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Team Moron Prediction In 2009 – “World will warm faster than predicted in next five years, study warns”

May 28, 2013

By Paul Homewood






Back in 2009, the Guardian reported:-


The world faces record-breaking temperatures as the sun’s activity increases, leading the planet to heat up significantly faster than scientists had predicted for the next five years, according to a study.

The hottest year on record was 1998, and the relatively cool years since have led to some global warming sceptics claiming that temperatures have levelled off or started to decline. But new research firmly rejects that argument.

The research, to be published in Geophysical Research Letters, was carried out by Judith Lean, of the US Naval Research Laboratory, and David Rind, of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

The work is the first to assess the combined impact on global temperature of four factors: human influences such as CO2 and aerosol emissions; heating from the sun; volcanic activity and the El Niño southern oscillation, the phenomenon by which the Pacific Ocean flips between warmer and cooler states every few years.

The analysis shows the relative stability in global temperatures in the last seven years is explained primarily by the decline in incoming sunlight associated with the downward phase of the 11-year solar cycle, together with a lack of strong El Niño events. These trends have masked the warming caused by CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

As solar activity picks up again in the coming years, the research suggests, temperatures will shoot up at 150% of the rate predicted by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Lean and Rind’s research also sheds light on the extreme average temperature in 1998. The paper confirms that the temperature spike that year was caused primarily by a very strong El Niño episode. A future episode could be expected to create a spike of equivalent magnitude on top of an even higher baseline, thus shattering the 1998 record.



Meanwhile, back in the real world.






None of this stops Team Moron from still predicting the same doom. Lord Stern has been at it again this week, with the Telegraph’s  Loopy Lou reporting:-


Lord Stern pointed out that all these effects run in cycles or are random so warming could accelerate again soon.

“In the next five to ten years it is likely we will see the acceleration because these things go in cycles,” he warned…


No doubt, they’ll be saying the same thing in five years time, and dopey birds will continue to print the rubbish.

  1. May 28, 2013 3:02 pm

    Give them a break…even smart people are stupid when they have an agenda.

  2. May 28, 2013 6:35 pm

    The Arctic Ice was also supposed to have all disappeared by 2013 as well, remember seeing that one on Accuweather’s AGW blog some time around 2006 or 2007. Now ‘they’ are saying 2050.

  3. Latimer Alder permalink
    May 29, 2013 6:41 am

    Gotta love this remark from the journo, Duncan Clark.

    ‘ A particularly hot autumn and winter could add to the pressure on policy makers to reach a meaningful deal at December’s climate-change negotiations in Copenhagen.’

    How’s that working out for you nowadays, Dunc?

    (New readers may not know that heavy snowfall (aka ‘The Gore Effect’) in Copenhagen is considered to be one factor in the complete fiasco that the talks became. Along with the failure of the developing countries to play ball)

  4. Paul Matthews permalink
    May 29, 2013 7:44 am

    The paper referred to is here. Lean & RInd 2009, “How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades?”

    In the abstract it says
    “From 2009 to 2014, projected rises in anthropogenic influences and solar irradiance will increase global surface temperature 0.15 ± 0.03C, at a rate 50% greater than predicted by IPCC”.

  5. Martin Walsh permalink
    May 31, 2013 1:31 pm

    I agree with Stern – theses things come in NATURAL cycles. That said, he flatly contradicts the central argument of AGW i.e. an inexorable one way (up) increase in temperature due to increasing CO2 emissions. Go figure!!

  6. Rosco permalink
    May 31, 2013 11:43 pm

    Climate scientists claim that it is valid to add two discrete radiative fluxes and use that sum to calculate a valid temperature for that sum. This assumption is used in all the teaching of the basic greenhouse effect as well as in computer model code.

    I have conducted a simple experiment which I say proves this assumption is simply wrong.

    Doubling the power of a single source of radiation ( say from 478 W/sq m ~303 Kelvin to 956 W/sq m or ~360 Kelvin) undoubtedly causes the temperature to increase to a value of the original temperature multiplied by the fourth root of two.

    Combining two equal sources at say 478 W/sq m ~303 Kelvin or 30 degrees C does not produce the same result – I have proven it.

    Yet this assumption is used in climate science and it is WRONG!

  7. higley7 permalink
    June 4, 2013 2:45 pm

    I love the prediction that temps might go above the 1998 spike, completely ignoring the fact that 1998 did not come close to 1938. In fact it matched the 1953 temperature when we were already actively cooling. Ignoring also that the recent temperature values have been warmed and thus adulterated beyond recognition. THEN, they make comparisons? Rriigghhtt!


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