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Loading The Dice

February 27, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

 

 

A phrase we keep hearing over and over again, is that we are “loading the dice”. The idiot Miliband is the latest to jump on the bandwagon

"If you keep throwing the dice and you keep getting sixes then the dice are loaded. Something is going on.”

 

(BTW – he has referred to 2012 as the “second wettest winter on record”. In the UK, the winter of 2012/13 was actually the 28th wettest since 1910. (2011/12 was even drier). To think we’re likely to have this cretin running the country next year!)

 

It is easy, of course, to pick one month or one year and say how wet it has been. Just as it is easy for me to find other wetter episodes. But if there is any truth in “loading the dice”, we should see two things:-

 

1) An increasing trend in the number of wet winters.

2) Extremely wet months becoming more common and more intense.

 

1) So, let’s test the first one.

The wettest months in the UK, on average, fall between October and March, so it is logical to look at these “six winter months” to see if there are any trends.

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/epping-forest-youth-hostel-essex#?tab=climateGraphs

 

As England has been at the centre of most flooding problems this winter, let’s see what the trends have been there. Figure 1 is based on the Met Office data up to March 2013.

The winter of 2000/01 stands out. But since then, there is no evidence of either wet winters becoming more common, or of them becoming wetter. There are several years throughout the record with comparable, or more, precipitation, as anything seen in recent years.

For instance, the winter of 2012/13 was the wettest since 2000/01, but there have been 12 other years since 1910 that were wetter.

Furthermore, the 10-Year running average is pretty much flat, with no sign of an increasing trend, and currently lower than it was for most of the time prior to 1950. The wettest period of the lot was between 1910 and 1920.

 

 

image

Figure 1

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets

 

2) What about extremely wet months then?

Again, taking the months between October & March, we can plot the months that had more than 120mm. (There are 67 of these).

Figure 2 uses data up to December 2013, and shows that the two wettest months were December 1914 and November 1929.

There appears to be a reduction in frequency during the relatively dry period in the 1960’s and 70’s, but, compared with the rest of the record, the last decade has had fewer months than average. From 2004 to 2013, there have been just five such months, against an average of 6.4.

There is also no increase in intensity. Since 2000, there has been just one month with more than 150mm, out of a total of 19 since 1910.

 

 

image

Figure 2

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Rainfall/date/England.txt

 

Summary

The evidence shows quite clearly that winters are not getting wetter, nor that extremely wet months are becoming more common or intense.

Unfortunately, politicians, with their own agenda, will continue to spout such nonsense. It is a pity, though, that the supposedly independent and objective Met Office cannot find its way to correcting such appalling disregard for the facts, and let the public know the truth.

17 Comments
  1. tom0mason permalink
    February 27, 2014 3:45 pm

    But the Milipede knows –
    Think of the future generations!
    Think of your children, granchildren and their grandchildren!

    Just think of them living with all that hatefilled CO2 atmosphere that you have foisted on them, allowing them to keep warm in winter and cooler in the summer. All that CO2 fueled technology allowing them to have affordable transport, affordable medication, affordable communication and so much more. Think of the money and the power.

    Think of those sea-levels rushing over the land mm by mm! As the summers get hot, or windy, or rainy, and the terrifying spectacle of cold, stormy, snowy, err, no snowy winters that swelter in the frost.

    No, this has to stop!
    Future generations deserve less than us, and it is our duty to give it to them because the planet needs it, and politicians need more wealth and power.
    🙂

  2. February 27, 2014 4:17 pm

    Actually, even with unloaded dice, you can get short-term trends which don’t appear to be random.

  3. David Loshak permalink
    February 27, 2014 4:22 pm

    You write: In the UK, the winter of 2012/13 was actually the 28th wettest since 1910. Your analyses are excellent but how do you that with today’s report on the BBC:
    “The UK has had the wettest winter since national records began in 1910, the Met Office has confirmed. Separate records held for England and Wales also show the heaviest rainfall since they were started in 1766.

    • February 27, 2014 6:19 pm

      David

      I am talking about the winter of 2012/13, which Miliband was referring to, not this winter.

      • Me_Again permalink
        February 27, 2014 7:46 pm

        So have you done the extra work to factor in this winter or are you waiting until the end of march?

      • February 27, 2014 8:44 pm

        Yes! (Second!)

  4. February 27, 2014 4:47 pm

    Reblogged this on Tallbloke's Talkshop and commented:
    .
    Paul Homewood does some smart stats work to confirm what we feared. Ed Miliband is a plank.

  5. Schrodinger's Cat permalink
    February 27, 2014 8:12 pm

    It proves that Millipede is the wettest politician this side of Christmas.

  6. Andy DC permalink
    February 27, 2014 11:30 pm

    These guys spout this drivel without bothering to check the record books. It is a political agenda, plain and simple. We already have cretins running the US, I would hate to see the UK suffer the same fate.

    • Johnbuk permalink
      February 28, 2014 6:57 am

      Too late!

  7. February 28, 2014 4:15 am

    A somewhat different take is in preparation with a few surprises so comparing notes might be interesting.. First look at some numbers point to the south/south east as the most unusual but this also has the strange curve. I’ll be needing some stats advice.

    My interest is in variation from normal, not how wet it was, if you see what I mean.

    An unexpected finding was reminding me of when I have seen water everywhere, was around 1960.

  8. Richard111 permalink
    February 28, 2014 6:41 am

    Since the majority of eligible UK voters fail to use their votes they deserve Miliband. They might then lose some fat from their arses and become a bit more lively.

  9. February 28, 2014 12:10 pm

    Reblogged this on CraigM350.

  10. gregole permalink
    March 1, 2014 6:43 am

    Paul,

    Thanks for taking on the “loaded dice” meme. As an engineer, my simple mind can’t help but think that if there are loaded dice, successive throws will prove a tendency to say, snake eyes, or sixes, or something out of historic, cyclical weather and climate patterns.

    The loaded dice meme just makes me retch! What tendency toward exactly what are they claiming?

    Nothing going on, cataclysmic as it may seem in the existential present, is anything outside of what we can measure, (relatively recent), what we can derive from historic records (less precise, but accurate and going back thru recorded history), and the paleo-record going back millennium (not precise, not highly accurate, but providing a general picture; certainly better than the so-called climate models predicting/forecasting/scenerioing).

    Climate-wise there is nothing going on even particularly interesting. How on earth are these people capable of spinning something out of pure nothing and calling it a Man-Made Crises?

    • Me_Again permalink
      March 1, 2014 11:34 am

      Just suppose that the ‘Pause’ which the press named it, is not a pause. Just suppose that there’s another factor at play here which has reduced the warming to almost non existent for about 20 years or so, meaning that that warming will re-commence in a few years time.

      Just suppose that for some amazing reason CO2 is the cause of this. I find it barely credible with so little evidence that something which is a trace gas in the atmosphere, and essential for life, can be the cause, but just suppose it is.

      Then if our politicians were correct to follow the scientific advice, then it also follows that they should be spending all these green taxes on mitigation.

      There’s my problem you see. Because no one with half a brain could say that building a few thousand windmills which don’t actually save any carbon really at all and pollute the other side of the SAME planet to some God-awful extent, is in any way mitigating the problem.

      There are two ways to immediately mitigate that are well known and not in practice.

      1. The UN sends a message to Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand and anywhere else that does it. The message reads ‘Stop chopping down rain forests. Failure to comply will render a judgement of governmental incompetence on you and liable you to military intervention in order to prevent the removal of carbon sinks from the earth.
      2. The UN says to India and China, you are not allowed to build coal fired power stations which do not have carbon capture as well as the very sensible sulphur traps.
      3. Vessels are chartered by the UN to load 100,000 tonnes of sequestered iron. These vessels then proceed to the North Atlantic, south Atlantic, ditto pacific. Whereupon they begin a race track pattern of steaming whilst slowly discharging the sequestered iron.

      1 and 2 will never happen so it’s down to 3.

      I read somewhere that if just a hundred thousand tonnes of this iron were slowly spread then the resulting algal blooms would capture so much carbon that we’d have an ice age!

      At the very least it would use up massive amounts whilst having the knock on effect of increasing oxygen and providing food for krill which in turn provide food for many other species.

      I’m sure lots of people could add 4, 5 and 6 but the simple fact is that a known method of massive carbon capture is going unused. At the very least some of the Air Passenger Duty should be used to have large scale trials.

      But what is happening? Bugger all but windmill building and making people rich. Bloody typical.

      • Me_Again permalink
        March 1, 2014 11:57 am

        Well I just read again about the sequestration plans but discovered that back in 2009 they tried and had problems. Apparently the algae did bloom but was eaten by a variety of copepods, normal food chain stuff. What I don’t understand is why that is a problem.
        The fact that the biomass did double in size and then get eaten surely does not negate the original idea.

        If this is a non starter and the premise of CO2 inspired global warming is correct, we’re screwed because 1 and 2 will never happen.

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