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India Forecast To Double CO2 Emissions By End Of Century

July 25, 2013
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By Paul Homewood

 

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A recent study by Ullash Rout of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University College in Cork has attempted to forecast energy demand and emissions in India up to the end of the century.

They estimate that India’s emissions by then will amount to 4414 Mt of CO2 a year. This compares to the latest figures for 2011, available from CDIAC, of 2255 Mt.

In comparison, the UK currently emits 458 Mt pa.

 

 

Abstract

For any nation, sector-wise forecasts of energy demand and emissions are becoming valuable elements in devising its national and international policies relating to energy security, local environment, and global climate change. It is in this context that this work attempts to forecast India’s possible energy demands and emissions adopting a key indicator approach on least cost generation expansion optimization methodology for a long time frame. This study developed key indicators for useful-energy demand for end-use sectors such as industry, commerce, and residence. Key indicators for transport sector and non-energy use sectors were developed on transport mobility demand and end-use fuel demand. The main drivers of these key indicators are socio-economic parameters. This work was conducted in a linear programmed (LP) TIMES G5 model on TIMES modelling framework for model horizon of 1990–2100. By the end of the 21st-century, India’s energy demands are projected to be about 1825 Mtoe of primary energy, 1263 Mtoe of final energy consumption, 4840 TWh of electricity generations, 723 Mtoe of energy import, and 4414 Mt of CO2 emissions.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511003090

One Comment
  1. Brian H permalink
    July 27, 2013 12:42 am

    Excellent! I’ll be long gone, but our progeny will reap the myriad benefits of improved CO2 supply.

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