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Records & Adjustments

December 4, 2014

By Paul Homewood  

 

While the Met Office tell us that that global temperatures for 2014 are running 0.01C above the previous record (with an error margin of 0.1C!), we should remember how much their temperature data has changed over the last few years.

 

image

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadCRUT3-gl.dat

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.4.3.0.0.monthly_ns_avg.txt

 

[The latest update of the old V3 is only up to May 2014]

 

In their Hadcrut V3, 1998 was 0.07C warmer than 2010, but is now shown as 0.02C cooler, a turnaround of 0.09C. Current year numbers, at least up to May, have been similarly inflated.

 

So, the adjustment is nearly ten times the amount by which the old record is claimed to have been beaten by!

12 Comments
  1. Kelvin Vaughan permalink
    December 4, 2014 6:14 pm

    It was so cold on a few days in August that my central heating switched itself on.

  2. Bloke down the pub permalink
    December 4, 2014 7:25 pm

    Moving the goalposts so often kept them warm.

  3. catweazle666 permalink
    December 4, 2014 7:26 pm

    Just because the temperature is going down doesn’t mean that it’s not getting warmer, Steve.

    I’m sure Zeke and Mosh could soon put you right!

    • December 4, 2014 8:59 pm

      Who is Steve and what did he say?

  4. December 4, 2014 7:45 pm

    The changes to past data are something the general public are not aware of, and it’s strange that generally the past is always reduced relative to current temperatures.

    Also while 2014 may be the warmest CALENDAR year it may not be the warmest 12 months according to HadCRUT4.

    If November and December have the same anomaly as October, the final 2014 figure will be 0.573c, whereas the year ending July 2010 is currently 0.58c and the year ending August 2008 is 0.576c making them almost identical to 2014, ignoring error margins.

    Of course the Met. Office might say that only arbitrary calendar years count for records.

  5. December 4, 2014 8:21 pm

    Reblogged this on Real Science.

  6. Matt permalink
    December 4, 2014 9:14 pm

    How do they justify such large adjustments? This is over 10% of the total warming since 1850.

  7. manicbeancounter permalink
    December 4, 2014 10:35 pm

    At least HADCRUT has distinct versions that can be compared. The NASA GISTEMP figures are updated on an ad hoc basis, which makes it very difficult to track which version is being used. In a 2011 version of GISTEMP I noticed that the warming rate from 1998 to 2010 was slightly higher than the 1976-1998 rate. With HADCRUT3 the later period had less than one seventh of the warming rate of the earlier one. By 2014 GISTEMP was much more in line with HADCRUT4.
    Looking further back through the temperature series, the 2011 GISTEMP series seemed to give quite strong support to the AGW hypothesis. That is the 1976-2010 warming was 2.2 times that of the early twentieth century (1910-1944) warming. In HADCRUT3 it was just 1.05 times. For 2014 GISTEMP it is now just 1.2 times.
    http://manicbeancounter.com/2014/06/28/nasa-corrects-errors-in-the-gistemp-data/

  8. December 4, 2014 11:19 pm

    Reblogged this on Climatism.

  9. Rud Istvan permalink
    December 5, 2014 12:03 am

    Paul, thanks for this new catch. You, Tony Heller, Jen Merohasy, Frank Landsner, Anthony Watts (SurfaceStations.org), and many others provided most of the illustrations for the topical essay When Data Isn’t in Blowing Smoke, foreward by Judith Curry.
    I sent her the essay draft (not for blog posting) to get her professional expert reaction. To paraphase a private communication, it was ‘Holy Cow!’ Then she posted on the general ‘cool the past and warm the present’ temperature record thesis and all hell broke lose. As it should have. Thread Led to serious footnote 24 to the essay. Still gives Mosher heartburn.

    Highest regards. I haven’t the energy/bandwidth to blog as you all do. I can only read, reflect, research, and then write at a pretty slow pace. A Simple book of energy and climate essays drawing on two previous books (four previous years of research) still took two years to write.

  10. Brian H permalink
    December 5, 2014 8:43 am

    Last sentence: One “by” will suffice.

    The adjustments are more than the trend. The trend is thus an artifact of the adjustments.

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