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Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation & Arctic Temperatures

June 9, 2014
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By Paul Homewood 

 

Further to yesterday’s post on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, it is worth looking at how closely temperature cycles in Arctic regions follow the AMO.

 

First, the AMO cycle itself.

 

tsgcos-corr_-86-159-55-182-158-8-10-27

 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/tsanalysis.pl?tstype1=91&tstype2=0&year1=1895&year2=&itypea=0&axistype=0&anom=0&plotstyle=0&climo1=&climo2=&y1=&y2=&y21=&y22=&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=1&mon1=0&mon2=11&Submit=Calculate+Results

 

 

 

And now, the temperature records for some of the sites in, or near to, the Arctic Circle.

 

 

got 

Godthab, Greenland

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=431042500000&dt=1&ds=1

 

aku

Akureyri, Iceland 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=620040630003&dt=1&ds=1

 

 

jan

Jan Mayen Island, Norway 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=634010010003&dt=1&ds=1

 

ost

Ostrov Dikson, Russia

 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=222206740006&dt=1&ds=1

  

The similarities are unmistakeable. The rapid warming beginning around 1920 coincides with switch of the AMO, from its low point in 1920 to its high, around 1940.

Temperatures then proceed to plunge until the 1970’s, when again the AMO returns to its low point.

 

Temperatures, in this part of the Arctic at least, are at similar levels to those of the 1940’s, when the AMO last peaked.

It will likely be another 10 years or so before the AMO begins its decline into negative territory. There is nothing to suggest that, when that happens, temperatures won’t quickly go downhill again.

 

 

Footnote

Temperature records are taking from GHCN V2, which shows the actual data, rather than the current GHCN V3, which includes large, and unjustified, adjustments.

7 Comments
  1. quaesoveritas permalink
    June 9, 2014 12:58 pm

    An approximately 60 year cycle is also visible in the HadCrut4 rolling 50 year trend.

    If the future trend follows the same pattern, it implies a trend over 30 years of around zero by 2030.
    That is why I think temperatures are unlikely to increase significanty over the next 10-20 years.
    Explain that Julia Slingo!

  2. June 9, 2014 1:56 pm

    Since it is so obvious:
    „The rapid warming beginning around 1920 coincides with switch of the AMO, from its low point in 1920 to its high, around 1940.”, would it not be prudent to ask whether the two World War contributed to the shifts 1920 and 1940,
    __not only twice in the North Atlantic, http://www.2030climate.com/index_image/b/w_AMO.png ,
    __but also in the Pacific when PDO showed a stark decrease in the moment the war between the USA and Japan commenced in 1942 http://www.2030climate.com/index_image/b/w_PDO.jpg.
    Both images from http://www.2030climate.com/ with a link to material about the Arctic warming between 1919 and 1939.

  3. June 10, 2014 2:38 am

    ”The rapid warming beginning around 1920 coincides with switch of the AMO, from its low point in 1920 to its high, around 1940.Temperatures then proceed to plunge until the 1970’s, when again the AMO returns to its low point”.

    WRONG!: the overall global temp is always the same, BUT: the shonky ”climatologist” for the last 100y changed their versions; 3 times ”the ice age is around the corner” four times GLOBAL warming is inevitable in few decades and in the 70’s they were ”predicting” it will; be Nuclear Winter effect by year 20000, because of CO2 ”dimming” effect.

    So: the temperature overall is always the same; BUT, the ambitious shonks were ”massaging” the numbers to fit their propaganda differently at different times.

    Now those ”massaged” numbers are used by Warmist & skeptics as factual; ”AMO” is only in people’s heads, not in nature!… http://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/unavoidable-two-hurdles-to-cross/

    • June 10, 2014 11:19 am

      The temperatures I referred to for Greenland etc are real, just as the retreat of the Arctic ice in the early 20thC, and its rapid expansion again in the 1960’s and 70’s.

      In Iceland, they referred to the latter as the “Sea Ice Years”, which did enormous damage to their economy.

      There are plenty of contemporary references to these events, long before climatology even had a name!

  4. June 10, 2014 2:43 am

    quaesoveritas, the only ”cycles” on this planet are: day& night cycles – summer & winter cycles and Paris Hilton’s menstrual cycles – all the rest is coincidence, most are concocted cycles, when climatology wasn’t scrutinized!!! Cheers!…

  5. June 10, 2014 4:02 pm

    Thanks, Paul. This is a good analysis showing the impact of the AMO on the Arctic temperatures.
    I think it is obvious that the oceans affect the temperatures and not the other way.

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