1929 – The Year The Met Office Tried To Cover Up
By Paul Homewood
Readers of this blog will be well aware that by far the wettest 3-month period on record in the UK was not this winter, as the Met Office would like you to believe, but November 1929 to January 1930.
During those three months. a total of 554mm fell across the UK, compared with 531mm this winter. (October 1929 was also very wet – the October to December total that year was 553mm).
As I also pointed out previously, the wet winter of 1929 followed a remarkably dry first nine months of the year.
I have across this paper by Lily Winchester of the University of Liverpool, written in 1930, entitled “The Abnormal Weather of 1929”, which shows what a remarkable year it was.
After describing the cold start to the year and hot, dry spring and summer, she moves onto wet end to the year.
The similarities to the recent winter are striking.
- Arctic air masses advancing far to the south, in the North Atlantic. (Think – jet stream!)
- An open and clear airway.
- Depressions accompanied by heavy rain and high winds followed one another in quick succession along this open pathway.
- Disastrous floods and storms.
Julia Slingo tells us that global warming is making rainfall more intense, yet, under similar circumstances in 1929, more rain fell.
Although they did not know about the jet stream in those days, Lily Winchester correctly identified how sometimes the “normal pressure conditions of the world” can be modified. And all without mentioning Mann-made warming!
It’s a pity the current crop of grant addicted “scientists” are not prepared to learn from the past.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
I find it interesting that in the midst of the dustbowl, the US winter of 31/32 was the 2nd wettest ever.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/00/pcp/3/02/1895-2014?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000
….and look at how dry the winter preceding 31/32 was – if I glanced at the data correctly, 30/31 was the second driest winter on that record. Dare we call extreme weather, “normal”?
You can not be a scientist – unless you are a “historian” – you must build on the work of others.
I mentioned Robert Heinlein’s wonderful character Lazarus Long in your last post Paul. Lazarus was several centuries when he said –
“A generation which ignores history has no past — and no future.”
A trawl through Heinlein quotes in Wikiquotes throws up some pearls written in the 1950’s which fit the age of Global Warming to a tee.
Reblogged this on CraigM350 and commented:
Very striking indeed.
A great piece Paul, 1929 and climate as well as economic woes, does that sound familiar?
And in response to your line –
It’s a pity the current crop of grant addicted “scientists” are not prepared to learn from the past.
I say, they would learn if they read about the consensus science that built-up around phlogiston. Not so much what it was but how the force of groupthink ensured its long and unworthy propagation.
I only discovered your blogs recently and must congratulate you on putting together a far more rigorous set of counter-proofs than I have found anywhere else. This paper shows the humility of scientists that used to be the norm: i.e. rarely claiming that full understanding was theirs, as opposed to that arrogance of the AGW lobby that claim full understanding of nature while demonstrating little.
In my opinion the root cause of the model failures is the use of the Radiation Forcing Function which is a subjective assessment of the total effect of a mixture of gases on the heat flux or radiant balance of the earth. The values assigned to this are by a form of the “Delphi method”, i.e. are the opinions of a group of experts; they are not calculated by the scientific method. This forcing function value then determines how fast the earth heats or cools and is used to generate doom scenarios.
You’re a bit muddled – nowhere has it been stated that winter 13/14 was the wettest ever 3 month period, it was however the wettest winter, which has 3 months in it – but 3 specific months. This is a simple fact, no matter what the cause.
But if you want to think it’s all a big cover up and conspiracy, then do carry on!
So please tell me where the Met Office has ever mentioned about 1929.
There are actually twelve separate 3-month periods, so over a century you would get on average a “record” every eight years. Hardly anything to write home about. Yet Slingo would like us to believe this year’s wet weather has something to do with “climate change”
‘Mentioned’ 1929? The rainfall statistics are there for anyone to see.
Click to access British_Rainfall_1929.pdf
This was published in 1930. I was thinking of something slightly more recent than that!
BTW – You are a bit behind!
I was highlighting the British Rainfall Publication a month ago!
I’m responding to your assertion that there has been a ‘cover up’ – the data is there for everyone to see. The EWP (England and Wales Precipitation) Record shows that the wettest 3 consecutive months were Oct – Dec 2000, with the wettest 4 consecutive months being Sept to Dec 2000. In this series neither 1929 or 1930 broke any records of any kind.
For the whole of the UK though, Nov 1929 to Jan 1930 (not to mention Oct 1929 to Dec 1929) were much wetter than this winter or Oct – Dec 2000.
1929/30 also holds the record for the wettest 4-month spell.
Of course the data is there to see – that’s where I got it from. But where in any of their press releases, reports or other public statements this year have the Met Office acknowledged any of this?
“…have the Met Office acknowledged any of this?” The fact is that for both the UK and the England/Wales series this was the wettest recorded winter. Yes, 1929/30 was wet but it wasn’t the wettest ever winter!
Nowhere has it been stated that a prolonged spell of wet and stormy weather is unprecedented in the UK
This was the wettest recorded winter.
And precisely what significance does rainfall in Dec-Feb have, that Nov-Jan does not have?
There are twelve combinations of 3-month runs in every year. Over a century, you’d get a record every 8 yrs on average, so nothing remarkable there then.
Nowhere has it been stated that a prolonged spell of wet and stormy weather is unprecedented in the UK
You’d better tell Slingo then.
But all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change
We have records going back to 1766 and we have nothing like this
the UK had seen the “most exceptional period of rainfall in 248 years”.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625
The Met Office official report on the winter wet: “the statistics suggest that this was one of, if not the most, exceptional periods for winter rainfall across England and Wales in at least 248 years.” This is correct. Julia was, I agree incorrect to attribute this to the UK as a whole. But to say there has been a cover up??!!
Click to access Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_SLR_20140211.pdf
Maybe not a cover up but Slinging is creating a misleading impression. But she is may just trying to protect her funding. She knows the only way to maintain or increase this is to convince the government there is some sort of crisis. No crisis, no funding, full stop.
Oops “slinging” = Slingo!
Did anyone else notice:
1929 – ‘The early part of the year was cold, for several weeks England experienced continental winter-temperatures.’
2013 – CET March anomaly -3.0°C; CET Jan-Jun all negative anomalies.
Coincidence or what?
I’ve also got the GISS graph to put up for Oct-Dec 1929, which shows a cold Arctic plunge over the States, just as this winter.
I’m just waiting to slot it into another post
History seems to be chock-a-block with precedents for the unprecedented. It’s all so confusing!