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UAH June Update & Holidays

July 12, 2013

By Paul Homewood

 

Roy Spencer has published the UAH numbers for June. At 0.30C, these are considerably up from May, when anomalies were exceptionally low at 0.08C.

UAH have also updated to a new version, but unfortunately these are still not on their database.

I was also hoping the RSS and GISS numbers would be out by now. As they are not, I will have to wait till I return from holiday to report on them.

 

A look at the AMSU temperature graph gives a clue as to what has happened. (AMSU is one of the sources of satellite data). There was a sharp uptick towards the end of June, but things have begun to level off since.

 

image

http://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/amsutemps.pl

 

The graph below shows how UAH numbers have fluctuated over the last year.However,an anomaly of 0.30C is not unusual, as this figure has been equalled or topped on 27 occasions in the last 10 years.

 

image

 

Finally, Bob Tisdale reports that ocean temperatures are down slightly, so this too may have been a factor.

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/07/08/june-2013-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/

 

 

Holidays

Meanwhile, I am away for a couple of weeks. There are a few posts scheduled to go out, but otherwise things will be quiet.

 

Footnote – RSS

RSS numbers are just out, and show a much smaller increase than UAH – from 0.14C to 0.29C.

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One Comment
  1. David permalink
    July 21, 2013 7:37 am

    Paul,

    The graph you show above depicting June 2012-June 2013 UAH temperature anomalies averages to 0.25C, making it the third warmest such period in the UAH record.

    It is only beaten by 1997/98 and 2009/10. Both of these periods were strongly influenced by natural warming from prolonged officially classified El Nino episodes.

    In the case of 1997/98 the El Nino episode started in Apr/May/Jun 1997 and ended in Mar/Apr/May 1998, during which time the NOAA ENSO 3-month average value was +1.7.

    In the case of 2009/10, the El Nino episode started in Jun/Jul/Aug 2009 and ended in Mar/Apr/May 2012, during which time the NOAA ENSO 3-month average value was +1.1.

    During the period between Apr/May/Jun 2012 to Apr/May/Jun 2013, no El Nino episodes occurred, and in fact the average ENSO 3-month average value was slightly negative (cooling), at -0.1.

    ENSO neutral conditions appear to favour Jun-Jun warming in UAH nearly as much as El Nino conditions do.

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