will be members of the public that lose their sense of humor. They will be looking for someone to blame for the scam. And there smiling out of a ‘Global Warming Brochure’ is a research scientist all tanned from the latest 8 hours of work in 7 days in the tropics. If I was a researcher I would be either looking for an exit strategy or trying to con the public again. Cold is Warm – Warm is Cold is just that an attempt to fool all the people all of the time.

    It is being pointed out in UK that the politicians have lost the public’s trust. Just the same is being said in the USA. I have a feeling that this will not end prettily as do the politicians which may explain other actions they are taking especially in the USA.

  6. March 24, 2013 8:44 pm

    Just for fun I was going to link to that infamous 2000 Independent article but someone beat me to it. I seem to recall that it was the Indy’s most popular post in 2010. I followed the link and re-read it, it gets funnier and funnier each passing year.

    I can’t help wondering how long the warming/CO2 is evil meme can survive. It seems that a great many influential people have put all of their eggs into this basket and now don’t know what else to do but to try to keep the deception going. Presumably there will come a point when those who change sides first will be looked upon more favourably by the baying mob, and the more astute of the alarmists will start to jump ship.

  7. Paul Matthews permalink
    March 25, 2013 1:19 pm

    Somebody on twitter found this gem from the Met Office in 2007:

    The Met Office’s figures for the UK from the beginning of December to the end of February showed that the winter had not only been warmer, but also wetter than average.

    This matched the sort of conditions that the UK was expected to experience as a result of climate change, Mr Elliott said.

    “It is consistent with the climate change message,” he told BBC News. “It is exactly what we expect winters to be like – warmer and wetter, and dryer and hotter summers.

  8. tckev permalink
    March 25, 2013 8:25 pm

    Because, winter kills far easier than summer heat.

  9. March 27, 2013 8:39 am

    That latter graph looks as though someone has made a mistake entering the data. The early part of the graph is almost identical but shifted in time, later part does have discrepancies, so it makes you wonder if the whole series should be rexamined for human error.

    • Sleepalot permalink
      March 27, 2013 6:41 pm

      Yes, you’re right – I made a mistake.

      • Sleepalot permalink
        March 27, 2013 6:50 pm

        Holar Hornafirdi updated
        Holar Hornafirdi 2

      • March 28, 2013 12:25 pm

        I wonder then if CRU has made simple mistakes or if there is some rationalisation they have applied. On my climate change page I noticed some disrepancies.

        “Here is the difference between the above average temperatures for the year compared with the Met Office released CRU data for Oxford. I have asked the Met Office to check my calculations.”

        I seem to remember a fudged answer. I might get round to comparing some other station data.

        Keep up the good work

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