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Booker On The Hottest Year Claims

January 11, 2015

By Paul Homewood

   

image

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11337317/Was-2014-really-the-hottest-year-ever.html

 

Christopher Booker has picked up on the fact that both RSS and UAH satellite make a nonsense of “hottest ever year” claims.

 

An ever-more curious riddle has arisen over the rush by all the usual suspects to proclaim that 2014 was “the hottest year in history”.

From the Met Office to Nature and the BBC, they’ve all been at it, using as their latest “proof” a graph from the Japanese met office showing global surface temperatures having steadily risen to last year’s peak as the “warmest since records began”.

We know what they’re up to, ever since they began playing it around the time of last month’s UN climate conference in Lima. They are trying to whip up hysteria in support of that global climate treaty they hope to see signed in Paris next December. Their claims may come as a surprise to those in eastern Europe, Russia and the Middle East as far south as Jerusalem, for whom this winter has been unusually cold; let alone those in North America where satellite pictures last week showed Canada and much of the US snow-bound.

But such “anecdotal evidence” apart, what none of these excitable accounts mention is the startlingly different picture given by the two main official records of world temperatures measured by satellites, as published by the RSS (Remote Sensing Systems) and the University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH). These are much more comprehensive than the surface records, which have been increasingly questioned for the gaps in their global weather station coverage and for the regular one-sided “adjustments” made to their data, invariably downgrading earlier temperatures and raising those for recent years.

Both RSS and UAH agree that 2014 was far from being the hottest year ever, ranking it only sixth in the past 18 years, and that there has been no upward trend in world temperatures since 1997. This discrepancy between the surface and satellite records is now so glaring that it should be the subject of a full-scale scientific investigation. But this is no more likely to happen than that the warmists will get that treaty they are dreaming of, committing the world to a devastating reduction in CO2 emissions. India and China, who call the shots, are not taken in by all this nonsense.

 

 

For the record, I have produced an averaged satellite dataset, using both RSS and UAH, which confirms that 2014 ranked only 5th warmest, which is unremarkable for an El Nino year. RSS anomalies, that are normally presented against a baseline of 1979-98, are recalculated against 1981-2010, which is the baseline UAH use.

 

 

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http://data.remss.com/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt

 

The average anomaly for 2014 was 0.215C above the 1981-2010 period.  

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6 Comments
  1. Bloke down the pub permalink
    January 11, 2015 1:58 pm

    Also in today’s ST, in a letter to the editor from a Peter Saunders is a reference to the ‘wind farm farce’ of paying wind farms to switch off when the grid can’t handle the excess generation. His idea is ‘why not leave them generating, pay other producers to reduce output and conserve some non-renewable resources? With stupidity of that order I have little confidence that the demise of the green blob will come anytime soon. My previous efforts to get the editor to publish a rebuttal on green issues have not met with success but there’s always a first time.

  2. January 11, 2015 2:18 pm

    I’ve also tried writing to a variety of newspapers explaining my views on the poor quality science under-pinning global warming predictions without success. The scale of the cover-up is massive and far exceeds what a conspiracy theorist could come up with.

    Even engineering journals are frightened by the “consensus” about the science being proved. The Engineer does allow debate on its web-site: most of which is from skeptics like me and Process Engineering has even published some letters which normally get responses to the effect that 97% of scientists can’t be wrong.

    The problem with the economic arguments is that they are all about long term and politicians and the media are only interested in the next week or few months at most; eg the cost of the CCA is not very large in our immediate family budgets. The long term damage is that high energy using industries will move out leaving us at the mercy of bankers and insurers….

    • 1saveenergy permalink
      January 11, 2015 4:17 pm

      Hi Jack, as a fellow contributor to The Engineer web-site debates I have to say it is heavily moderated, many of my posts containing ‘embarrassing data’ from official/government sources have not been allowed when they conflict with the leader writers opinion.

      As for the papers, I’ve experienced the same, they don’t want to know.

      BUT, you can fly under the radar….I have alerts set up for a huge number of provincial news paper sites, when an article on energy or climate appears I can put appropriate info in to the comments area, a bit laborious but it covers the country & I see many of my links & info being reused by others….so the message spreads.

  3. BruceC permalink
    January 12, 2015 1:16 am

    Paul, I made a comment about the JMA “warmest since records began” ‘claim’ on JoNova, see below;

    http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/does-ocean-ph-shift-with-the-pdo-cycle/#comment-1662583

    (comment #25 if link doesn’t directly take you there).

    The MSM are claiming ‘2014 officially the hottest year ever’, funny thing is, the JMA report is only a preliminary estimate based on January to NOVEMBER observations. What’s also now interesting is JMA have released December figures (for Japan) which are ~2.0°C COOLER than November! (see comment #25.4.1)

  4. BruceC permalink
    January 12, 2015 1:33 am

    Also, the JMA ‘estimate’ for 2014 was for 0.05°C above 1998. I think the yet-to-be-released December NH figures may put a damper on the overall yearly figure.

  5. January 12, 2015 1:45 pm

    True, indeed! I, personally, tend to believe the reality, in this case the images shown by satellites and the historical facts, not the climate model simulations, although they may have an important role…. 2014 it’s definitelly not the hottest year, but we shouldn’t take it into consideration just by looking through this winter’s angle. There have been many hot days and areas which have suffered from the drought, we should keep that in mind. As I use to say, global warming has been the subject of arduous debates for more than 20 years. And most of the claims say that modern civilization is responsible for the higher atmospheric temperatures, which were caused by man-made greenhouse gases.

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