England On Course For 2nd Coldest Year Since 1996
By Paul Homewood
Based on the Central England Temperature index, England is still on course for the second coldest year since at least 1996. September was 0.1C warmer than the 1961-90 average, but, more significantly, 0.3C colder than the 1981-2010 mean.
The YTD is now 0.24C colder than 1961-90, and if this anomaly remains the same, the year would finish at 9.24C.
It is highly unlikely the year will finish as cold as 2010, which ended at 8.83C, but the next coldest year since 1996 was last year at 9.70C.
For this year to end up warmer than 2012, the last three months of the year would have to be some two degrees warmer than normal.
It is also still quite possible that, with even a slightly colder end to the year than usual, this year could end up as the second coldest since 1986.
Meanwhile, this year continues the trend towards colder than average years, which has been prevalent during the last 5 years.
For what it is worth (which is not a lot!), the Met Office 3-Month Outlook is forecasting that both above and below average temperatures are equally likely.
They have this to say about Arctic ice:-
Arctic sea ice has just reached its annual minimum extent, which is still well below the climatological average but not as low as last year’s record minimum. Whilst this might play some part in determining the weather over the northern hemisphere during winter, as yet there is no clear predictive association.
In other, having tried to blame last year’s cold winter on “melting Arctic ice”, they are now confused whether this winter will be warm, because less ice has melted this summer, or cold, because ice extent is still below “normal”. But, either way, they will no doubt tell us after the event!