China’s New Energy Plan Forecasts Big Rise In CO2 Emissions

By Paul Homewood  

 

News from Enerdata that China has published a new Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020), presumably following on from the US-China agreement last week.

 

The State Council of China has unveiled a new Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020) focusing on the development of renewables and capping primary energy consumption at 4.8 Gtce/year until 2020, i.e. limiting the primary energy consumption growth rate to 3.5%/year until 2020. China aims to limit coal consumption to 4.2 Gt/year until 2020, a 16% increase over the 2013 consumption level of 3.6 Gt. China will also target a reduction of coal in the primary energy mix to under 62% by 2020, to the advantage of non-fossil fuels (15% by 2020 and 20% by 2030, from about 10% in 2013) and gas (10% by 2020). By 2020, the installed nuclear power capacity is expected to reach 58 GW, with an additional 30 GW under construction; inland nuclear power projects will be studied, while the construction of nuclear reactors on coastal areas will begin "at a proper time". China targets an installed hydropower capacity of 350 GW by 2020, with wind and solar capacities reaching 200 GW and 100 GW respectively. Shale gas and coalbed methane production should reach 30 bcm by 2020 and the energy self-sufficiency rate will be boosted to about 85%.

http://www.enerdata.net/enerdatauk/press-and-publication/energy-news-001/china-unveils-new-energy-strategy-capping-annual-coal-consumption_30723.html

 

A number of things stand out here:

 

1) Capping primary energy consumption at 4.8 Gtce/year until 2020

This refers to “Gigatonnes Carbon Equivalent”. Provisional figures for 2013, from CDIAC, give carbon emissions as 2.7Gtce, so China are allowing themselves a substantial amount of headroom to continue growing emissions. (See Update)

There should be no surprise here. As I pointed out a year ago, China’s promise to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP were actually likely to lead to a doubling of emissions, dependent on economic growth.

As their commitment is to peak emissions by 2030, we can expect the figure of 4.8Gtce to continue to rise through the 2020’s.

 

2) China aims to limit coal consumption to 4.2 Gt/year until 2020, a 16% increase over the 2013 consumption level of 3.6 Gt

No sign of any cuts in coal use then.

 

3) China will also target a reduction of coal in the primary energy mix to under 62% by 2020

While the proportion of coal within the overall mix is forecast to decline from 69% in 2011, the actual amount used will increase, as total energy consumption rises.

 

4) By 2020, the installed nuclear power capacity is expected to reach 58 GW, with an additional 30 GW under construction; inland nuclear power projects will be studied, while the construction of nuclear reactors on coastal areas will begin "at a proper time". China targets an installed hydropower capacity of 350 GW by 2020, with wind and solar capacities reaching 200 GW and 100 GW respectively.

Although China has promised to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in the energy mix to 20% by 2030. what is less well known is that hydro and other non-fossil fuels were already contributing 8% in 2011, according to the EIA, or approximately 20% of electricity output. This figure will have grown since then, with extra hydro coming on stream. It is likely that non-fossil sources will be supplying around 10% by the end of this year.

Moreover, with new nuclear and hydro capacity already under construction or with planning approved, electricity generation from nuclear and hydro will likely more than triple from 772 TWh in 2011 to around 2500 TWh by 2025.

None of this increase in capacity is happening as a result of any agreement with Obama. Instead it has been planned for several years.

It also needs to be pointed out that China’s massive switch to hydro power has had highly damaging side effects, such as the displacement of as many as 23 million people, according to figures from the International Business Times.

 

5) Wind and solar reaching 200 GW and 100 GW by 2020

Capacities were 75 GW and 3GW respectively in 2013. In terms of output, by 2020 wind/solar should be supplying around 500 TWh pa, about 10% of China’s electricity needs. Nothing fantastic there then, and certainly nothing approaching UK targets.

 

  

Perhaps the real story behind all of this is that China will continue to consume ever greater amounts of energy, as its economy continues to grow, something that won’t stop any time soon.

The EIA show how this will carry on growing even after 2030, and how the use of fossil fuels will carry on growing in the meantime.  

 

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH

 

The idea that China’s CO2 emissions will drop below today’s levels in my lifetime is sheer fantasy.

 

UPDATE

As has been pointed out, and as other sources confirm, the figure of 4.8GTce refers to “coal equivalent”, and nor “carbon equivalent”. No figures seem to be given in the plan for CO2 emissions, but it is worth noting that the increase in coal consumption alone, from 3.6 to 4.2 Gt/yr will add 0.3Gt/yr to emissions (Carbon equivalent). This would be an increase of 11% on current total emissions for China (i.e. from all sources, not just coal).

 

In addition, there will be further increases in emissions from greater planned consumption of oil and gas.