Greg Barker Wants 20GW Of Solar Power
By Paul Homewood
According to the Telegraph, ” Energy Minister, Greg Barker, wants 20GW of energy to be produced by solar panels in 2020. “
First, let’s correct some sloppy reporting. Barker is not talking about “energy production”, but about capacity. (20GW would be enough to supply nearly half the country’s electricity supply!)
Having got that out of the way, let’s see how the 20GW target fits into the overall situation. Latest figures from DECC show a capacity for solar of 1.6 GW, based on 2012 Q4, so we are looking at a 12-fold increase. However, on average, solar only produces about 10% of its capacity. Based on this, 20GW capacity would only yield about 17 TWh a year, or 4% of the UK’s total electricity output.
It gets worse though, as during winter months the load factor falls to a half of that of the summer months. Consequently, during the winter when demand for power is greatest, solar would only provide at best 2%. (These figures are based on DECC’s quarterly figures, so in reality months like December and January will be lower still).
And the cost of all this? According to the Renewable Energy Foundation, a conservative estimate of the subsidy that solar farms receive, on top of the value of the electricity they supply, is £60/MWh. Based on this, the annual subsidy would be £1.05 bn, every year for 20 years.
Their estimate is almost certainly on the low side, as small scale projects earn bigger subsidies. For instance, Feed In Tariffs for households and other small projects give an effective subsidy of £110/MWh. There are also other costs to consider:-
- The cost of linking the grid to remote sites.
- Stand by payments for gas power stations to cover for intermittent solar output.
- Payments to solar farms to shut down in summer months, when their supply is at the highest, but demand at the lowest.
Which all seems a hell of a lot of money to spend for the tiny amount of energy they will supply.
References
1) Electricity statistics from DECC
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/renewables-section-6-energy-trends
2) Renewable Energy Foundation
http://www.ref.org.uk/publications/297-solar-photovoltaic-generation-in-the-united-kingdom
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
This is yet another example of the Tories lining their pockets before they inevitably get kicked out at the next election. Other examples are the awarding of contracts for HS2, which, nobody wants, and building more wind turbines, which, as Paul has already pointed out, won’t work because companies won’t build gas-fired stations if they can’t sell electricity when wind is producing electricity. They don’t care though – it’s lining our pockets time, chaps.
Maybe Barker actually means 20gw of production, in which case the capacity would have to be 200gw.
We have to take the man at his word!
The Palace of Westminster has only limited south-facing roofs. However, there is absolutely no practical reason why all such free space should not be 100% utilised for solar-pv, to set a good example for the rest of us.
Gaia put humans here to undo the death-spiral of geological sequestration of CO2. We should get on with it.