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England On Course For 2nd Coldest Year Since 1996

October 3, 2013

By Paul Homewood

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Based on the Central England Temperature index, England is still on course for the second coldest year since at least 1996. September was 0.1C warmer than the 1961-90 average, but, more significantly, 0.3C colder than the 1981-2010 mean.

The YTD is now 0.24C colder than 1961-90, and if this anomaly remains the same, the year would finish at 9.24C.

It is highly unlikely the year will finish as cold as 2010, which ended at 8.83C, but the next coldest year since 1996 was last year at 9.70C.

For this year to end up warmer than 2012, the last three months of the year would have to be some two degrees warmer than normal.

It is also still quite possible that, with even a slightly colder end to the year than usual, this year could end up as the second coldest since 1986.

Meanwhile, this year continues the trend towards colder than average years, which has been prevalent during the last 5 years.

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

 

For what it is worth (which is not a lot!), the Met Office 3-Month Outlook is forecasting that both above and below average temperatures are equally likely.

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/5/7/A3_plots-temp-OND.pdf

 

They have this to say about Arctic ice:-

Arctic sea ice has just reached its annual minimum extent, which is still well below the climatological average but not as low as last year’s record minimum. Whilst this might play some part in determining the weather over the northern hemisphere during winter, as yet there is no clear predictive association.

 

In other, having tried to blame last year’s cold winter on “melting Arctic ice”, they are now confused whether this winter will be warm, because less ice has melted this summer, or cold, because ice extent is still below “normal”. But, either way, they will no doubt tell us after the event!

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7 Comments
  1. October 3, 2013 9:56 am

    Reblogged this on CraigM350.

  2. Joseph Bastardi permalink
    October 3, 2013 10:08 am

    Isnt this like saying a team that has never won a game could get a tie. While its true the winters are colder, this year is near average. Lets not make a bigger deal out of this than it is. While it may be a sign of things to come ( I do think that) by itself, a near normal year for temps is nothing to write home about

  3. Joseph Bastardi permalink
    October 3, 2013 10:10 am

    By the way, my point is that if we are pursuing the truth, we should not adopt the same kind of anything that happens proves our point strategy of those on the other side who purposely deceive by taking anything that happens and says, see I told you. We should be above that. Let our standard be the facts. Fact is, the year is close to average and only because its been so warm is that cooler

    • October 3, 2013 10:32 am

      Yes, that’s the point, Joe.

      We seem to be back to what where we were 30 years ago.

  4. October 3, 2013 10:13 am

    I’m not a bet-hedger
    I’m a bet-hedge’rs son
    And I’m only hedging bets
    Til the bet-hedger comes

    • Joseph Bastardi permalink
      October 3, 2013 11:17 am

      I dont know if you are pointing that remark at me, but I have not hedged at all, I said 5 years ago and keep saying it on national tv outlets that by 2030, our temps as measured via satellite, which did not start till 1978, RETURN TO THAT. There is no hedging, and I drew alot of fire for that, though the recent downturn the last 4 years has silenced those attacks for now. My point is that simply stopping someone from scoring a touchdown is not winning the game, when it is plainly warmer than it was when the warm cycle started. The question is does the return to normal signal that the ideas on the cyclical nature of this are correct, or is it just a “pause” and it goes back to getting warmer again. In the pursuit of truth, the value of yesterday is it forms the foundation for today, and the reach for tomorrow, but tomorrow is always in doubt. Which is a basic difference between guys like me and the propaganda agenda driven merchants, who seem to think they KNOW tomorrow

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