Adapting To Climate Change In Yorkshire – Part I

By Paul Homewood

 

http://www.yourclimate.org/pages/regional-adaptation-study

 

In 2009, the Yorkshire and Humber Regional Adaptation Study was published, all about adapting to, (you’ve guessed it), “Climate Change”. The study was commissioned and funded by a variety of taxpayer-funded organisations, including the now defunct Regional Assembly, the Regional Development Agency and the Environment Agency, and was one of several prepared for each region of the country.

The study listed several changes that we needed to prepare for.

 

 

 

So let’s see whether any of these claims are backed up by recent trends. In Part I, we’ll be looking at temperatures.

 

CLAIM 1 – Annual average daily temperatures rising by almost 2C by 2050

 

Figure 1 shows the annual mean temperatures for N & NE England (covering Yorkshire, Humberside, Durham and Northumberland), using data from the Met Office.

 

 

Figure 1

 

Temperature trends have been falling since 2006, with the 5-year average now lower than it was in 2000. Two of the last three years were the coldest since 1996, while this year is also running colder than 2012.

The likely outturn for this year is 8.7C, which would bring the 5-year average down to below 9C, a figure not seen since 1997.

The conclusion is quite clear – the evidence of the last 16 years does not support the projected increase of 2C in the next three decades or so.

 

CLAIM 2 – Extreme hot temperatures will increase with summer temperatures more regularly reaching 34C

 

Figure 2 shows the summer maximum temperatures for N & NE England.

 

Figure 2

 

After the warm summers of 2003 and 2006, the long term trend has returned to previous levels, despite the warm summer this year.

Indeed the 5-year average, currently standing at 19.3C, is exactly the same as the average during the 1990’s.

The hottest summer remains 1976, when the maximum daily temperatures averaged 21.4C, more than a degree higher than this year. In 1976, there were 24 days >25C, compared to just 10 days this year.

There is no evidence, therefore, of an increase in summer temperatures generally, but what about extremely hot days?

Figure 3 plots the days when maximum temperatures reached 30C in Bradford, which is fairly central and representative of Yorkshire geographically. Because of its slightly higher altitude, Bradford is about half a degree cooler than the region as a whole.

 

 

 

Figure 3

 

The all time record of 32.2C was set on 3rd August 1990, beating the 32.1C logged the day before. The highest temperature set since was 29.9C in 2003.

(To extend the picture, Sheffield lies at the southernmost part of the Yorkshire region, and therefore tends to be amongst the hottest areas. The record temperature there was 34.3C, set in 1990, the only time 34C has been reached. The highest temperature since was 31.4C in 2003).

There is clearly no evidence of the number of extremely hot days increasing in recent years, or of them becoming hotter. As for the claim of “more days reaching 34C”, this has no basis in reality.

 

Part II will look at rainfall, etc.

 

References

1) Regional data is from the Met Office

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets

 

2) Daily data is sourced from csv files sent to me by the Met Office.

 

UPDATE

The Full Report shows that all these projections are against a baseline of 1960-90. Current annual temperature trends are running at about half a degree higher than then.

Therefore we are looking at a rise of 1.5C by 2050, rather than the full 2C.

I would assume they are not concerned about the half a degree rise so far, and would imagine they would be far more concerned if temperatures sunk back again by that much!