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Warm Arctic Is Simply Part Of Natural Cycle

December 26, 2014

By Paul Homewood  





The most iconic symbol of the global warming scare is the “melting Arctic”. But is the Arctic any warmer than back in the 1930’s and 40’s?

Certainly not in places like Akuryri, in Iceland, as GISS show.




To get a fuller picture, I have calculated 30 year average temperatures at four stations, using GISS temperature data starting in 1900 (except Jan Mayen, which begins in 1921):


Akureyri – Iceland

Godthab Nuuk – Greenland

Jan Mayen – Norway

Archangel – Russia



All stations are affected by Atlantic influences. I have worked out anomalies for each station, using a baseline of 1981-2010. The results are shown below.





In all cases there is a concerted rise in temperatures from the start of the record, peaking in the 1950’s. This is followed by a steep decline.

Temperatures are now back to, or still below in Nuuk and Akureyri’s case, earlier levels.


Atlantic influences, and in particular the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, not only affect areas fringing the ocean itself, but much further east to Siberia. For instance, Ostrov Dikson shows a similar cyclical pattern:






The effect that the AMO, shown below, has on Arctic temperatures is unmistakeable.






Based on previous cycles, the AMO maybe has another ten years before it starts its probably rapid decline. When that happens, temperatures across the Eastern Arctic will plummet.





Temperature data is from the GISS unadjusted dataset

  1. December 26, 2014 11:20 am

    Well that’s shattered another scaremongers’ story.

  2. December 26, 2014 11:23 am

    What is wrong with these records? They don’t seem to be bent .. Oh, sorry, they might still be bent. And if they are bent and still show .. Oh my! Never mind ..

  3. December 26, 2014 11:52 am

    Shahinaz M. Yousef
    Astronomy &Meteorology Dept.
    Faculty of Science -Cairo University
    ABSTRACT- The only continuous solar observations that extend over the important
    climatic time scale of decades to centuries are those of sunspots, yielding a measure of
    magnetic activity. There are evidences for the modulation of the amplitude of the 11
    year solar cycle in a period of about 80 years known as Wolf-Gleissberg cycle. The
    Cycle seems to be fairly clear in the sunspot record and in its proxy measurements by
    cosmogenic isotopes. The cycle appears to show up in many meteorological
    parameters, suggesting that there may be an important sun/climate connection over
    long periods of time(Hoyt and Schatten 1997).
    The Solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycle stimulate solar forcing on terrestrial phenomena’s as
    evident from the pattern of Global temperature (both air and ocean temperatures).
    Solar Wolf- Gleissberg periodicity is marked in a wide range of terrestrial evidences
    since millions of years and is still at work. It is found that climatic fluctuations are
    induced at the turning points of such cycles.
    In order to solve this problem, it is found that there are three types of solar cycles
    occurring on the sun namely, those occurring during Maunder minimum anomalies
    that caused the very cold weather in the little ice age (1645-1715), normal sunspots
    and low amplitude (weak sunspots of longer duration) occurring in the shallow dip in
    between successive Wolf- Gleissberg cycles. The later ones also induce cooling of the
    air and sea surface temperatures.
    The key in understanding the cause and effect of those types of solar cycles lies in the
    fact that those low amplitude intermediate cycles rotate faster than the normal ones
    thus . Hoyt and Schatten (1997) argue that any change in solar rotation rate is a very
    persuasive indicator that the deeper levels of convection are varying, and hence there
    is a corresponding variation in solar luminosity and irradiance. Also there has been
    evidence of change of the daily equatorial rates and cycle length at the maximum of
    the last Solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycle around cycle 19.
    Climate fluctuations are known from, sharp rises or falls of lakes levels, temperature
    anomalies, change in the general wind circulation and droughts and flood- Hazards.
    Yousef(1995a) predicted the downturn of solar activity in 1997 with the start of weak
    low amplitude fast rotation and longer duration sunspot cycle 23. This is evidently
    confirmed by the sharp rise of lake Victoria level in 1997-98. Lean (2001) is also
    seeing a drop in the solar irradiance which might be the start of a longer term drop.
    Since that is the case, then 1997 is a year of climate fluctuation and a drop of global
    earth air and sea temperature is predicted soon similar to that happened during similar
    circumstances around 1800 and 1900, with increased El Nino and La Nina frequencies
    leading to wide spread flood -drought hazards and God knows best.

  4. December 26, 2014 2:36 pm

    Thanks, Paul.
    Yes, the AMO seems to be well correlated to temperature in the Arctic.
    The Earth’s climate is the most complex system we have undertaken to explore.

  5. December 27, 2014 2:33 pm

    Reblogged this on Globalcooler's Weblog.

  6. Linda Douglas permalink
    December 27, 2014 9:51 pm

    Interesting point there. I kept watching, the last few days, all the commercials made by Greenpeace, with “Save the Arctic” logo and I kept wondering if what they’re saying is 100% true or if it’s also some kind of manipulation…. Then, after searching the Internet, I found a well documented site about Arctic warming,, and I started to understand all that process and how the ocean influenced climate.

  7. Brian permalink
    December 29, 2014 1:04 am


    Were you able to access the archived data before Hansen and Schmidt ‘fixed’ the data removing ‘suspicious records’ and ‘homogeneity’ adjustments?

    Too bad the data isn’t protected under the Geneva Convention.

  8. Gary H permalink
    December 29, 2014 3:52 am

    Now you’ve gone and done it. The Ostrov Dikson sta data is now set to be adjusted, as have so many others . . ‘making the 1940’s warming disappear.’

    I’d give them a month, or two.

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