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Temperature Standstill Forecast To Continue In 2014

January 28, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t QV

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/2013-global-forecast

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/global-temperature-2014

 

 

Spot the difference!

 

The Met Office forecast for the global temperature this year is exactly the same as they forecast last year for 2013. They hide, of course, behind a ludicrously wide error range, and their central estimate of 0.57C last year was way too high, with the actual number coming in at 0.49C.

 

(I have likened this to forecasting that Man U’s score would be between a 6-0 win and a 3-0 loss – but given their current form, I would be tempted to reverse these!)

 

Nevertheless, if their forecast is to be believed, it would seem that global warming has been delayed for one more year.

 

Readers’ Poll

It’s time then for readers to see if they can do better than the Met Office. I’m going for 0.48C

 

 

10 Comments
  1. January 28, 2014 5:29 pm

    “They hide, of course, behind a ludicrously wide error range, and their central estimate of 0.57C last year was way too high, with the actual number coming in at 0.49C.”

    The estimate for 2013 based on temps. to end October, of 0.39c to 0.59c is even more ludicrous.
    True, it’s only an error range of +/- 0.1c in the annual figure, but that’s a range of about -0.05c to +1.15c in the monthly figures for November/December.

  2. A C Osborn permalink
    January 28, 2014 6:01 pm

    There is no point in trying to guess what they will “Massage” the values to be, it will be whatever they think they can get away with.
    None of the last 10 years has been the real data, it has been massively increased from the Raw data.
    So I will not bother thanks.

  3. gregole permalink
    January 29, 2014 12:44 am

    I used a sophisticated computer system (my mouse) and used pure impulse for my choice. Funny if I end up beating the Met!

    (Oh, I’m a “chilly willy” voter – I am guessing there is a good chance it is getting cooler/colder.)

  4. Brian H permalink
    January 30, 2014 12:20 am

    On average, the best guess is always that tomorrow will be just like today.

  5. David permalink
    January 30, 2014 2:04 pm

    I’m down for 0.51-0.54.

    Good luck all.

  6. January 31, 2014 5:37 am

    The temp will be same for the next 1000y as it was last year’s temp.

    ”predicting” that: it will be warmer by 0,48C – that ”0,48” represent that one can monitor the WHOLE planet’s temp with precision to one hundredth of a degree… it would need trillions of thermometers to monitor for every 15 minutes in 24h, for every day… it’s all guess work

  7. January 31, 2014 7:41 pm

    Slightly off topic but Prince Charles has the nerve to call climate sceptics “headless chickens”!

    “Charles said it was “baffling” that people’s “blind trust in science and technology” did not extent to climate science.”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25984246

    • January 31, 2014 7:44 pm

      I wonder where talking to flowers fits into his concept of “science”!

      • January 31, 2014 7:54 pm

        Doesn’t he believe in Homeopathy?

        Maybe that’s why he believes a small amount of CO2 can influence the climate?

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