To Snow Or Not To Snow?
By Paul Homewood
On 12th October, the Daily Express stuck its head above the parapet and forecast “The worst winter in decades”, including heavy snow for November.
The forecast originated, as usual, from two private weather agencies, Exacta Weather and Vantage Weather Services.
Forecasters last night warned the entire country is set for a horror freeze which will bring brutal winds and fierce blizzards.
Temperatures have already started to plunge as a swathe of cold air from the Arctic has swept across the UK in the past few days.
The first long-range forecasts warn of "recordbreaking snowfall" next month.
Heavy wintry showers are expected to cause widespread chaos with below-average temperatures possibly lingering until February.
Long-range forecasters blamed the position of a fast-flowing band of air known as the jet stream near to Britain and high pressure for the extreme conditions. Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said: ‘We are looking at a potentially paralysing winter, the worst for decades, which could at times grind the nation to a halt.
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said it was likely to be the worst winter for more than 100 years.
He said: ‘A horror winter scenario is likely to bring another big freeze with copious snow for many parts.
‘There is also a high risk that we will experience a scenario similar to December 2010 or much worse at times, especially in January.
‘This is likely to produce major disruption to public transport and school closures on a prolific scale."
He went on: ‘The cold theme from the latter part of October is likely to continue into November – and for the vast majority of the month.
‘November could turn out to be a record-breaking month. There is the potential for some significant falls of snow. The northern half is likely to experience the worst conditions.
“It is also likely the southern half will experience a number of major snow events throughout November."
Well, so far, the end of October is just wet and windy, with similar conditions forecast into November, according to the Met Office.
We’ll have to sit back and see who is right! (In the meantime, though, I’ve bought a new snow shovel and a tub of grit!)
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Here we go again:
“Persistent cold snaps with some very heavy snowfall are likely, and I would not be surprised if some records are not broken this year.”
I have heard that phrase before and I am not entirely certain what it means.
If he “would NOT be surprised if some records are NOT broken”, then literally he is saying that he would be surprised if some records were broken, but I am sure that is not what he meant.
I don’t mind snow, but I don’t like the sound of strong winds AND snow.
Reblogged this on Johnsono ne'Blog'as.
The MetO outlook beyond 5 days is more changeable than the wind and about as reliable as PWS forecasts! Having said that no sign of this record cold. As for Madden the Jan period (despite being obvious – like predicting a heatwave in July) may prove yet prove true although cry wolf does come to mind. Last wintr was cold but the min lows only got to ~4 due to cloud. I expect this Jan to beat that. I really cannot see much happening until then but the weather makes monkeys of us all.
* ~ -4C (and yes beating that is not exactly hard in January).
None of them really know, but the Met Office is stupider for trying to predict 6 weeks ahead. They are so visible when they get it wrong. No-one knows the other guys, they’ve nothing to lose.
“ (In the meantime, though, I’ve bought a new snow shovel and a tub of grit!)”
You’ve now jinxed the entire weather prediction for the next 5 months. Temperatures likely won’t go below freezing and there will be no snow. David Viner will be pleased.
“To Snow Or Not To Snow?”
Nobody knows and so far even “Smokin Joe” is being cryptic:-
http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-october-26-2013
My record for where I live shows 11.4, 16.3 and 14.9 metres of snowfall in the past three winters. I’m predicting that this winter will be cold and we will see between 11 and 16 metres of snow.
On that note, I’m off to the garage to finish preparing the shutters to fit over our ground floor windows. Toodle pip!
Met Office reckon November will be warm and wet, I think?
SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE:
There is a strong signal in the forecast for above-average November-mean temperatures.
For November-December-January above-average temperatures are considered more likely than below, though this signal is likely strongly influenced by the expected mild November.
Overall the probability that the UK-mean temperature for November-December-January will be in the warmest of our five categories is close to 30% and the probability that it will fall into the coldest category is approximately 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories
is 20%)
Click to access A3_plots-temp-NDJ.pdf
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION:
Indications are that precipitation in November is more likely to be above average than below average.
For November-December-January as a whole the signal for precipitation is similar to climatology, with only a slightly higher probability of above-average than below-average rainfall.
The probability that UK precipitation for November-December-January will fall into the driest of our five categories is close to 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is approximately 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%
Click to access A3_plots-precip-NDJ.pdf
Is the Global temperature record correct? Looking at the CET you would expect to see the large increase in global temperatures showing to some degree but it hasn’t.
Check this graph of temperature vs monitoring stations.
http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/nvst.html
Perhaps this can explain the standstill. The cull takes out stations in the colder regions so the global temperature record shows a rise. After the cull the situation is relatively stable and the stations are reflecting the true global temperature which is not rising. This would explain why we had a massive step in the global temperature record and the current pause.
It would also explain why the increase in storms etc. that might be expected from a large rise in global temperatures never happened. The Earth just did not warm as per the records, the warming is artificial, a product of poor science.
All the news papers are headlining up to 100 days of snow, worst winter for 60 to100 years, yet the met office make no mention of even a flake of snow, so who’s telling the truth? There is one thing for sure Christmas sales on the high street are good, people are getting their Christmas goodies before the snow turns up, what a cleaver way to increase sale in a stagnant market, there’s going to be a lot of egg on some peoples faces LoL