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Met Forecast Warm November

November 1, 2013
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By Paul Homewood

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/q/A3_plots-temp-NDJ.pdf

 

The latest 3-month outlook has been released by the Met Office, but of particular interest is the comment about Arctic sea ice:

 

Across a large part of the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain largely above average, whilst further north Arctic sea ice has recently reached its annual minimum extent. Whilst well below the climatological average, this minimum extent was not as low as 2012’s record minimum. The greatest deficit relative to average appears to be over the northern Barents and Kara Seas. Whilst this may play some part in determining late autumn and early wintertime conditions over northern Europe, the predictive associations are not yet entirely clear.

  

TRANSLATION – They have no idea what effects, if any, low levels, or for that matter high levels, of Arctic sea ice have on our weather.

 

Remember this the next time when some “expert” blames cold winters, warm winters, storms, or anything else that happens on “melting Arctic ice”.

6 Comments
  1. Keitho permalink
    November 1, 2013 12:06 pm

    One of the truly irritating things about the Arctic ice that is never commented on is that it is making me wish my life away. I can’t wait to see what next year brings.

  2. November 1, 2013 12:22 pm

    Extrapolating from the present pattern UK and western Europe could be a little milder in November but cold is accumulating elsewhere in the northern hemisphere rather earlier than in past years.

    The jets have been bringing milder westerly air across us of late and interestingly we are near solar maximum of cycle 24 so maybe that is a solar induced amelioration of the background trend away from global warming for our particular part of the world.

    I wouldn’t wish to extrapolate beyond November though.

  3. November 1, 2013 1:29 pm

    as I just posted on your thread about Russian Scientists , on FB Piers Corbyn just said “WASN’T OCTOBER EXCITING? WAIT TILL U SEE NOVEMBER – BI,Eu,USA!” (BI= British Isles ) . Is he predicting cold ? (you have to pay to find out more detail)

  4. November 1, 2013 2:25 pm

    Call me cynical, but when the MO forecast above average temperatures, I expect below average temperatures.

  5. November 1, 2013 4:35 pm

    It takes real skill to be wrong 97% of the time. That only took $300 billion and 20 years to achieve. Imagine if they spent $10 trillion over the next decade using the same failed theories. Then they could be wrong 99.9% of the time.

    Personally, I would rather rely on the Farmers Almanac 1952 edition. It is wrong too but it doesn’t cost nearly as much. Otherwise I predict, for no cost at all, that it will be more or less cold in winter, hot in summer, wet in spring, and dry in fall for the next hundred years.

  6. Brian H permalink
    November 1, 2013 8:25 pm

    Funny, I could swear I just read prognostications of the official sort that the winter was going to be exceptionally cold. Now, where did I stuff that paper ….?

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