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Temperature Adjustments In The Northeast

September 28, 2014
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By Paul Homewood 

 

image_thumb24

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/09/22/is-hayhoe-wrong-or-noaa/

 

I have been looking at Katharine Hayhoe’s Northeast Climate Assessment, and reviewing how much effect temperature adjustments have had on temperature trends.

David has claimed that the effect is slight, 0.01C/dec on the rate between 1970-2006.

 

This reminded me that I had originally posted on Hayhoe’s assessment back in December 2011, when I showed this NOAA graph of temperature trends in the Northeast.

 

image

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2011/12/28/katharines-northeast-climate-impacts-assessment/

 

The trend since 1911 was a pretty insignificant 0.07F/decade. This was, of course, based on the old Divisional dataset, which used raw temperature data.

 

We can compare this graph with the latest version, which is based on adjusted and homogenised data.

 

multigraph

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

 

We find that the trend from 1911-2010 has jumped from 0.07F to 0.2F/decade. This certainly cannot be described as “slight”.

It is also apparent from the original graph that temperatures in the 1940’s & 50’s were similar to recent ones. Both periods coincide with the high points of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

 

tsgcos.corr.86.182.234.125.270.7.55.49

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/tsanalysis.pl?tstype1=91&tstype2=0&year1=1895&year2=&itypea=0&axistype=0&anom=0&plotstyle=0&climo1=&climo2=&y1=&y2=&y21=&y22=&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=1&mon1=0&mon2=11&Submit=Calculate+Results

 

 

 

Whether the adjustments are right or wrong, Hayhoe based her assessment on the old unadjusted data, as that was all that was available at the time from NOAA. The Executive Summary of the Assessment begins:

 

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http://www.climateshift.com/downloads/northeast/confronting-climate-change-in-the-u-s-northeast.pdf

 

Given that there had been little or no increase in temperatures over the period since the 1940’s, why would Hayhoe choose to use 1970 as her starting point?

And why would she conclude that the warming since the cold 1960’s and 70’s was “consistent with global warming”?

3 Comments
  1. September 28, 2014 3:33 pm

    Thanks, Paul.
    It seems like the NOAA temperatures for the NE of the USA have already passed a tipping point and are now runaways.
    In a couple of weeks the inhabitants will start wishing for some real global warming.

  2. Sceptical Sam permalink
    September 30, 2014 7:58 am

    The answer to your first (rhetorical) question is:

    Because there was a new species of cherry developed in the 1970s; the “green cherry” (Prunus cerasus viridem). And it could only be picked by left-handed, union controlled, green cherry pluckers.

    The answer to you second (rhetorical) question is;

    Because Prunus cerasus viridem has a very unfortunate side-effect known as “green cherry plucker syndrome”; the symptoms of which comprise digging a hole the size of their head (not very big), kneeling down and placing their head in the hole. They tend to look for sandy soil for this activity. Hence the term: “head-in-the-sand”. Sometimes they are known as droops.

  3. Andy DC permalink
    April 1, 2016 9:40 pm

    I have lived near Washington, DC my entire life and very conscious of when various flowers bloom. I can remember, for example that as a kid in the 1950’s and 1960’s that forsythia commonly bloomed around St. Patrick’s Day. This year they bloomed about March 19th, last year, not until early April.

    They can play games and lie all they want about temperature records, but plants don’t lie and plants are saying that there has not been significant climate change for the last 60 years.

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