Krebs Worries About Heatwaves
By Paul Homewood
The Telegraph report:
Nine out of ten hospital wards may be at risk of overheating, increasing the dangers for vulnerable patients who are left sweltering in temperatures of more than 26C (78.8F), government advisers have warned.
Poor ventilation, thin walls, low ceilings and big windows that can barely be opened are contributing to temperatures far exceeding acceptable levels during hot weather, according to the Committee on Climate Change.
One fifth of domestic properties could also already be overheating, with flats especially vulnerable, it finds.
The number of people dying prematurely from overheating could triple to 7,000 per year by the 2050s as global warming makes deadly heatwaves of the kind seen in 2003 the norm, unless housing and hospitals are adapted to cope with the heat, the CCC says.
In a wide-ranging report chaired by Lord Krebs, the CCC – the government’s official climate change advisors – suggest England is ill-prepared for the increased heatwaves and flooding that are expected to arise from “inevitable” global warming in coming decades.
This all comes on top of the NHS Heatwave Plan, which essentially tells us to put sun tan cream on, drink plenty of fluids, and don’t sit in the sun too long. All the things my mum told many moons ago!
But is there any evidence that heatwaves are becoming more common, or hotter? Well, not according to the Central England Temperature Series, which lists daily temperatures back to 1878. From this, we can plot all of the days which hit 29C or higher.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
The heatwaves of 2003 and 2006 stand out, just as the ones in 1975 and 76 do. It is clear, though, that the latter had more days above 29C.
| No of Days 29C+ | |
| 1975 | 4 |
| 1976 | 14 |
| 2003 | 5 |
| 2006 | 5 |
The hottest days recorded were in 1976 and 1990, hitting 33.2C. Meanwhile, since 2006, there has only been one day over 29C.
There is no evidence that the summers of 2003 and 2006 were anything other than weather, just as earlier summers had been. And there is certainly no evidence or pattern of such heatwaves increasing.
Indeed, there have been 43 days since 1878, which have recorded 30C or higher, yet it is now 8 years since the last. (The highest recorded this year so far is 23.7C in May- as at end of June).
The Telegraph notes:
The assessment of hospital wards comes from forthcoming Cambridge University research, which shows that temperatures are already exceeding 30C (86F) in some wards when the outside temperature is 22C (71.6F) – suggesting many hospital wards may have reached uncomfortably high temperatures during last week’s warm weather.
Professor Alan Short, the author of the Cambridge research, said that most modern hospitals were all of a type prone to overheating, with the worst performers being “very lightweight 1960s buildings”, with lots of windows, often pointing southwards, that were restrained from opening, high occupancy and thin walls.
Health and safety rules “not to allow any windows to be opened by more than four inches” had the “unintended consequence” of preventing adequate ventilation, he said.
The only type of hospital identified as being resilient to overheating were “Nightingale ward” buildings, which the last Labour government vowed to eliminate because they involved large numbers of patients on mixed wards.
If this is really true, it is clear there has been a very real problem for decades. It is therefore sad that it has taken climate change alarmism to highlight the issue.
Hospitals, just as much as the rest of us, are having to pay more for their electricity as a result of the government’s climate change policies. Perhaps that money might have better employed installing a few air conditioners. Unfortunately, the government’s mad rush to save CO2 emissions will probably make that even more unlikely.
Footnote
I wrote this before I went on holiday last week, so it does not reflect the hot weather of the last few days.
I will be updating the graphs etc, once the Met Office confirm the numbers for July.
However my reading of the situation suggests that maybe one day last week crept up to 30C.
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
If they are so poorly insulated then the heat loss in Autumn, Winter and Spring must be compensated for by excessive consumption of heating energy. This is probably not a concern because the NHS has loads o’ money and can do no wrong.
In my view, having spent a little time in them, UK hospitals are maintained at far too a high temperature anyway, thus providing an even better breeding ground for bugs (I have an axe to grind because I contracted MRSA while in hospital).
I agree with you, how can your average family take a new born baby home in mid-winter to a house at the same temperature as the ward they’ve just left. It’s asking for trouble.
It’s a bit off-thread, but one has to wonder how babies survive in Norway, when they are put outdoors at any time of the year from virtually day one. They are, however,very well wrapped up, which I imagine is what one would do to ones baby when one arrived home from an overheated hospital into a more sensible home environment.
I recall during one of our recent cold winters that an additional 30,000 old people actually died than would normally have perished during an average winter. For these unfortunate folks, there was no propaganda gain to be exploited by the green shirts and their global warming agenda. However ‘The number of people dying prematurely from overheating ***could*** triple to 7,000 per year by the 2050s as global warming makes deadly heatwaves’……..blah, blah, blah.
This would be the the same modelled global warming the BBC identifies as ‘truth’ these days.
Imagine the heat that this little dispute is causing:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2702945/Farmers-wife-says-shell-leave-husband-plan-install-40-000-solar-panels-land-approved.html
I’m rolled up here.
The comfort environment within a hospital has to meet a far greater range of needs than any house.
The staff; the elderly & infirm; new-borns; ‘normal’ patients; visitors dressed in outdoor clothing. In general wards; private rooms; corridors; public spaces.
Sophisticated controls can satisfy the bunch; but mixtures of the first group will be in all the latter places.
We’re all ‘comfortable’ at different temperatures – hands up, those males who surreptitiously turn down the ‘stat after the wife’s just turned it up!
johnfromcabanyal must realise that in winter, the hospital’s Building Services Engineer will have been hammered by their Financial Accountant (hi Paul) to minimise fuel consumption to reduce energy costs. In turn, he will have argued back that he has a welter of Rules & Regs to abide by.
Just one example: http://www.newcastle-hospitals.org.uk/WorkplaceTemperatures_-_GuidanceandAdvice.pdf
I particularly like the advice on P4 “Are thermometers available for staff to monitor the ambient temperature?”. Nowhere does it suggest to check beforehand whether the thermometer had previously been used to take a rectal reading.
More appropriate to the subject of this posting, from P1 of that document it recommends that to alleviate overheat situations “providing air-cooling plant;” No!! The first step to reducing overheating is to improve fresh-air ventilation. Positive cooling is very expensive to install & run.
Sweet Jesus give me strength. Finding it hard to breathe:
https://www.facebook.com/peoplesclimatemarchlondon?fref=photo
If it’s too warm, maybe Penny Red will be excused.
The response to a heat wave a few years ago.by the French Govt. was to commence the installation of air conditioning for the vulnerable,starting with care homes.The response by the D.E.C.C. was that heat kills people,and that was all.
I don’t mean to give Paul extra work, but a ‘heat wave’ isn’t defined by high day time temperatures alone. According to the NHS article it applies from 1st June to 15th September when:
“…average temperature of 30°C by day and 15°C overnight… for at least two days and the night in between.”
This accords with the Met Office version:
“…thresholds vary by region, but an average threshold temperature is 30C by day and 15C overnight for at least two consecutive days.” http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/weather-phenomena/heatwave
It would be interesting to see how this affects the overall picture in CET, though I imagine it would be very hard to work out.
UHI is certainly a very real problem, as far as night time temps are concerned
Paul,
That’s true; but the Met Office would argue that they adjust for UHI in the CET series.
I’ve spent an hour or so using the CET Tmin/Tmax data to plot periods that satisfy the Met Office heat wave criteria as detailed above (i.e. essentially day and night). I’ve applied an average of 15C for Tmin (night) and 30C for Tmax (day).
I used just Tmax for the graph plots for simplicity, but the markers all show periods when both day and night temperatures met the MO’s heat wave criteria.
As you can see, while no period has met the criteria since 2006, there’s been a firm overall upward trend in the frequency with which ‘official’ heat wave conditions have occurred in CET, especially since the mid-1970s.
They tell me they allow 0.2C for UHI, which from memory kicks in around 1970. In other words, there is no allowance for UHI changes since then.
(I don’t have access to this at mo, so as I say it is from memory).
Variations in night time temps between rural and cities are so great, that they must dwarf any climatic trends.
BTW it might be my hudl!, but I don’t get a graph, just Asian Beauties!!!!
One further thought, David.
UHI effect is much greater during still weather, such as typical heatwaves, and also cold spells in winter.
When it is windier, the air gets mixed more easily.
It follows that even if the adj for UHI is right on average, it is heavily understated during hot weather.
Sorry if the graph link led to a dodgy site! It was supposed to go to ‘Tinypics’ (honest).
>Health and safety rules “not to allow any windows to be opened by more than four inches”
To stop patients from escaping, perhaps? ‘Elfnsafety’ does get the rap for a lot of twaddle, but that does have the ring of truth about it. In the old days, when proper windows were installed, Matron would just order them to be opened wide! After all, people in hospital are mostly in bed…
“maybe one day last week crept up to 30C”
Here on the Isle of Wight (which although an island, doesn’t have too much UH) we have had nearly 3 weeks of glorious weather, despite dire storm warnings about 10 days ago from the MO that failed to materialise, and general wailing from the warmists about the dangers of too much heat. I checked our local weather station’s records and our hottest day so far was 29.5C (last Thursday) while last July it made it over 30C. Far more people die from cold than heat, but somehow that never makes the headlines…