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Correlation Of The AMO With NH Temperatures

August 22, 2014
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By Paul Homewood 

 

Further to my earlier post on the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere temperatures, it’s worth looking at the Woodfortrees graph below, which plots HADCRUT4 temperature anomalies for the NH, along with the AMO. Note that both series are detrended.

 

mean 12

 http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4nh/from:1850/mean:12/detrend:0.8/plot/esrl-amo/from:1850/mean:12

 

 

The correlation could hardly be closer. It does not take a genius to work out what will happen once the AMO turns back to its cold phase.

16 Comments
  1. August 22, 2014 4:26 pm

    Since AMO is based on SST which is also a large component of HadCRUT4, is it surprising that there is a correlation?

  2. Mikky permalink
    August 22, 2014 5:52 pm

    Could you define exactly what the AMO time series is?

  3. Chris Manuell permalink
    August 22, 2014 6:25 pm

    Both seem to be at the start of a downward trend.

  4. tom0mason permalink
    August 22, 2014 8:41 pm

    From this piece of research there does indeed seem to be a correlation –

    A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D.

    Stephen T. Gray, 1 Lisa J. Graumlich, 1 Julio L. Betancourt, 2 and Gregory T. Pederson 1 Received 9 March 2004; accepted 10 May 2004; published 17 June 2004.
    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 31, L12205, doi:10.1029/2004GL019932, 2004

    [my edit from the concluding comment in 4. Discussion]

    Such natural, low-frequency variations may also serve to alternately mask or amplify secular trends in the climate system [Kerr, 2000]. This is of particular concern when monitoring and modelling the effects of anthropogenic forcing on the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC). Previous studies propose that the effects of rising trace-gas concentrations might be sufficient to overwhelm internal, low-frequency processes in the North Atlantic [Collins and Sinha, 2003]. Because the AMO reconstruction is similar in the pre- and post-greenhouse eras, our results suggest that trace-gas forcing has yet to significantly affect the low-frequency component of THC variability. If the low-frequency components of THC variability continue to operate as they have for (at least) hundreds of years, the AMO and its impacts on Northern Hemisphere climate should be predictable over multiyear to decadal timescales [Collins and Sinha, 2003; Griffies and Bryan, 1997].

    see http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004GL019932/full

  5. tom0mason permalink
    August 22, 2014 8:48 pm

    Also see A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D.
    Stephen T. Gray, 1 Lisa J. Graumlich, 1 Julio L. Betancourt, 2 and Gregory T. Pederson
    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 31, L12205, doi:10.1029/2004GL019932, 2004

    At http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004GL019932/full

    for more interesting data and correlations

  6. August 23, 2014 6:33 am

    The Grauniad’s take on this.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/aug/21/global-warming-slowdown-answer-lies-in-depths-of-atlantic-study-finds
    Apparently it’s the Southern Ocean too!

  7. Dmh permalink
    August 23, 2014 8:28 am

    The AMO will force the Arctic ice up and accelerate the cooling trend at the N. Pole. This will add to the general trend that is now mainly forced from the increasing negative anomalies of the Antarctic basin and the negative PDO.
    The Indian ocean is also cooling, etc.
    All oceans will be with negative anomalies in a couple of years, all of them.
    I’ll not be surprised if the AMO flips negative before 2017, this would be some 7 to 8 years less than the previous duration of ~ 30+ years of the last positive mode.
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg

    • Dmh permalink
      August 23, 2014 8:31 am

      Of course, all this “accelerated cooling” is caused by the low intensity of the present solar cycle, which is shaping very clearly as a new solar grand minimum.

  8. August 25, 2014 10:13 pm

    Notice the AMO suggestion in this chart by NikFromNYC:

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=16ifevq&s=7#.U_u0rVbKnZ4

  9. David A permalink
    August 25, 2014 10:19 pm

    A great graphic line to add to this chart would be a ppm CO2 record.

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