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Will Global Warming Lead To Colder Winters?

January 11, 2014
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood


In a YouTube video Wednesday, White House Science Adviser Dr. John Holdren said "don't believe" claims that extreme cold disproves global warming.


There have been various attempts to link the recent cold weather in the US to global warming. For instance, the White House Science Advisor, John Holdren, has claimed that “I believe the odds are that we can expect as a result of global warming to see more of this pattern of extreme cold in the mid-latitudes and some extreme warm in the far north.


There are various studies that find absolutely no evidence of what Holdren is claiming, for instance here and here. But let’s just look at what actual climate record says.

NOAA maintain a "Climate Extremes Index”, of which one of the components is temperature. There is an index for daily maximum temperatures (i.e. daytime) and one for minimums, or night time. They define these indices as :

  • The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much above normal.
  • The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with minimum temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States with minimum temperatures much above normal.

    In other words, for each component, they track areas both well above and well below normal. Importantly, this prevents areas of warm and cold areas cancelling each other out, which a simple temperature graph would do.

    Therefore, you would have expected, if Holdren was right, to see an increase in the percentage of the country well below normal. (Well above, or below, is defined as falling into the 10th percentile at either end, using data back to 1910).

    Of course, you see nothing of the sort. For both daytime highs and night time lows, extreme cold has been much rarer in recent decades, notwithstanding this current winter.





    More junk science from John Holdren. As Roy Spencer succinctly puts it “How did this man ever attain such a lofty position, other than his politics?”

    1. January 11, 2014 5:21 pm

      Depends presumably to 85%+ on the question how the oceans behave. Here for example an image from Newsweek, April 1976, showing the Northern Hemisphere regions affected by CLIMATE CHANGE during the time of global cooling between 1940 and 1975: , with the original article is HERE:

    2. John F. Hultquist permalink
      January 11, 2014 5:39 pm

      The views of the current PresUSA and the views of John Holdren were well know prior to the elections of 2008 & 2012, and the latter serves at the direction of the former. Think of it like buying a Dodge truck – it comes with an image of a male sheep built into the front grille, and it goes where the driver points it. Holdren was not well known to voters but that would not have made any difference as he wasn’t on the ballot. Some voters have begun to have differences with their elective choice but enough to keep B. O. in office likely would still have voted as they did in 2012 as the opposition has trouble finding charismatic/strong contenders. That is especially true when one is running against “the next messiah.”

    3. Brian H permalink
      January 11, 2014 9:31 pm

      Gotta watch them weasel words. America will come to rue having ever heard of “fundamental transformation”.

    4. GregO permalink
      January 12, 2014 4:54 am

      I’m not sure readers here, whom I assume are mostly from the British Isles, realize this man’s background. He was a close colleague of Paul and Ann Erlich of The Population Bomb fame. As you recall, predictions made in this book were thankfully, wildly inaccurate.

      Holdren recommended poisoning the public drinking water to render humans sterile to combat overpopulation, an imaginary problem; a mental construct.

      He yet, to my knowledge, recanted. Interestingly, one concern he had was insuring it would not harm livestock and wildlife.

      The man is a first class nutter. A kook. Obama’s science czar; now explaining polar vortices.

      Seek independent verification of every claim this man makes. I do not believe anything he says; he’s either insane, or some kind of charlatan.

      • GregO permalink
        January 12, 2014 4:58 am

        Correction to my typing: “He has not yet, to my knowledge, recanted.”

        Sorry, got a phone call inviting me to Mardi Gras in New Orleans while typing!
        Of course I’m going.

    5. Brian H permalink
      January 13, 2014 9:13 am

      No, he’s the real deal, a true Leftist.

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