Global Temperature Update–May 2013

By Paul Homewood

 

 

	RSS	UAH	HADCRUT4	GISS
May 2013	0.14	0.08	0.50	0.56
Change from last month	-0.08	-0.02	0.07	0.06
12 month running average	0.25	0.23	0.47	0.58
Average 2003-12	0.24	0.19	0.48	0.58

 

 

A bit unusual this month, with satellites down slightly, and surface up slightly. Nevertheless, all sets show the 12-month running averages at close to the 10-year figure, and current satellite figures are well below.

The likelihood is that this 12-month average will decline over the next few months, as the higher, El Nino induced temperatures from last summer disappear from the average.

Finally, a look at the MEI Index shows that ENSO conditions remain neutral, with a number of + 0.069 for April/May, (0.500 being regarded as significant). This means that conditions have been neutral since last August. My guess is that, if conditions remain neutral, annual temperatures for 2013 will end up the same or slightly below 2012’s.

Graphs are below.