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The “Rapidly Warming Arctic”

September 19, 2013

By Paul Homewood




How often do we hear the claim that the Arctic is warming rapidly?

Well, let’s see what the RSS satellite temperatures tell us about what’s been actually happening in the last decade.




Just like global temperatures, Arctic ones have been flat. Yet Arctic amplification is supposed to be driving temperatures there up at much faster rates.

Still, I suppose, double nothing is still nothing.

  1. Jeffery permalink
    September 19, 2013 5:33 pm

    Again, the graph shows temperature anomalies (degrees C above the 1981-2000 mean, I believe), which suggests that temperatures have consistently been above that level, although the increase has remained flat. It appears the Arctic IS warmer, but that this warming has not “rapidly increased,” and the rate of warming is not “rapidly increasing.”

    • September 19, 2013 6:08 pm

      That’s right. The bulk of the warming took place in the 1990’s, so the last decade is warmer then the baseline (1979-98).

      Since 2003, though, there has effectively been no more warming at all.

      Evidence suggests that there was significant cooling in the Arctic between 1940 and 1979, so how much warmer is the Arctic now than 1940? Unfortunately, without satellites in the 1940’s, we won’t know.

      My guess would be a little warmer now, reflecting the general warming trend since the LIA.

      Bottom line is that, if AGW theory is correct, we should be seeing Arctic temperatures still increasing. We are not.


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