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Myles Allen Admits Nobody Forecast Temperature Standstill

July 5, 2013

By Paul Homewood





Prof Myles Allen from the University of Oxford, interviewed by the BBC this week about global temperatures, has finally admitted that:-


no-one predicted the shorter-timescale lack-of-trend we have seen since 2000


Finally a bit of honesty.

Thank you, Professor.

  1. edmh permalink
    July 5, 2013 11:07 am

    Some temperature information much of it based on HADCET:

    Since 2000 the HADCET has lost all the temperature gains made from 1850 onwards and more.

    The annual temperature has fallen so far at a rate of -0.59 degC in the last 12 years.

    The winter DJFM temperature has fallen -1.45 degC in the last 13 years.

    2013 Jan – June CET temperatures are running at ~73% of the average 2000 – 2012. This has lead to significant crop failures throughout the Northern Hemisphere.

    Current 2013 temperatures are 1.89degC cooler that the average for the same period 2000 – 2012

    There was a particularly active solar period from about 1970 onward coinciding well with sunspot cycles 21 – 22 – 23. That solar effect lead to comparatively rapid warming and thus the great Global Warming scare.

    The current cycle 24 is very much weaker: sunspots are diminishing to the levels of the earlier Little Ice Age. Solar experts expect this trend to continue and anticipate that the next solar cycle 25 from 2020 onwards will be even less active.

    Over the past 10,000 years the current Holocene epoch has been progressively cooling since the early “climate optimum”. Overall in the 10,000 years of the Holocene the world has cooled by about 1.0 °C.

    The most recent millennium 1000 – 2000 AD has been the coolest millennium of the Holocene.

    At 10,000+ years the Holocene epoch is due to end quite soon.

    Climate scientists should wake up and smell the coffee.

    Perhaps its the sun and planetary mechanics that control the climate

  2. Paul-82 permalink
    July 5, 2013 12:11 pm

    “Perhaps its the sun and planetary mechanics that control the climate”

    Indeed, a few have done so, and have predicted a change – cooling – in publications well before the end of the 20th century. The most notable are: Rhodes Fairbridge, Theodore Landscheidt and Ivanka Charvàtovà from the Geophysical Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences (Prague).

  3. Joe Public permalink
    July 5, 2013 1:31 pm

    ““no-one predicted the shorter-timescale lack-of-trend we have seen since 2000”

    Finally a bit of honesty.”

    Not so much a lack-of-trend as a lack-of-warming; and, it began before Y2K. So more an economy-of-truth than ‘honesty’, methinks.

  4. Sparks permalink
    July 5, 2013 2:18 pm

    “no-one predicted the shorter-timescale lack-of-trend we have seen since 2000”

    No-one of the Anthropogenic Global Warming variety predicted this so-called “lack-of-trend”, people who understand this to be all or mostly natural variability expected to see this “lack-of-trend” or lack-of-warming, the longer-timescale of natural variability shows us that temperatures continuously varied from warm to cold at various rates over past eons, and unless a person has a biased view of there being no variability during a “shorter-timescale” and expected temperatures to continue to climb and climb, then of-course you’re going to be wrong and make incorrect predictions based on this bias, in this case spectacularly so.

    It’s not much of an admission from Prof Myles Allen and it sounds like all this failure will be played down by the BBC whom has itself been a biased tool of propaganda and not a publicly funded source of balanced information.

  5. July 5, 2013 2:36 pm

    Can someone tell me while the “lack of trend” and the late 20th C warming period are so far of about the same length, but that we must discount the former while giving the latter our fullest attention?

    • July 5, 2013 4:19 pm

      Nobody is discounting the former. It has happened and we can’t turn back the clock (even if we wanted to).

      The current standstill is important for what it says about the future. Models have not predicted it, and it raises questions whether GHG caused the earlier warming.

      As we are about to wreck or economy on the basis of models that predict accelerating warming, it seems a good idea to take stock.

  6. July 6, 2013 2:38 pm

    The IPCC reports projected an average .20C increase in the first decades of the 21st century and so far it is ZERO.

  7. richardcfromnz permalink
    July 6, 2013 10:11 pm

    Nobody that Myles Allen knows of that is. He could read:

    ‘New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?’

    Dr. Theodor Landscheidt, Energy and Environment (2003)

    11. Outlook

    We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast of the next deep Gleissberg minimum is correct. A declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should become manifest long before the deepest point in the development. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23 with its considerably weaker activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago. As to temperature, only El Niño periods should interrupt the downward trend, but even El Niños should become less frequent and strong. The outcome of this further long-range climate forecast solely based on solar activity may be considered to be a touchstone of the IPCC’s hypothesis of man-made global warming.

  8. Brian H permalink
    July 7, 2013 4:44 pm

    He asserts that the “lack of trend” is “short-term”. And he knows this, how?

    Watch out for weasel-words


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