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Flashback 1997 – Scientists Forecast Permanent El Ninos.

June 16, 2014

By Paul Homewood




Back in 1997, the BBC reported:


Scientists are warning that global warming could make the El Nino a permanent feature of the world’s weather system.

El Nino events normally occur roughly every 5 years, and last for between 12 and 18 months. However unpublished scientific research now suggests that the complex weather systems could occur every 3 years, making them a dominant weather pattern and in effect, almost permanent.

This year’s El Nino has been one of the strongest on record and has led to:

  • Droughts in Australia and Papua New Guinea.
  • Delayed monsoon in South East Asia leaving forest fires to rage out of control, blanketing the region with choking smog.
  • Storms on the Pacific coast of South and Central America from Chile to Mexico.
  • Drought in Southern Africa.
  • Threat of floods in Peru and California

In the last decade there have been 5 El Nino’s, and some scientists believe that rising greenhouse gases and global warming.

That’s a theory endorsed by Dr Russ Schnell, a scientist doing atmospheric research at Mauna Loa Observatory, 11,000 feet up on Hawaii. "It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Ninos are going to become more frequent, and they’re going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we’ll go into a permanent El Nino."

"So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we’ll have El Nino upon El Nino, and that will become the norm. And you’ll have an El Nino, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years," he said.

Incas sacrificed 80 people to stop El Nino

El Nino events have been occurring for thousands of years. It is a natural phenomenon that has always had a profound effect on those who live within its influence.

High in the Peruvian Andes, archeologists have discovered the skeletons of what they believe are human sacrifices, linked to El Nino events, at Inca temples of the Sun and the Moon.

Dr Steve Bourget from the University of East Anglia believes the 80 victims were sacrificed to placate the Gods during El Nino rainstorms. "On the north coast of Peru it almost never rains … it rains like this only during the time of Nino’s."

He continued, "So that’s why, during an El Nino event the temple was itself just melting down and they probably did the sacrifice in order to try and stop the rains."

Of course, the Inca priest’s ceremonies were in vain, and if the scientists predictions are accurate, so might the best efforts of 21st century technology.



Meanwhile, back in the real world:






As for the Incas placating the Gods for a bit of bad weather, are we really so much more advanced these days? We might no longer sacrifice lives, but our efforts to placate the Gods of Decarbonisation will probably be regarded by future generations as just as pointless.

  1. June 16, 2014 1:00 pm

    Reblogged this on the WeatherAction Blog.

  2. June 16, 2014 1:27 pm

    Reblogged this on Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations and commented:
    Thanks, Paul. I always enjoy things like this. Now we see papers predicting permanent La Nina domination…with periodic super El Ninos. But the models in the CMIP5 archive still can’t simulate basic processes in the tropical Pacific, like Bjerknes feedback, so all predictions are meaningless.

    • Dr.Kumares Mitra permalink
      July 2, 2014 12:55 pm

      Dear Bob, Your illuminating comment (above) is very encouraging.I am a retired professor in a Calcutta college & did my works in atmos. physics.Your two scientific articles :open letters to royal met. soc. & to Kevin…have overwhelmed me deeply .Would you, please,inform me whether Prof. Tenberth,has at all responded to your offer to write in WUWT ? Please give your e-mail address .
      Kumares Mitra.

  3. June 16, 2014 10:48 pm

    I love the way they made sure to link death with the “dangerous global warming/climate change” scenario – even if they had to resort to completely unsubstantiated and totally unverifiable claims about human sacrifice which may or may not be the case and could have been for any reason at all including ogling the high priest’s favourite concubine or daughter !

  4. John F. Hultquist permalink
    June 17, 2014 5:25 am

    In 1997, what Dr Russ Schnell, a scientist, should have said:
    “It appears that we haven’t a clue about the cause of El Niño events and it is unlikely that we soon will because we have given up on science and have accepted the UN as our savior.”

    He could have finished with:
    “Odds of winning the lotto are better than our predictions being correct. Have a nice day!”

    Think how good he would feel now for having been correct these past 17 years.

  5. John F. Hultquist permalink
    June 17, 2014 3:21 pm

    New story, maybe:
    It seems melting predicts melting.


  1. Flashback 1997: Climate Scientists Forecast Permanent El Ninos | The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)

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