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Another Met Office Fail

January 28, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

We looked yesterday at the first decadal forecast of global temperatures, published by the Met Office in 2007. That forecast the global temperatures would have risen by 0.30C from 2004 levels by now, compared to the tiny 0.04C rise that we have actually seen.

 

Even as recently as 2010, however, they were still predicting much higher temperatures, than have occurred.

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/decadal-prediction

 

The actual numbers are not provided, but, eyeballing, temperatures for this year were expected to be around 0.60C.

Taking HADCRUT4 numbers, and calculating on the baseline of 1971-2000, we get actual temperature anomalies of:

 

   
2009 0.39C
2013 0.38C

 

There is no indication that this year will come out any warmer than last.

So, even just forecasting four years in advance, it seems that the Met Office attempt was a dismal failure.

One Comment
  1. Joe Public permalink
    January 28, 2014 8:26 pm

    “So, even just forecasting four years in advance, it seems that the Met Office attempt was a dismal failure.”

    As your previous posts have shown, forecasting just four months in advance seems to stretch the Met Office’s credibility.

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