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Mid Continental Droughts On The Decline

October 15, 2014

By Paul Homewood



  farmer and sons during a dust storm in Cimarron County, Oklahoma, 1936


WUWT runs with news of a study suggesting that the North American drought of 1934 may have been the worst for a millenium.


One of the authors, Richard Seager, makes the almost obligatory comment


The risk of severe mid-continental droughts is expected to go up over time, not down.

Unfortunately for Seager, historical data tells the opposite story. Take, for instance , the “South Region” , as defined on this map





The long term drought trend according to NOAA is actually reducing. Indeed the droughts of the 1950’s and 60’s were worse than the 1930’s.




And the upper Midwest?




And Ohio Valley?







I realise it is difficult for climate scientists to admit that not everything has got worse with “climate change”. After all, they would not want to risk their next grant money being stopped.

Fortunately, there are still some places where you can get the truth.

  1. October 15, 2014 12:29 pm

    Reblogged this on and commented:
    It’s getting worse in the virtual world.

  2. October 15, 2014 1:54 pm

    Reblogged this on the WeatherAction News Blog.

  3. October 15, 2014 1:55 pm

    I have shown you all that earth is cooling from the top latitudes downward, meaning more cooling at higher latitudes and less or no cooling at the lower latitudes.
    the fact that everyone is hiding these relevant results is completely immaterial [to me]:
    The long and short of it will be that it will get drier (and maybe even somewhat warmer during the day) in the higher latitudes, especially north america.
    My calculations from various resources show that 1927=2016. That means we are about 7 years from the dust bowl drought times.

  4. John F. Hultquist permalink
    October 15, 2014 4:20 pm

    Good info, Paul. Thanks for pulling it together.

    A couple of related thoughts:
    Tropical cyclones, hurricanes in the USA language, begin (usually) in the latitudes a few degrees north of the Equator over warm ocean water. They carry energy and moisture from lower latitudes to higher latitudes. When hurricanes come onto the South or Southeast USA they bring much precipitation. Not saying the world is warming, but if it does this process ought to increase, adding moisture to the lands and suppressing drought.

    Further, we are told that a warmer world should experience more evaporation and, thus, more precipitation. That doesn’t square with increasing drought –
    …unless one can show specific regional pattern changes caused by warming. Insofar as “climate science™” can’t do this, all we have are analogies from history. Anyone can pick a favorite.

  5. October 16, 2014 1:33 pm

    I think that is putting the horse behind the cart. What is driving the weather in the first place? It is the difference in temperature (and subsequent different in pressure) is it not? So if the temperature difference between the equator and the poles increases, what will happen as a consequence?
    My thinking is that you would get more water vapor condensation /cloud formation/ precipitation occurring in the lower latitudes and less at the higher latitudes. That is just pure physics/physical chemistry. Either way, the wind will blow…..

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