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More Junk Science From Paul Beckwith

December 4, 2013
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

image

http://www.sierraclub.ca/en/EF-5

 

Not content with making Mickey Mouse predictions about the Arctic ice disappearing this year, expert climate scientist, Paul Beckwith has been explaining that:

 

The Oklahoma tornado is just another example of the global ‘weirding‘ that we are seeing. Our reference frame is the “old climate”, in which the equator-polar temperature gradients are smaller, but the local frontal temperature gradients are larger. In our “new climate” (in which there is much less sea ice in the Arctic) this type of tornado will be much more probable — at least while we abruptly transition from the “old” to the “new” and unfamiliar climate

 

Apparently, fact checking is no longer a prerequisite for junk climate scientists, so perhaps I might offer to fill in a few of the gaps for him.

 

1) Since 1950, there have been 59 EF-5 tornadoes in the States, effectively an average of one a year. Seven of these have hit Oklahoma.

 

usf5tors

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/05/22/oklahoma-tornado/

 

2) The year with most EF-5’s was 1974, when there was seven. These most violent of tornadoes were much more common up to 1980, when the planet was going through a cooling phase.

 

image_thumb43

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/05/22/oklahoma-tornado/

 

3) There has also been a marked decline in the number of EF-3+ tornadoes since the 1970’s.

 

EF3-EF5 Tornado Counts

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends

 

4) And you don’t have to take my word for it. The tornado experts at NOAA – ( yes the ones who actually know what they are talking about) – have this to say:

 

Does global warming" cause tornadoes? No. Thunderstorms do. The harder question may be, "How will climate change influence tornado occurrence?" The best answer is: We don’t know. According to the National Science and Technology Council’s Scientific Assessment on Climate Change, "Trends in other extreme weather events that occur at small spatial scales–such as tornadoes, hail, lightning, and dust storms–cannot be determined at the present time due to insufficient evidence." This is because tornadoes are short-fused weather, on the time scale of seconds and minutes, and a space scale of fractions of a mile across. In contrast, climate trends take many years, decades, or millennia, spanning vast areas of the globe. The numerous unknowns dwell in the vast gap between those time and space scales. Climate models cannot resolve tornadoes or individual thunderstorms. They can indicate broad-scale shifts in three of the four favorable ingredients for severe thunderstorms (moisture, instability and wind shear), but as any severe weather forecaster can attest, having some favorable factors in place doesn’t guarantee tornadoes. Our physical understanding indicates mixed signals–some ingredients may increase (instability), while others may decrease (shear), in a warmer world. The other key ingredient (storm-scale lift), and to varying extents moisture, instability and shear, depend mostly on day-to-day patterns, and often, even minute-to-minute local weather. Finally, tornado recordkeeping itself also has been prone to many errors and uncertainties, doesn’t exist for most of the world, and even in the U.S., only covers several decades in detailed form.

 

Weirding? The only weird thing is that anyone pays the slightest attention to junk scientists like Beckwith.

6 Comments
  1. A C Osborn permalink
    December 4, 2013 10:59 am

    Don’t confuse the poor lad with Facts that do not fit in to his worldview.
    He might get a dose of reality and then what would he do for a job?

  2. philjourdan permalink
    December 4, 2013 12:17 pm

    Really, when you double down on a stupid prediction during the falsification of that prediction, can anyone take you seriously? Even a blind moron can see that the relationship does not exist. Yet he still is batting a thousand on being wrong.

  3. Fred from Canuckistan permalink
    December 4, 2013 10:46 pm

    Beckwith is to climate science what Mickey D’s is to gourmet cuisine.

    Amazing this university still employs him as his academic forecasts are so useless and deceptive.

  4. Nathaniel Chase permalink
    January 22, 2015 9:02 am

    The CO2/water vapour initial warming allowed time to organise resistance to data. Things are speeding up a lot now, as methane begins venting globally.

  5. Nathaniel Chase permalink
    February 25, 2015 6:58 pm

    The more confused people are as the emergency gets underway, the harder it will be to try to organise communities to protect themselves. You need to get this crap off the internet, now.

  6. simple-touriste permalink
    July 1, 2016 12:10 am

    “The Oklahoma tornado is just another example of the global ‘weirding‘ that we are seeing”

    I was pretty sure “weirding” was sarcasm and mocking of warming scares, until I read the rest.

    Impressive. These guys have no bounds.

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