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Jennifer Francis Ignores The Evidence Of The Past

September 28, 2014
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood 

 

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http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26278-crazy-weather-traced-to-arctics-impact-on-jet-stream.html#.VCgmrxawSpO

 

Jennifer Francis continues to push her “global warming will lead to colder winters” nonsense, even though NOAA’s own (admittedly adjusted and homogenised) data tells the exact opposite.

 

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/2/01-12

 

New Scientist carry this latest report:

 

The rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice caused by climate change may be to blame for more frequent prolonged spells of extreme weather in Europe, Asia and North America, such as heat waves, freezing temperatures or storms.

These are relatively short-term periods of bizarre weather, like the cold snap that paralysed North America earlier this year, rather than longer-term rises in temperature.

They are related to "stuck" weather patterns, Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, told a conference on Arctic sea ice reduction in London on 23 September. "Is it global warming? I think it’s safe to answer yes," she told the meeting.

Francis said a growing number of studies, including her own, suggest that the melting Arctic is having knock-on effects on the jet stream, the river of air that snakes around the northern hemisphere at an altitude of around 5 to 6 kilometres, and which has a profound impact on the world’s weather.

The jet stream is driven by the flow of air between the cold Arctic pole and warmer air that moves upwards from nearer the equator. As the warmer air advances polewards, it is swung eastwards by the Coriolis force which comes from Earth’s spin, creating a snake-like stream. "It’s a fast-moving river of air, a very messy creature," says Francis.

The strength of the jet stream depends on the temperature gradient between the regions of cold and warm air – the wider the difference, the faster and stronger the jet stream.

 

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, an effect enhanced when the sea ice that normally cools the Arctic air melts away. Because of this, the air currents that come from that region are getting disproportionately warmer too, narrowing the temperature difference between the Arctic and southerly winds, and thereby weakening the jet stream itself. "The winds have weakened by 10 per cent over the past three decades in the west-to-east wind of the jet stream," says Francis.

Francis thinks that, as the cool air of the Arctic becomes warmer, the jet stream is slowing down, almost to the point of stopping trapping weather systems in one place for prolonged periods. Instead of swirling round the world, winds reverberate back and forth in the same place, creating what she calls "extreme waves".

Her research shows that these extreme waves are becoming much more common, helping to explain the increase in prolonged extreme weather events. Between 1995 and 2013 – the period when the Arctic began warming disproportionately fast – extreme waves over North America became 49 per cent more common during autumn and 41 per cent more common in the winter than they were between 1979 and 1994, before the disproportionate Arctic warming.

 

Francis’ theory might hold a bit of credibility, if the same sort of jet stream meridionality had not been responsible for a greater frequency of such “weather blocking” in the 1960’s & 70’s, when the Arctic was getting much colder and Arctic ice was expanding.

 

 

HH Lamb, in his book “Climate, History & The Modern World” reports:

 

Such world-wide surveys as have been attempted seem to confirm the increase of variability of temperature and rainfall [since the middle of the 20thC].

In Europe, as has been noted by Prof Flohn and by Dr Schuurmans of the Netherlands meteorological service, there is a curious change in the pattern of variability: from some time between 1940 & 1960 onwards, the occurrence of extreme seasons – both as regards temperature and rainfall- has notably increased.

A worldwide list of the extreme seasons reported since 1960 makes impressive reading. Among the items are:

Scan

 

Lamb goes on:

 

These variations, perhaps more than any underlying trend towards a warmer or colder climate, create difficulties for the planning age in which we live. They may be associated with the increased meridionality of the general wind circulation, the greater frequency of blocking, of stationary high and low pressure systems giving prolonged northerly winds in one longitude and southerly winds in another longitude sector.

 

And it was not only Lamb. CC Wallen,  Head of the Special Environmental Applications Division of the World Meteorological Organization, had this to say about the consequences of the cooling trend since 1940:

The principal weather change likely to accompany the cooling trend is increased variability-alternating extremes of temperature and precipitation in any given area-which would almost certainly lower average crop yields.

During cooler climatic periods the high-altitude winds are broken up into irregular cells by weaker and more plentiful pressure centers, causing formation of a "meridional circulation" pattern. These small, weak cells may stagnate over vast areas for many months, bringing unseasonably cold weather on one side and unseasonably warm weather on the other. Droughts and floods become more frequent and may alternate season to season, as they did last year in India. Thus, while the hemisphere as a whole is cooler, individual areas may alternately break temperature and precipitation records at both extremes.

 

And he even gave us these diagrams.

 

screenhunter_432-may-22-17-50

https://www.sciencenews.org/sites/default/files/8983

 

 

Why is it that the junk scientists of today assume that everything they see is the result of global warming, and totally ignore the evidence of the past?

 

 

Sources

HH Lamb – “Climate, History & The Modern World” pp267 to 269

8 Comments
  1. September 28, 2014 8:17 pm

    Reblogged this on CraigM350.

  2. September 28, 2014 10:07 pm

    I agree with the observations of H H Lamb and have taken them a step further:

    http://www.newclimatemodel.com/new-climate-model/

    If you have connection problems please persist. I have noted such difficulties of late which may result from increased traffic to my site.

  3. John F. Hultquist permalink
    September 29, 2014 1:03 am

    The jet stream is driven by the flow of air between the cold Arctic pole and warmer air that moves upwards from nearer the equator. As the warmer air advances polewards, it is swung eastwards by the Coriolis force which comes from Earth’s spin, creating a snake-like stream. “It’s a fast-moving river of air, a very messy creature,”

    Gobbledygook.

    Then there is this: related to “stuck” weather patterns

    What nonsense.

  4. Ben Vorlich permalink
    September 29, 2014 11:32 am

    Steve Goddard has done quite a few posts on this very subject, including links to newspaper cuttings

    For instance here
    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/09/17/in-1975-scientists-blamed-jet-stream-dips-on-global-cooling/

  5. September 29, 2014 6:23 pm

    Wow… Jenifer you’re on to something here… but its the exact opposite of what your asserting…

    Ice-Free Arctic Forecasting has been going on for over 100 years… this year Arctic Ice is up 62% over 2012… bringing it back to 1970’s levels:

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/ice-free-arctic-forecasts/

  6. September 29, 2014 6:25 pm

    Jenifer… ACTUAL Temperature readings, … before ‘adjustment’ show the 30’s as much hotter, far more extreme than today…

    Folks need to learn more about Climate History.. this Climate Disruption and Global Warming thing is a scam for the most part… its a cycle which has always happened before, not permanent Apocalyptic warming..

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/?s=100+degree+days

  7. September 30, 2014 5:07 pm

    Guys
    I hope you all know that is globally cooling from 2002, right?
    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2015/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2002/trend

    In fact, I have good reason to believe that it is worse than those “official” data sets, simply because they have not been balanced properly.

    Here is what a balanced sample looks like:
    http://blogs.24.com/henryp/files/2013/02/henryspooltableNEWc.pdf
    According to my estimate, we are globally cooling at an average rate of -0.015K/annum since 2000. So, we are already down by about -0.2K since 2000.
    From my graphs, I donot yet see the end of the cooling?

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