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95% Confidence That The Met Office Don’t Have A Clue!

September 28, 2013

By Paul Homewood


We are told that the IPCC have 95% confidence in their climate models, despite their utter failure to forecast the lack of warming in the last 17 years.

It is, perhaps, therefore a good time to remind ourselves what the UK Met Office have been

forecasting year after year.


Back in 2007, they launched their first decadal forecast of global temperatures, which forecast


the year 2014 predicted to be 0.30° ± 0.21°C [5 to 95% confidence interval (CI)] warmer than the observed value for 2004. Furthermore, at least half of the years after 2009 are predicted to be warmer than 1998, the warmest year currently on record.





And how did that prediction turn out?




And it was not just this one forecast. In 2010, for instance, they were still forecasting that half of the next decade would be hotter than the 1998 figure of 0.53C. Even after adjusting 1998 temperatures down by 0.1C, in the switch from HADCRUT3 to HADCRUT4, temperatures since 2010 have remained well below 1998 levels.

Yet we are expected to believe they can forecast the next century?

  1. Don permalink
    September 28, 2013 6:51 pm

    Re-posted the second chart on Defending The Truth dot com.

  2. cornwallwindwatch permalink
    September 29, 2013 7:28 am

    Reblogged this on Cornwall Wind Watch.

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