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The Decadal Climate Bet

January 10, 2015

By Paul Homewood 


h/t nzrobin

Reposted from Kiwi Thinker




Four years ago, early 2011, a decadal global temperature bet was made. And with all the hype about 2014 being the hottest year, now is a good time to check out progress with ‘the bet’. But first a little background for any newcomers.

At the time the bet was made (early 2011) December 2010 marked the end of the previous ten year period. January 2011 marked the beginning of the next. The transition stimulated the formation of a decadal global climate bet.

And so the coolists (led by Pierre Gosselin – NoTricksZone) and the warmists (led by Rob Honeycutt – Skeptical Science) are having a bet.  They agreed to use a composite of Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) lower troposphere temperature – close to the earth’s surface.  They agreed that the result would be accepted without quibbling, as it was agreed between them that those series are the best that we’ve got.  The average of the two series will decide the bet!

I have shown ‘the race’ as it progresses by graphing an accumulating total, ie: adding 1/120th of the average of the UAH and RSS monthly global anomalies month by month.  The sum of these numbers after 120 months (10 years) is of course the global decadal average.



Climate bet at 4 years



We are now 40% through the race … and clearly it is still close with the coolists in the lead by half a nose.

Now back to the hype we’re hearing about the ‘hot’ 2014. Notice that during 2014 (months 37 to 48) the green line just keeps trucking along at the same basic slope as it has for the past few years and much of the previous decade too. There was even a small El Nino in 2014, whose effect is conspicuous by its absence. Maybe the heat that is missing in the observed atmospheric temperature trend is hiding in the ocean?


Read the rest here.  


The climate establishment have had to resort to the “hottest decade” meme, since global temperatures stopped rising. I wonder what their next tactic will be come 2020?

  1. January 10, 2015 11:37 am

    What will you do if during the race the methodology of RSS and/or UAH changes?

    • nzrobin permalink
      January 10, 2015 7:00 pm

      My thought would be to use the then current set of data from each. Eg: to use UAH ver 6 when Roy and friends release it.

      I should point out too that I am simply an observer of ‘the bet’. I personally have not bet. The people who agreed the rules are Pierre, Notrickszone and Rob, Skeptical Science and I do my best to interpret their intent.

  2. neil hampshire permalink
    January 10, 2015 7:03 pm

    What were the final sums of money “bet” by each of the two parties?

  3. January 12, 2015 3:41 am

    very nice comparison! i love your site: objective, factual, on the mark!!!

  4. Dave Lowry permalink
    January 12, 2015 8:13 pm

    I like the comparison you’ve made and the way you explained facts. Then, I agree that there global warming and global cooling are two different ideas about what is happening to our planet. Anyway, perhaps we should think in terms of local warming or local cooling. Perhaps the areas influenced depend on their position relating the ocean / sea near them. There have been several climate changes in the past century, as described at All of them have been influenced mainly by the same factor: what happened tot the oceans near them.

  5. Brian H permalink
    January 22, 2015 9:59 am

    Duh-Dumb! You never mentioned what the bet is, and what determines the winner!! A faster rise than the previous decade?

    • January 22, 2015 11:58 pm

      The details are here.
      “… If the decade of 2011 – 2020 is cooler or the same on average globally than the decade of 2001 – 2010, then warmist Rob Honeycutt and warmist betters will have to pay to charity the total amount that gets pledged by NTZ and readers betting on a cooler decade.
      If the average global temperature for the decade 2011 – 2020 is warmer than the average of 2001 – 2010, then NTZ and coolist readers will have to pay everything they pledged to the charity…”

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