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Jennifer Francis Admits She Does Not Know About SREX

October 13, 2013

By Paul Homewood


In her interview with GWPF on extreme weather, Dr Jennifer Francis was asked by Dr David Whitehouse to comment on the IPCC’s SREX report.

The SREX Report on extreme weather, published in 2011, concluded:


Projected changes in climate extremes under different emissions scenarios generally do not strongly diverge in the coming two to three decades, but these signals are relatively small compared to natural climate variability over this time frame. Even the sign of projected changes in some climate extremes over this time frame is uncertain.


And, as Roger Pielke Jr pointed out, the Report also states:


There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change.


This, of course, was all very much at odds with Francis’ view, as she had spent most of the interview arguing that extreme weather was rapidly becoming more extreme and more frequent. So, you would have expected her to offer some cogent thoughts when Whitehouse asked her, at about 8 minutes in:


The SREX Report seemed to conclude that, apart from warmer days and nights, there was no significant trend in heatwaves, tornadoes, hurricanes – is that still the case?”


And Francis’ reply?


I don’t know enough about what that report said on those topics to be able to respond


After much umming and ahhing, she finally managed to assure us that her models told her differently. So that’s alright then!


I frankly find it astonishing that a supposed expert on extreme weather is not familiar with the work that has gone into the SREX, even if only to tell us where she differs.

But, as she appears to show no appreciation of the cyclical effects of the AMO on hurricanes and droughts, or climatic events prior to 1980,  I suppose I should not really be surprised.

  1. October 13, 2013 3:32 pm

    They just keep going on and on
    Tom Saunders, senior meteorologist at the Sky News Australia Weather Channel, says: “Through this summer we are expecting another hot one for Australia, above average temperatures throughout the country with at least one or two heatwaves through the southern states.” We are expecting 11 to 14 tropical cyclones off our northern coastline, and we are expecting an above average number of severe thunderstorms for eastern and southern parts of Australia…”Our seas have been warming up over the past few decades and even in the past 12 months the sea surface temps off the west coast and south coast of Australia have been the highest on record,” says Mr Saunders.

  2. October 13, 2013 6:26 pm

    Of course, if there is a discrepancy between models and actual weather, it MUST be the actual weather which is wrong!

    I think there is a tendency for some scientists to be come so enamoured of their models, that they lose sight of reality.

  3. Otter permalink
    October 13, 2013 11:15 pm

    Pity, that. Most people know all about SREX fairly early on.

  4. Scott Scarborough permalink
    October 14, 2013 3:00 am

    I believe the IPCC SREX report came out March 28th 2012, not in 2011.

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