Tornado Count Remains Low
October 2, 2014
By Paul Homewood
A quick update on US tornadoes, which have continued to run at well below average levels.
Based on provisional numbers, tornado numbers are the second lowest of the last decade, up to the end of September. (Tornado numbers are confirmed up to July). Last year boasted the lowest number, both at this stage of the year and for the full year.
On a longer term, the “inflation adjusted” number is also close to the minimum.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
As for stronger tornadoes, there have so far been eight EF-4 tornadoes, and no EF-5’s. Last year there were also eight EF-4’s, for the full year, and one EF-5.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Could be a setup for a significant tornado outbreak in the US over the next day or so.
Hope not.
Though I enjoy a good thunder boomer as much as the next guy, the Hoosier doesn’t miss tornadoes at all.
Sounds ridiculously resilient to me:
http://blogs.kqed.org/science/2014/09/29/the-connection-between-californias-drought-and-climate-change/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/11139853/Scotland-power-shortage-warning-as-coal-plant-faces-closure.html
I cannot make sense of what exactly is plotted in the three SPC graphs at
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#torgraph
The third one, “inflation adjusted”, indicates 2014 is now quieter than 2013 for the period to 28th Nov:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/adj.html
The annual trend removal in “inflation adjusted” plots is very uncertain, but I think that plot is more useful to compare 2014 with 2013, because it removes the much bigger problem of duplicate entries in 2014 Local Storm Reports – we have to wait until early 2015 for duplicate reports to get properly removed.
The inflation adj one attempts to make this year comaparable to other years back to 1954, when of course many tornadoes that would be spotted today were missed.
As such it is of limited value for comparing recent years.
As you say, we won’t know the exact numbers for 2014 until March.
The inflation adjustment seems to have two parts, (1) the annual trend adjustment, and (2) the removal of duplicate entries in the preliminary Local Storm Reports for the current year. So, I guess (1) is very similar for 2013 and 2014, whereas (2) is the uncertain bit – but based on past experience, 2014 looks like it’ll have fewer tornadoes than 2013.
I found this page, showing the difference between preliminary (Local Storm Reports) and actual 2014 data:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html
The actual 2013 numbers are there as well.
If December is not too much above normal, then 2014 will come in below 2013. Wow.
Seems like Time magazine is catching on to the tornado lull:
http://time.com/3632729/tornado-low/
The confirmed, actual tornado numbers are compiled up to September 2014:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html
Using the final numbers up to Sep 2014 and preliminary numbers for Oct-Dec, then 2014 will have fewer tornadoes than 2013 – unless there’s a big outbreak in the last two weeks this year.