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Central England Temperature Updates–August 2013

September 2, 2013

By Paul Homewood

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Despite what the Met Office have provisionally called the warmest summer since 2006, the CET remains below average for the year as a whole. At 9.51C, it is 0.28C below the 1961-90 baseline.

More relevantly, the YTD is running at 0.89C below the 1981-2010 mean of 10.40C.

The 12-Month running average, as shown below, is also running well below normal too. The latest figure is 9.20C, and compares to the annual 1981-2010 mean of 9.97C.

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

 

Since January 2009, the 12-Month average has been below the mean for 40 out of 56 months.

Assuming the last four months of the year are the same as the 1981-2010 mean, the year will finish at about 9.40C, which would make it the second coldest since 1996, behind only the exceptionally cold year of 2010.

8 Comments
  1. David permalink
    September 2, 2013 10:01 pm

    “Assuming the last four months of the year are the same as the 1981-2010 mean…”

    Why would you assume that?

    I see that September is off to a warm start.

    • September 3, 2013 9:13 am

      Don’t be ludicrous.

      The Met Office have absolutely no idea what temperatures will be for the rest of the year, so why do you expect me to know?

  2. Brian H permalink
    September 3, 2013 2:34 am

    David;
    The default assumption id always the baseline. That’s what it’s for, in part.

  3. September 5, 2013 5:40 pm

    Warm start to Sept due to change in coming days to below avg. This copied from a comment at TBs Talkshop;

    I overheard a human ‘goldfish’ today saying the current warmth was a sign of global warming – because it never was warm before in early September let alone later in the year like November (*coughs*). The confusion was palpable when I mentioned warm patches in 1868, 1880, 1899, 1906, 1919, 1933. Then again he could be right as Trenbath’s ‘wandering hotspot’ is currently over my head as it obviously was back then

    I noted my local Beeb news (South) implying how unusual the warmth has been (presumably leaving goldfish to connect dots so any warmth=cagw). Notable also for their ommission of how blooming cold it was the weekend when what looks like a mobile polar high passed over (moved east allowing warm ridge up).

    I intend to do a post of my own on it but just casting a line for your thoughts Paul. To me it is standard fare, especially in light of recent meridional jetstream flow thatgoes up and down but also well noted during the global cooling scare. I also recall well how anomolous the 1880s are to today with similar seasonal extremes (e.g. Mar 1883+2013 & Nov 1881+2011). Whilst not average, it is nothing special and not even lasting, however I tend to focus on S/SE where it’s norm (e.g. Jul heatwave was similar to 2010 here). Further North has me less certain.

    So was a 3 day ridge of Tropical air before equinox really that unusual or just unusual in recent context?

Trackbacks

  1. Central England Temperature: A Cooling Trend? | The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)
  2. Britain’s Warm, But Unremarkable Summer | Watts Up With That?

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