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Global Temperatures Report – Nov 13

December 24, 2013

By Paul Homewood

 

 

  RSS UAH HADCRUT4 GISS
Nov 2013 0.13 0.19 0.59 0.77
Change from last month -0.08 -0.11 0.11 0.16
12 month running average 0.21 0.24 0.47 0.59
Average 2003-12 0.24 0.19 0.48 0.58

 

 

A divergence this month between satellites (down) and surface (up), that has led to a bit of discussion. I don’t get too exercised by any of this, as on a month to month basis this sort of variability is quite common. Usually, the different datasets come back into line after a month or two.

There has, however, been a lot of hot air about it being the “hottest November on record”, so we need to get a few facts straight.

 

1) Leaving aside the satellite sets, where on RSS this November is the 3rd coldest of the century, it is not even the hottest November on HADCRUT.

2) There are 12 months in every year, so over a 12-year period, the odds of getting a “hottest month” is once a year.

3) Taking all months of the year, the HADCRUT anomaly for this month only ranks as the 17th highest since 2001.

 

Jan 07 0.83
Dec 06 0.69
March 02 0.69
Feb 02 0.69
Apr 10 0.68
March 10 0.67
Jan 02 0.66
Nov 05 0.62
Oct 03 0.61
July 10 0.61
Nov 01 0.60
Oct 05 0.60
Apr 05 0.60
Feb 04 0.60
Nov 04 0.59
Dec 03 0.59
Nov 13 0.59

 

4) And before anybody says all the other months were in El Nino years, the four months highlighted in red were all during the ENSO neutral period between April 2001 and March 2002.

 

It really does show just how desperate NOAA and others are to keep a semblance of alarmism alive, when they make such claims.

 

Comparison with 2001/2

As ESRL point out, the period since September 2012 has been “mostly ENSO neutral”. The most recent neutral period of similar length was April 2001 to March 2002.

The Multivariate ENSO index is pretty close for the two periods, averaging –0.08 since Oct 2012, and –0.04 for the 2001/2 period. To put these numbers into perspective, El Nino conditions are normally indicated when the index goes above 0.5, whilst monthly values can go above 2.0.

So, we should be able to meaningfully compare global temperatures between the two periods of time. There is a time lag between ENSO conditions changing, and their effect on global temperatures. Kevin Trenberth suggests a lag of about 3 months, although others think it could be up to 6 months.

Assuming Trenberth is right, therefore, we can compare temperatures for July 2001 – June 2002, with those since Dec 2012. Let’s look at HADCRUT4 then:

 

  HADCRUT4
Anomaly C
July 2001 – June 2002 0.51
Dec 2012 – Nov 2013 0.47

 

Using a 6-month lag, we get similar results. The 2001-2 period still works out at 0.51C, while taking current temperatures since March 2013 gives 0.50C.

 

The conclusion is clear – with no change in ENSO conditions, current temperatures are level with, or even slightly below, those of 11 years ago.

 

Graphs

Finally let’s look at the graphs.

 

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http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt

http://data.remss.com/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/diagnostics.html

9 Comments
  1. lolwot permalink
    December 24, 2013 4:11 pm

    But what about the solar cycle. 2002 was at a much higher cycle max than now. Whichever way you look at it the climate conditions now are near maximum. UAH shows the last 4 years to be the warmest on record.

    • December 24, 2013 4:34 pm

      I thought all the heat was hiding at the bottom of the ocean!

      And BTW there have been 8 years warmer than either 2011 or 2012 on UAH.

  2. Brian H permalink
    December 25, 2013 7:33 am

    Steady as she goes …
    Fear of warming is so deeply irrational it’s hard to take seriously. It has NEVER harmed mankind, the biosphere, or Earth.

  3. December 25, 2013 11:11 am

    Reblogged this on Tallbloke's Talkshop and commented:
    Paul Homewood provides a temperature roundup.

  4. David permalink
    December 27, 2013 4:56 am

    “The Multivariate ENSO index is pretty close for the two periods, averaging –0.08 since Oct 2012, and –0.04 for the 2001/2 period.”

    Can you confirm what data set you used for this please?

    Using the bimonthly MEI values (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html) I can replicate -0.04 for the period Mar/Apr 2001 to Feb/Mar 2002.

    Since Oct 2012 there are two possible values, depending on whether you start with Sep/Oct or Oct/Nov. Starting Sep/Oct 2012, the average to present is -0.11; starting Oct/Nov 2012 to present it is -0.12.

    Therefore the 2012/13 MEI bimonthly index is -0.07 to -0.08 cooler than it was during the 2001/2 period. This difference in temperature could conceivably account for the slightly lower HadCRUT4 temperatures seen this past 12 months, relative to the 2001/2 period.

    • December 27, 2013 11:27 am

      I start in Aug/Sep 2012, when the index dipped below 0.5.

      The tiny differences in ENSO and indeed temperature are no doubt dwarfed by all the other factors affecting climate.

      What is interesting is that, with ENSO stubbornly neutral, we are now into the longest neutral period since the early 1980’s.

      • David permalink
        December 28, 2013 8:39 am

        Thanks Paul.

        It’s just that in the text you say MEI averaged “–0.08 since Oct 2012”. As mentioned above, since October 2012, MEI was either -0.11 or -0.12, depending on whether you start with Sept/Oct or Oct/Nov.

        Using NOAA’s 3-month-averaged ENSO data (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml), I make the current run 19 consecutive 3-month-averaged periods of ENSO neutral conditions between MAM 2012 and SON 2013, with an average value of -0.13.

        According to that data, there were 26 consecutive 3-month-averaged periods of ENSO neutral conditions from JJA 1992 to JAS 1994, though with a much higher average value (0.22).

      • December 28, 2013 10:56 am

        My boob!

        Thanks Paul

  5. January 19, 2014 1:37 pm

    I am certainly no expert or academic, so please don’t condemn my thoughts; I am merely a very concerned citizen of this planet, conflicting advice and info everywhere, what is going on? Why make up doom & gloom about global warming if it is not as bad as it is made out to be? What is the point of speculation and arguing when no-one really knows what is happening to our planet’s environment. I’m confused and frankly, a little worried for the future that our kids will inherit.

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