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Has The Missing Heat Gone Back To Space?

October 28, 2014

By Paul Homewood


An interesting article from Kiwi Thinker, An Empirical Look at Recent Trends in the Greenhouse Effect.


He poses some pertinent questions about the greenhouse effect:


Just in case you were not aware, since about 1997 or so, there has been nearly no global temperature rise. This is despite atmospheric CO2 concentration continuing to rise. To date there are some 55 ideas to explain this slowdown in global warming. Some of the ‘explanations’ presume the so-called ‘greenhouse effect’ is operating as the IPCC models calculated; it’s just that the heat has hidden elsewhere, maybe deep in the ocean.

I wondered if there was empirical data available of the greenhouse effect? And could it show whether or not the greenhouse effect is increasing with increasing CO2, as the IPCC models expect?

First a very quick summary of the IPCC’s greenhouse theory goes something like this.  Increasing CO2 absorbs some of the upwards radiation from the surface, and then re-emits it back toward earth. This has the effect of increasing earth’s atmospheric temperature as outgoing longwave infrared radiation (OLWIR) is reduced by increasing quantities of CO2. Then, recognising that water vapour is the main greenhouse gas, the IPCC models propose that positive feedbacks dominate. This is where some warming leads to increased water vapour, and as water vapour is the main greenhouse gas this increases the greenhouse effect, this further lowers OLWIR, and increases the temperature.

So let’s see how the measurements fit the theory. I needed two data sets, one for OLWIR, and the other global temperature.



 The full analysis can be read here , but he concludes that the missing heat has gone back to space as it always has – as per SB law, via OLWIR, as the graph below shows.


  1. catweazle666 permalink
    October 28, 2014 11:12 pm

    the IPCC models propose that positive feedbacks dominate. This is where some warming leads to increased water vapour


    Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10% after the year 2000.

    And this:

    Looks pretty trendless to me.

    So no cigar, IPCC.

  2. catweazle666 permalink
    October 28, 2014 11:15 pm

    Why do all my posts on this blog disappear into moderation?

    There appears to be little or no point in bothering to post.

    • October 29, 2014 11:02 am

      If they have 2 links or more, they go into moderation.

      (I’ve now increased the default to 3 links)

  3. Richard111 permalink
    October 29, 2014 8:52 am

    The way this layman sees it is that water is indeed the temperature regulator of the planet because so much of the surface is covered with it. Heat arrives over the equatorial regions and leaves from the polar regions. Water is a good radiator, ice not so good. If the North Pole was ice free a huge amount of energy would escape to space. When it is covered with ice it still radiates but the radiation reduces as the surface of the ice cools more.
    The Antarctic Polar Region is not radiating as much energy as it did say 30 years ago, check ice extent and temperatures. Ice at -60C aint radiating much LWIR.
    Check also GLOBAL sea surface temperatures. Warm SST does not absorb as much CO2 as cooler SSTs.

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